Class 4A Substate Semifinal Preview

Substate 1   Sioux City East (11-12) at Dowling Catholic (18-3)   Dowling Catholic is a pretty heavy favorite here, armed with a dominant defense against a Black Raiders team that likes to get up-and-down, but can struggle defensively. The Maroons allow just 49.1 points per game, while East averages 67.1. They need to make this an up-tempo game played in the 70s if they want to have a chance here. If Dowling is able to control the tempo here, which they should be able to do, East will struggle to score against their halfcourt defense, anchored by the shot blocking tandem of [player_tooltip player_id='2617486' first='Charles' last='Crane'] (12.9, 2.8 blocks) and [player_tooltip player_id='2443978' first='Alfred' last='Kolee'] (10.8, 1.0 blocks).   The pick: Dowling Catholic   Sioux City West (16-6) at Norwalk (14-7)   This is another interesting game in Substate 1, with the high-powered Sioux City West team that leads the state in scoring (76.3) heading to Norwalk, who is 8th in scoring defense (49.8). West freshman guard [player_tooltip player_id='3353853' first='Roman' last='Henry'] (26.6, 53.9 FG%) has been unbelievably good this season and is coming off a 52-point outburst in the quarterfinals. At 6-4, he's a big guard who can score from all three levels, and Norwalk will certainly have their hands full with him. He's not alone, with seniors [player_tooltip player_id='3255094' first='Eduardo' last='Frazier'] (19.4, 37.5 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='2204879' first='Kamren' last='Hegna'] (12.8, 40.6 3P%) also being high-level scorers. Norwalk is a solid defensive team and has a star guard of their own in [player_tooltip player_id='2419755' first='Tillman' last='Papcun'] (20.1, 50.7 FG%) who can take over a game. This is another one where whoever dictates tempo should have control.   The pick: Norwalk   Substate 2   Mason City (12-10) at Ames (19-2)   Ames swept the season series, winning by just 10 on December 19, and then blasting Mason City, 71-25, on January 27. The Little Cyclones are once again the top-ranked scoring defense in the class, allowing just 40.5 points per game, and they seem to get even better as the season progresses each and every year. Ames has a number of great on-ball defenders, and their length, toughness, and athleticism makes it really tough to score against them. Offensively, [player_tooltip player_id='1978102' first='Will' last='Thomas'] (13.4) and [player_tooltip player_id='3255125' first='Brandon' last='Johnson'] (10.0, 7.2 rebounds) should be able to do more than enough for Ames to advance.   The pick: Ames   Ankeny Centennial (9-13) at Urbandale (12-8)   Urbandale swept the season series, winning 42-39 on December 12, and 60-39 on January 20. The J-Hawks have a big advantage here with the size of their skilled wings - [player_tooltip player_id='1978111' first='Jake' last='Pargeon'] (17.3), [player_tooltip player_id='1978101' first='Quentin' last='Teeter'] (17.0), and [player_tooltip player_id='1950542' first='Davis' last='Hardersen'] (14.5) - who go 6-5, 6-5, and 6-3. They can score over the smaller Centennial defenders here, and their length will cause issues on the defensive end.   The pick: Urbandale   Substate 3   Liberty (8-14) at Waukee Northwest (18-4)   Liberty guard [player_tooltip player_id='2118611' first='Jerimiah' last='Washpun'] (22.3, 45.7 3P%) is one of the most explosive scorers in the state and is having his most efficient season by far. [player_tooltip player_id='2772349' first='Chase' last='Goodheart'] (15.4, 37.8 3P%) gives the Lightning some more shooting, but those two are going to need to play at an otherworldly level if they're going to pull off this upset. Northwest has the most talented starting five in the state in [player_tooltip player_id='1978099' first='Colin' last='Rice'] (20.7, 9.7 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, 40.4 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1643192' first='Landon' last='Davis'] (14.0, 10.0 rebounds, 3.4 blocks, 58.4 FG%), [player_tooltip player_id='1756989' first='Isaiah' last='Oliver'] (9.8, 5.7 assists, 43.1 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='2419793' first='Mack' last='Heitland'] (9.7), and [player_tooltip player_id='2478747' first='Nash' last='Kooken'] (9.5, 42.1 3P%). The Wolves have too much size, too much length, too much athleticism, and too much talent for Liberty to keep pace.   