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Class 4A Substate Semifinal Preview

Class 4A Substate Semifinal Preview
Marton Brothers
Tony Roe
Tony Roe February 23, 2024 @ 09:06 AM
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In this article:

Jace McDermott
Jace McDermott 6'2" | SF | 2025
IA
Rahsha Pope
Rahsha Pope 6'0" | PG | 2024
IA
Joe Broderick
Joe Broderick 6'4" | PF | 2024
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Amos Poe
Amos Poe 6'0" | PG | 2024
IA
Connor Welsch
Connor Welsch 6'2" | SF | 2024
IA
Josiah Harrington
Josiah Harrington 6'6" | SG | 2027
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Elijah Reid-Scott
Elijah Reid-Scott 6'1" | PG | 2025
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Charlie King
Charlie King 6'5" | CG/PG | 2027
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Jerimiah Washpun
Jerimiah Washpun 5'11" | PG/SG | 2027
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Carter Light
Carter Light 6'0" | SF | 2026
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Easton Klement
Easton Klement 5'11" | PG | 2026
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Rio Aguirre
Rio Aguirre 6'1" | PG | 2026
IA
Trae Brown
Trae Brown 6'4" | SF | 2025
IA
Elias Vargas
Elias Vargas 5'9" | PG | 2025
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Ben Kerkhoff
Ben Kerkhoff 6'5" | SF | 2025
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Idris Thomas
Idris Thomas 6'4" | SF | 2024
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Jordan Dewaele
Jordan Dewaele 6'6" | PF | 2024
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Wisdom Fode
Wisdom Fode 6'3" | PG | 2026
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William Gerdes
William Gerdes 6'8" | PF | 2026
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Naef Yusuf
Naef Yusuf 6'2" | SG | 2026
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Bilal Yusuf
Bilal Yusuf 6'2" | SG | 2026
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Jayden McGregory
Jayden McGregory 6'1" | PG | 2026
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Julian Manson
Julian Manson 6'3" | SF | 2026
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Evan Jacobson
Evan Jacobson 6'7" | C | 2026
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Tino Daye Jr
Tino Daye Jr 6'0" | PG | 2026
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Etienne Higgins
Etienne Higgins 6'3" | SG | 2025
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Kyle Cason
Kyle Cason 6'0" | SG | 2025
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Trevin Jirak
Trevin Jirak 6'9" | C | 2025
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Davante Bradford
Davante Bradford 6'3" | SF | 2024
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Max Muszalski
Max Muszalski 6'5" | PF | 2024
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Jamarion Readus
Jamarion Readus 6'3" | SG | 2024
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Nick Vaske
Nick Vaske 6'3" | SG | 2024
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Landon Davis
Landon Davis 6'8" | PF | 2026
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Prestige Taylor
Prestige Taylor 5'11" | PG | 2025
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Owen Havlik
Owen Havlik 6'4" | SG | 2024
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Mason Matson
Mason Matson 6'1" | PG | 2025
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Jordan Smith
Jordan Smith 5'9" | PG | 2025
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Payson Nietert
Payson Nietert 6'7" | SF | 2025
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Jaden Rogers
Jaden Rogers 6'6" | SF | 2024
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Jackson Green
Jackson Green 6'3" | SG | 2024
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Owen Schipper
Owen Schipper 6'6" | PF | 2024
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Ridik Meton
Ridik Meton 6'2" | SF | 2024
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Brennan Reid
Brennan Reid 6'7" | SF | 2024
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Brevin Phillips
Brevin Phillips 6'5" | PF | 2024
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Deion Kinnetz-Jenkins
Deion Kinnetz-Jenkins 6'0" | PG | 2024
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Aidan Harder
Aidan Harder 6'3" | SG | 2024
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Dalen Huston
Dalen Huston 6'3" | SF | 2024
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Jack Wynter
Jack Wynter 6'3" | SG | 2024
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Asher Wade
Asher Wade 6'7" | C | 2024
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Fitzgerald Grant
Fitzgerald Grant 6'2" | SG | 2024
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Curtis Stinson Jr
Curtis Stinson Jr 6'5" | SG | 2025
OH
Jalen Richardson
Jalen Richardson 6'4" | SF | 2025
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Jamison Poe
Jamison Poe 5'8" | PG | 2025
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Trey McKowen
Trey McKowen 5'11" | PG | 2025
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Jack McCaffery
Jack McCaffery 6'8" | SF | 2025
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Davis Kern
Davis Kern 6'8" | PF | 2025
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Kiki Deng
Kiki Deng 6'4" | SG | 2025
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Creighton Bracker
Creighton Bracker 6'6" | PF | 2025
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Joey Coppola
Joey Coppola 5'11" | PG | 2024
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Coy Kipper
Coy Kipper 5'8" | PG | 2024
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Cole Arnold
Cole Arnold 6'3" | SF | 2024
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Trey Hughes
Trey Hughes 6'2" | SG | 2024
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Calix Cahill
Calix Cahill 6'5" | PF | 2024
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Jacob Williams
Jacob Williams 6'4" | PF | 2024
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Reid Burkle
Reid Burkle 6'5" | PF | 2024
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Jayden Calabro
Jayden Calabro 5'9" | PG | 2024
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Grant Tigges
Grant Tigges 6'4" | SG | 2024
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Jacob Koch
Jacob Koch 6'1" | PG | 2024
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Luke Winkel
Luke Winkel 6'1" | PG | 2024
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Gage Kampman
Gage Kampman 6'7" | PF | 2024
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Xzavion Robinson
Xzavion Robinson 6'1" | PG | 2025
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Bode Goodman
Bode Goodman 6'2" | PG/SG | 2025
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Cooper Webb
Cooper Webb 6'7" | SF | 2024
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Luke Hart
Luke Hart 5'11" | PG | 2024
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Trevan Krumrei
Trevan Krumrei 6'5" | SF | 2024
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Caden Rubel
Caden Rubel 6'0" | PG | 2024
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David Gorsline
David Gorsline 6'2" | SG | 2024
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TaeVeon Stevens
TaeVeon Stevens 6'1" | PG | 2024
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Kavon Phillips
Kavon Phillips 6'7" | SF | 2024
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Anthony Galvin
Anthony Galvin 6'0" | PG | 2025
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Chase Schutty
Chase Schutty 6'4" | PF | 2024
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Grant Uecker
Grant Uecker 6'3" | PG | 2024
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Tevin Schultz
Tevin Schultz 6'7" | PF/SF | 2026
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Tyron Wright
Tyron Wright 6'6" | PF | 2024
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Cade Courbat
Cade Courbat 6'8" | PF | 2024
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Cyrus Courtney
Cyrus Courtney 6'1" | SG | 2024
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Caden Wilkins
Caden Wilkins 6'7" | SF | 2024
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Mason Costello
Mason Costello 6'3" | SG | 2024
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Jonathan Howard
Jonathan Howard 6'1" | SG | 2024
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Micah Schlaak
Micah Schlaak 6'6" | PF | 2024
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Lio Aguirre
Lio Aguirre 6'3" | SF | 2024
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Kareem Earl
Kareem Earl 6'5" | SF | 2024
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Joseph Bean
Joseph Bean 6'3" | PG | 2024
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Redek Born
Redek Born 6'3" | PG | 2024
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Carson Johnson
Carson Johnson 5'11" | PG | 2024
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Trovary Cavil
Trovary Cavil 5'11" | PG | 2024
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Keysean Moore
Keysean Moore 6'0" | PG | 2024
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Kyler Gerardy
Kyler Gerardy 6'0" | PG | 2024
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Jayden Davison
Jayden Davison 5'9" | PG | 2025
IA
<!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><em>Friday night will see the Class 4A field get cut in half, as we'll trim it down to the Sweet 16. Below we preview each of the 16 substate semifinal games and make our picks to advance to Tuesday's substate finals.</em></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><em>Class 4A postseason picks record: 15-1</em></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph {"fontSize":"medium"} --> <p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>Substate 1</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>#4 Des Moines North (15-8) at #1 Sioux City East (20-2)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>East is red-hot entering postseason play, winners of 14 straight and they are one of three 4A teams to rank within the top 10 in both scoring offense (2nd, 76.9) and defense (7th, 49.0). [player_tooltip player_id='1437607' first='Fitzgerald' last='Grant'] (15.2, 65.8 FG%), a highly efficient guard who thrives playing downhill and getting to the rim, is the leading scorer for the Black Raiders, but this is a deep, balanced, and athletic team that can get up-and-down and turn teams over in bunches. The Yusuf twins, [player_tooltip player_id='1765550' first='Bilal' last='Yusuf'] (11.7, 52.8 FG%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1765551' first='Naef' last='Yusuf'] (7.9), have given them a ton of length and athleticism on the wing, and Manasse Kasongo-Malu (10.1, 8.5 rebounds, 68.2 FG%) is a bouncy rim protector and rim-runner who gives them another dimension in the paint. North has a quick backcourt in juniors [player_tooltip player_id='1874789' first='Wisdom' last='Fode'] (15.0) and Da'corion White (13.0), and senior [player_tooltip player_id='2325327' first='Amos' last='Poe'] (9.4), a trio that can get to the rim off the dribble. The Polar Bears don't shoot it well (26.2 3P%) and have struggled with turnovers (14.6 a game), two areas that could get them into trouble in a hurry in this one.<br><strong>Our pick: Sioux City East</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>#3 Ames (17-6) at #2 Johnston (12-9)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Points will be at a premium in this one, with two of the best defensive coaches in the state matching up here in Vance Downs (Ames) and Courtney Henderson (Johnston). Ames is allowing just 41.7 points a game, 2nd in the class, and they're led by senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1476938' first='Jack' last='Wynter'] (15.0, 38.9 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1381418' first='Jamison' last='Poe'] (11.8, 3.7 assists). Wynter is a skilled lefty with a pure stroke, and he'll need to knock down whatever semi-open looks he gets against an athletic, long Dragons defense. Johnston is led by senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1171658' first='Trovary' last='Cavil'] (14.9, 48.7 FG%), a quick guard who is having his most efficient season, creating off the dribble for himself and his teammates. [player_tooltip player_id='1381420' first='Jalen' last='Richardson'] (10.2, 40.4 3P%) is a potential matchup problem for Ames here, a long and athletic 6-5 wing, and the Dragons have gotten good production out of three more really athletic players - senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1476939' first='Dalen' last='Huston'] (8.6, 59.2 FG%), sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='1765517' first='Tino' last='Daye Jr'] (7.1, 39.5 3P%), and junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1592892' first='Prestige' last='Taylor'] (5.4, 55.4 FG%). This group has a lot of defensive versatility and a number of players they can throw at Wynter. Playing at home, and with a bit more firepower on the offensive end, Johnston is the pick here.<br><strong>Our pick: Johnston</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph {"fontSize":"medium"} --> <p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>Substate 2</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>#4 Urbandale (9-13) at #1 Valley (16-5)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Despite playing shorthanded in both meetings, Valley swept the season series, winning 71-62 on December 5 without [player_tooltip player_id='1288899' first='Xzavion' last='Robinson'] (17.3, 50.0 FG%), and 80-69 on January 19 without [player_tooltip player_id='1381422' first='Curtis' last='Stinson Jr'] (19.4, 51.7 FG%). The Tigers are finally fully healthy and they shouldn't have too many issues getting by the J-Hawks here. Stinson and Robinson are the two headliners for the defending champions, but [player_tooltip player_id='1765532' first='Jayden' last='McGregory'] (10.3), [player_tooltip player_id='1759895' first='Trevin' last='Jirak'] (10.3, 7.7 rebounds), [player_tooltip player_id='1759897' first='Kyle' last='Cason'] (9.8), and [player_tooltip player_id='1381407' first='Kiki' last='Deng'] (9.8) are all high-level players as well. If Urbandale is going to pull off a huge upset, they'll need to get a superlative game from senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1172912' first='Grant' last='Uecker'] (15.7, 41.0 3P%) and forward [player_tooltip player_id='1476942' first='Brevin' last='Phillips'] (13.4, 7.0 rebounds). Uecker is certainly capable of having explosive scoring nights, but against the athleticism and length of the Valley guards and wings, open looks won't be easy to come by. <br><strong>Our pick: Valley</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>#3 Norwalk (17-5) at #2 Council Bluffs Jefferson (18-3)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This is the biggest game that has been played at Council Bluffs Jefferson in a long, long time, and the atmosphere should be incredible. The Yellow Jackets' 18 wins this season are more than they had in the previous five years combined (15), and a senior-heavy team will be looking to keep the good times rolling for a few more days. [player_tooltip player_id='1376681' first='Jayden' last='Calabro'] (20.9) and [player_tooltip player_id='1938205' first='Jordan' last='Dewaele'] (17.4, 8.0 rebounds) are the headliners for a CBTJ team that plays with a chip on their shoulder. They are going to be looking to play physical defense against Norwalk and use their toughness and athleticism to get to the rim on the offensive end. Norwalk will have the best player on the floor in this game in senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1171661' first='Redek' last='Born'] (22.5, 54.1 FG%), who has taken his game to another level during the last month of the year. The future Northern Iowa guard has been incredibly efficient and is in complete control of the game at all times on that end of the floor. [player_tooltip player_id='1476940' first='Aidan' last='Harder'] (10.1, 38.9 3P%) complements Born well, and the Warriors have a pretty deep stable of role players alongside those two that they can rely on. The atmosphere should be incredible, and if this game is called loosely, CBTJ can certainly win here. If it's called tighter, advantage Norwalk. Tight game, edge to the best player.<br><strong>Our pick: Norwalk</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph {"fontSize":"medium"} --> <p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>Substate 3</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>#4 Davenport North (12-10) at #1 Iowa City West (18-3)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Outside of a late-season win against North Scott, North has struggled against the top competition on their schedule, with just that win against a team above .500 this season. The Wildcats are small, but athletic and fast, and they'll look to create some chaos on the defensive end with their speed. Chris Moss (10.2) leads the team in scoring, while five others average between 5.0 and 9.6 points a game. Junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1381414' first='Jack' last='McCaffery'] (15.9, 1.8 blocks) is a 6-8 nationally-ranked prospect who leads West, and with his combination of size, length, and talent, he'll be tough for North to match up with. [player_tooltip player_id='1376672' first='Jacob' last='Koch'] (12.5, 39.0 3P%) is a skilled shooter, as is [player_tooltip player_id='1256297' first='TaeVeon' last='Stevens'] (8.7, 42.4 3P%), while [player_tooltip player_id='1171670' first='Kareem' last='Earl'] (9.0, 54.8 FG%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1765527' first='Julian' last='Manson'] (9.0, 52.6 FG%) are efficient scorers who can create for their teammates. West has been much better defensively this season, especially since the holiday break, looking more like an old-school Trojan team, and their effort on that end of the floor should smother North here.<br><strong>Our pick: Iowa City West</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>#3 Davenport West (16-6) at #2 Bettendorf (15-6)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Bettendorf swept the season series, winning their home meeting 71-45 on January 27, and going to Davenport and winning 59-48 a week ago. The Bulldogs have won eight in a row, and 10 of their last 11, so the Bulldogs are playing really good basketball heading into this one. Senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1171682' first='Caden' last='Wilkins'] (17.8) is the headliner for the 'Dogs, a 6-6 three-level scorer who can take over games as a scorer. [player_tooltip player_id='1951786' first='Ben' last='Kerkhoff'] (10.0, 42.4 3P%) is a sharpshooting wing who complements Wilkins and Tre'Von Coney (8.5, 4.7 assists) well, and [player_tooltip player_id='1476936' first='Asher' last='Wade'] (7.9, 65.7 FG%) gives them some size and toughness in the paint. Senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1945654' first='Idris' last='Thomas'] (19.0, 53.5 FG%) and guard [player_tooltip player_id='1751175' first='Davante' last='Bradford'] (13.0, 4.7 assists) have been really good for West this season, giving them a pair of big-time scorers. Thomas, at 6-6, is armed with a really good mid-range game and can stretch all the way out to the arc, while Bradford is a big, powerful guard who uses his strength to bully his way to the rim. He sees the floor well and is a willing passer. [player_tooltip player_id='2230499' first='Elijah' last='Reid-Scott'] (10.0) gives them some additional playmaking in the backcourt. The Falcons can score, but will they get enough stops against the Bulldogs?<br><strong>Our pick: Bettendorf</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph {"fontSize":"medium"} --> <p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>Substate 4</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>#5 Waterloo East (10-12) at #1 Kennedy (21-0)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>There won't be much drama here, as Kennedy is blasting teams by 36.7 points a game and shouldn't have any issues doing something similar here. Their constant on-ball pressure on the defensive end is not a good matchup here for East, who turns it over nearly 15 times a game. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1381415' first='Trey' last='McKowen'] (13.6, 41.4 3P%) and seniors [player_tooltip player_id='1171667' first='Joseph' last='Bean'] (12.4, 53.6 FG%), [player_tooltip player_id='1171679' first='Micah' last='Schlaak'] (10.5, 62.1 FG%), [player_tooltip player_id='1288851' first='Trevan' last='Krumrei'] 910.3, 45.3 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='1171687' first='Cyrus' last='Courtney'] (9.2, 4.8 assists) lead a potent Cougars attack that is averaging 78.0 points a game, and a ton of Cougars should see playing time in this one.<br><strong>Our pick: Kennedy</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>#3 Linn-Mar (15-7) at #2 North Scott (15-6)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This may be the best game of the night, and it'll be played at one of the best gyms in the state, The Pit. Linn-Mar put on an offensive clinic in their quarterfinal win over Clinton, putting up 107 points. But the 107 points weren't the biggest story of that game, it was the 40 points that [player_tooltip player_id='1484413' first='Payson' last='Nietert'] (10.5, 38.6 3P%) dropped, including going 9-10 from 3. Nietert, a 6-6 wing, has struggled with his shot for a majority of the season, but that showing is an intriguing development. His ability to stretch the floor, and shoot over the defense, would allow junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1381412' first='Davis' last='Kern'] (22.8, 8.9 rebounds, 2.4 blocks) some more room to operate. Kern, a 6-8 forward who can score inside and out, is putting up 57-48-80 shooting splits, protecting the rim, and controlling the glass on both ends of the floor. [player_tooltip player_id='1514455' first='Mason' last='Matson'] (9.1, 3.4 assists) and [player_tooltip player_id='1587402' first='Owen' last='Havlik'] (9.0, 4.1 assists) are solid playmakers in the backcourt, and Matthew Darbounze (6.5, 52.2 3P%) is the consummate glue guy for the Lions, a versatile defender who shoots when open and keeps the ball moving. North Scott is limping into the playoffs, losing two straight to close the year, and four of their last six. The Lancers are led by the senior tandem of [player_tooltip player_id='1476964' first='Brennan' last='Reid'] (13.6, 7.0 rebounds, 46.8 3P%), a 6-6 shooter, and [player_tooltip player_id='1751096' first='Jamarion' last='Readus'] (13.2), a slashing guard who loves to play downhill. Freshman wing [player_tooltip player_id='2309944' first='Josiah' last='Harrington'] (12.8, 46.5 3P%) is an elite shooter, and [player_tooltip player_id='1256295' first='Kavon' last='Phillips'] (9.3) and [player_tooltip player_id='1171656' first='Kyler' last='Gerardy'] (7.0) are experienced players who contribute at a high level on both ends of the floor. Kern is a difference-maker here, and with the Lancers stumbling down the stretch, Linn-Mar goes into Eldridge and comes away with a road win.<br><strong>Our pick: Linn-Mar</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph {"fontSize":"medium"} --> <p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>Substate 5</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>#4 Davenport Central (10-12) at #1 Senior (19-2)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>These teams met in their season openers, a 59-50 Senior win, despite Central knocking down 11 3-pointers and shooting 44% from behind the arc. For a team that shoots 32% from deep on the year, it's hard to imagine the Blue Devils replicating that success here against an athletic and talented Senior defense. The Blue Devils are led by sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='1978112' first='Carter' last='Light'] (11.7) and junior [player_tooltip player_id='1951794' first='Elias' last='Vargas'] (10.4), a pair of quick guards who can break down a defense and get into the teeth of it. [player_tooltip player_id='1484414' first='Jordan' last='Smith'] (8.2, 35.2 3P%) is their best perimeter shooting threat, and Maddox Sullivan (9.6, 6.7 rebounds) has been a solid piece in the paint for them. Central will probably struggle to keep pace with Senior's standout forward tandem of senior [player_tooltip player_id='1376678' first='Jacob' last='Williams'] (17.2, 8.7 rebounds, 64.6 FG%) and sophomore [player_tooltip player_id='1172887' first='Tevin' last='Schultz'] (14.1, 58.1 FG%), a pair of talented big men who can score inside and out, control the glass, and protect the paint defensively. They have too much size for Central here, and the Rams are able to comfortably go seven or eight deep into their rotation with athletic players who contribute on both ends of the floor.<br><strong>Our pick: Senior</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>#3 Prairie (11-11) at #2 Pleasant Valley (16-5)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Prairie's offense has started to really click down the stretch this season, finally getting a full grasp of Todd Kuntz's offensive attack. The Hawks are averaging 68.4 points a game in their last 11, which includes 44-point outings against both Centennial and Senior. Unfortunately for the Hawks, Pleasant Valley more closely resembles Senior than any of the other teams they've played during that stretch on the defensive end, with the Spartans ranking 6th in scoring defense, allowing just 47.8 points per game. If Prairie is going to pull off the upset, they'll need big games from [player_tooltip player_id='1376680' first='Reid' last='Burkle'] (15.8, 57.3 FG%) operating within the mid-range, and [player_tooltip player_id='2397337' first='Jace' last='McDermott'] (12.0, 38.5 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='2124028' first='Austin' last='Joens'] (7.2, 35.7 3P%) knocking down shots from 3. Pleasant Valley got off to a slow 2-3 start this season after reaching the state semifinals last year, but hte Spartans have been really good since the holiday break. Coach Steve Hillman always has this group playing great defense, and this year is no exception. A tough, physical team that uses those attributes to wear down their opponents on both ends of the floor, they're balanced offensively with three players averaging around 11 points a game in [player_tooltip player_id='1376711' first='Coy' last='Kipper'] (11.5, 6.0 assists), [player_tooltip player_id='1751106' first='Max' last='Muszalski'] (11.5, 6.1 rebounds), and [player_tooltip player_id='1256306' first='Caden' last='Rubel'] (11.4, 37.6 3P%). [player_tooltip player_id='1256301' first='David' last='Gorsline'] (9.8, 40.6 3P%) is the other headliner of the group, an athletic and physical combo forward who can defend multiple positions. Going to Bettendorf and beating PV is always tough, and with the way they defend, it's hard to see Prairie going there and knocking the Spartans off unless they make 12 3-pointers.<br><strong>Our pick: Pleasant Valley</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph {"fontSize":"medium"} --> <p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>Substate 6</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>#4 Ottumwa (13-8) at #1 Cedar Falls (18-3)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Like the Waterloo East-Kennedy game up in Substate 4, this one probably won't be competitive for long. Cedar Falls has been fantastic this season, with their three losses coming to Kennedy, Iowa City West, and Assumption by a combined 12 points. The Tigers are deep (10 players averaging at least 3.1 points a game), talented, and long. Sophomore forward [player_tooltip player_id='1765553' first='William' last='Gerdes'] (12.1, 70.9 FG%) leads the team in scoring, one of three averaging double-digits, joined by junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1199979' first='Anthony' last='Galvin'] (11.9, 38.3 3P%) and senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1171693' first='Cade' last='Courbat'] (10.5, 1.6 blocks). Ottumwa is led by junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1951797' first='Trae' last='Brown'] (18.1, 8.3 rebounds), who has been really good this season, and with his combination of size, strength, athleticism, and three-level scoring (53-41-75 shooting splits), he's a difficult matchup, but unfortunately for him and the Bulldogs, the Tigers have some options to throw at him. Ottumwa will need massive, efficient games from Brown and [player_tooltip player_id='2325471' first='Rahsha' last='Pope'] (13.1) if they want to stick around here, but over 32 minutes, Cedar Falls' depth and multitude of scoring options takes over in a big way.<br><strong>Our pick: Cedar Falls</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>#3 Dowling Catholic (12-11) at #2 Waukee Northwest (14-8)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>These teams split during the regular season, with Dowling winning 56-51 on January 5 at home, and Northwest taking the rematch in a blowout, 81-61, on February 6. With each team winning on their home floor, and the Northwest blowout coming more recently, edge Wolves. [player_tooltip player_id='1476967' first='Ridik' last='Meton'] (14.0) leads the Maroons in scoring, a slashing wing who loves to play downhill and get to the rim. [player_tooltip player_id='1378073' first='Joey' last='Coppola'] (13.3, 3.8 assists) is a versatile offensive weapon who can create off the bounce and get to his own shot, and [player_tooltip player_id='2325331' first='Joe' last='Broderick'] (11.8, 11.1 rebounds) has provided some physicality in the paint as well as the ability to step out and stretch the floor. A tough team with really good athletes, nothing comes easy against Dowling. Northwest is 10-2 in their last 12 games, allowing just 46.8 points a game during that stretch. The catalyst of that defensive effort has been sophomore forward [player_tooltip player_id='1643192' first='Landon' last='Davis'] (6.6, 3.5 blocks), who has been one of the best rim protectors in the state this season. An athletic 6-7/6-8 big who can switch and provide versatility on that end of the floor, his emergence has unlocked a lot of things for the Wolves. [player_tooltip player_id='1376673' first='Grant' last='Tigges'] (14.3, 51.3 FG%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1288864' first='Luke' last='Hart'] (9.8, 4.0 assists, 39.1 3P%) are the offensive headliners, and the Wolves are a deep team with eight players averaging at least 3.2 points a game.<br><strong>Our pick: Waukee Northwest</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph {"fontSize":"medium"} --> <p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>Substate 7</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>#4 Southeast Polk (7-16) at #1 Waukee (15-7)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Waukee steamrolled the Rams in both regular season meetings, winning 86-63 on December 1 and 91-53 on February 10. A combined 61-point margin of victory in those games would seem to suggest that the Warriors should roll again here, and it makes sense. Southeast Polk is led by [player_tooltip player_id='1288891' first='Bode' last='Goodman'] (21.0), a talented junior guard who has averaged 25 points in the two games against Waukee, but the Rams simply haven't gotten much production out of anyone else in those games. Waukee seems to be content letting Goodman get his, and then taking away the rest of the Rams with the immense number of long, athletic wing defenders they can throw at you. [player_tooltip player_id='1171683' first='Mason' last='Costello'] (17.9) leads an explosive Waukee offensive attack, a 6-3 wing who can score from all three levels and create for his teammates. [player_tooltip player_id='1765524' first='Evan' last='Jacobson'] (13.2, 9.7 rebounds) and [player_tooltip player_id='1476969' first='Owen' last='Schipper'] (9.5, 7.0 rebounds) have the size to give the Rams some serious problems, and then [player_tooltip player_id='1476990' first='Jaden' last='Rogers'] (8.4, 1.7 blocks), [player_tooltip player_id='1476941' first='Deion' last='Kinnetz-Jenkins'] (7.9, 3.4 assists), JaiShon White (6.2), and [player_tooltip player_id='1171657' first='Keysean' last='Moore'] (3.5) are the aforementioned athletic wing defenders. This is just a bad matchup for SEP.<br><strong>Our pick: Waukee</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>#3 Council Bluffs Lincoln (16-6) at #2 Dallas Center-Grimes (18-3)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1376689' first='Cole' last='Arnold'] (21.4, 53.6 FG%, 43.0 3P%) has been really good this season for Council Bluffs Lincoln, a big, physical wing who can score from all three levels in bunches. [player_tooltip player_id='1759908' first='Etienne' last='Higgins'] (11.6, 39.1 3P%) gives them some additional scoring on the perimeter, and the tandem of [player_tooltip player_id='1978104' first='Easton' last='Klement'] (5.1, 3.5 assists) and Will Costello (3.5, 3.7 assists) are solid playmakers in the backcourt. Unfortunately for the Lynx, they lost [player_tooltip player_id='1381403' first='Creighton' last='Bracker'], their interior presence, to injury, and that will be a significant loss against [player_tooltip player_id='1376674' first='Calix' last='Cahill'] (15.9, 8.1 rebounds) and the Mustangs. Cahill is a big, bouncy 6-7 forward who scores efficiently around the rim, is a good passer, and a really good rebounder, and he should be able to control the paint on both ends of the floor with Bracker sidelined. [player_tooltip player_id='1476975' first='Jackson' last='Green'] (16.2, 41.4 3P%) has had a great year for DCG as a three-level scorer, and [player_tooltip player_id='1171684' first='Jonathan' last='Howard'] (12.6) is a skilled shooter. An experienced team (led by five seniors and a junior) that shares the ball extremely well (21.4 assists, 8.9 turnovers), DCG has a number of weapons who can beat teams from anywhere on the floor, and with the way they play together, they're going to be really tough to beat here. If Bracker was healthy, this one would be interesting. With him sidelined, Cahill should feast.<br><strong>Our pick: Dallas Center-Grimes</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph {"fontSize":"medium"} --> <p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>Substate 8</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>#4 Liberty (11-11) at #1 Ankeny (15-6)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Liberty is playing better basketball down the stretch, winning five of their last six, but the Lightning have struggled in three games against CIML competition this season, losing by 22 against Centennial, 38 against Waukee Northwest, and 13 against Johnston. Will the fourth time be the charm for the Lightning? If it's going to be, they'll need a big-time night from [player_tooltip player_id='1376683' first='Trey' last='Hughes'] (12.0, 35.4 3P%), a streaky shooter who can get scorching hot and carry the team for stretches. Freshman guard [player_tooltip player_id='2118611' first='Jerimiah' last='Washpun'] (7.3) can create off the dribble, and the length of [player_tooltip player_id='1288878' first='Cooper' last='Webb'] (7.9) and [player_tooltip player_id='1288908' first='Gage' last='Kampman'] (7.1, 2.8 blocks) can create some problems on the defensive end. That said, they'll have their hands full with Ankeny senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1171660' first='Carson' last='Johnson'] (23.1, 46.2 3P%), who has been one of the most electric scorers in the state all season. His ability to create his own shot and shoot off the dribble is rivaled by few, and he can absolutely take over a game in the blink of an eye. [player_tooltip player_id='1977422' first='Rio' last='Aguirre'] (14.0, 43.7 3P%) gives them more perimeter scoring, and [player_tooltip player_id='1171676' first='Lio' last='Aguirre'] (12.1, 6.4 rebounds) is a physical wing who thrives playing downhill. The Hawks put a number of good athletic role players alongside those three, giving them a balanced, talented team taht should overwhelm Liberty here. <br><strong>Our pick: Ankeny</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>#3 Roosevelt (7-16)* at #2 Centennial (16-6)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Roosevelt had to forfeit several games due to the use of an ineligible player, but said player wasn't a major contributor so a majority of the roster that won 16 games is in tact. Freshman wing [player_tooltip player_id='2204081' first='Charlie' last='King'] (11.0, 6.4 rebounds, 38.2 3P%) has had some big scoring nights and will need to have another one if the Roughriders are going to pull off an upset here. Brayden Page (8.1), Jecari Patton (6.9), and [player_tooltip player_id='1170334' first='Jayden' last='Davison'] (6.1) are quick guards, and [player_tooltip player_id='1171694' first='Tyron' last='Wright'] (7.8, 7.6 rebounds) gives them some size and athleticism in the paint. The 'Riders will have their hands full with Centennial guard [player_tooltip player_id='1288923' first='Luke' last='Winkel'] (22.1, 4.9 assists, 41.5 3P%), a hyper-talented three-level scoring guard who can take over games as a scorer and playmaker. [player_tooltip player_id='1173129' first='Chase' last='Schutty'] (9.7, 8.9 rebounds, 41.7 3P%) is a tough matchup because of his strength, rebounding, and floor stretching, and [player_tooltip player_id='1751094' first='Nick' last='Vaske'] (8.4) and [player_tooltip player_id='2325295' first='Connor' last='Welsch'] (7.5, 40.0 3P%) are high-quality role players alongside that tandem. Winkel is far and away the best player on the floor and the Jaguars should win this one fairly comfortably, setting up an all-Ankeny substate final.<br><strong>Our pick: Centennial</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph -->

Friday night will see the Class 4A field get cut in half, as we'll trim it down to the Sweet 16. Below we preview each of the 16 substate semifinal games and make our picks to advance to Tuesday's substate finals.

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