The pick: Waukee Northwest   Valley (2-19) at Ankeny (11-10)   Ankeny swept the season series, winning 58-52 on December 2, and 72-54 on January 16. Valley, coming off three straight state titles, has had a rough year, but pulled off an upset over Iowa City West to get to this semifinal round. Do the Tigers have an answer for senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1977422' first='Rio' last='Aguirre'] (18.2, 42.9 3P%, 4.1 assists) and junior [player_tooltip player_id='2381210' first='Jasani' last='Campbell'] (15.6, 40.0 3P%)? Those two combined to average 36 points on 53% shooting in the two Hawks wins, and unless Valley finds a way to limit them, it will be another Ankeny win.   The pick: Ankeny   Substate 4   City (8-14) at Cedar Falls (20-0)   Cedar Falls has been dominant this season, rolling to a perfect record with the 4th best scoring offense (70.1) and 3rd best scoring defense (44.2). The Tigers won the regular season matchup, 74-50, on January 9. In that regular season game, the Tigers shot 60% and dished out 22 assists. City had no answer for [player_tooltip player_id='1765553' first='William' last='Gerdes'] (20.6, 74.9 FG%), who had 29 points on 12-13 shooting or for [player_tooltip player_id='1777914' first='Jaydon' last='Kimbrough'] (19.6, 41.5 3P%), who had 26 points on 10-18 shooting. Nothing to be ashamed of there, nobody has had an answer for them, but it's highly unlikely the Little Hawks find an answer here.   The pick: Cedar Falls   Davenport North (13-9) at Linn-Mar (13-8)   North has played well over the last month of the season, going 10-3 in their last 13 games. The Wildcats are led by sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='2595605' first='MarQwan' last='Morgan'] (18.8), the top-ranked sophomore in the state, and he's a player who can put some serious pressure on the Lions perimeter defenders. Morgan is the only player averaging in double figures for the Wildcats, but four others average between 7.0 and 9.8, and they're a really athletic, long team that can frustrate teams defensively. Rebounding will need to be a point of emphasis for North heading into this one, as Linn-Mar senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='2204894' first='Tyler' last='Hilton'] (18.9, 10.6 rebounds) has been among the top rebounders in 4A this season, and if he's able to control the glass, limiting North second chances and getting second chance opportunities for Linn-Mar, the Lions will be in business. This should be a really good, tight game, but Linn-Mar gets the edge at home.   The pick: Linn-Mar   Substate 5   Pleasant Valley (11-11) at Senior (19-2)   Pleasant Valley loves to play a slow, methodical game that limits possessions and looks to suffocate teams on the defensive end, ranking 5th in scoring defense at just 48.3 points per game. That'll be easier said than done against the Rams, who are led by senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1172887' first='Tevin' last='Schultz'] (25.6), one of the state's elite pure scorers. Schultz can dominate games with his ability to score inside and out, and he has really improved as a shot creator for his teammates over the years. The Rams complement him nicely with [player_tooltip player_id='1765555' first='Drake' last='Medinger'] (14.7, 41.8 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1765536' first='Cooper' last='Porter'] (12.4, 45.1 3P%), a pair of high-level shooters, and all of their role players are long, athletic, defensive-minded weapons. Senior has lost twice this season, to Ames and Cedar Falls, teams with a combined 39-2 record, by a combined 6 points. They're on a different level than PV.   The pick: Senior   Kennedy (15-7) at Muscatine (17-4)   This is the Friday game I'm most excited about. Kennedy is really young, starting two freshmen and playing a third significant minutes off the bench, but the Cougars are talented. They've lost just once in their last 12 games, and while Muscatine is one of the best teams they've faced in this stretch of games, they're playing with a ton of confidence and have nothing to lose. Junior [player_tooltip player_id='2164515' first='Jaxson' last='Bean'] (12.3, 5.4 assists) is their leading scorer, and freshmen guards [player_tooltip player_id='2918369' first='Kaden' last='Gomez'] (10.7, 45.9 3P%) and Drew McKowen (8.1, 38.6 3P%) have both been awesome. The Cougars will throw a ton of different defensive looks at you, and they could frustrate this Muskies team. It's nice to see senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1517427' first='Talan' last='Becker'] (17.0, 39.7 3P%) back and healthy this year for Muscatine, leading the team in scoring and he's their best perimeter shooting threat. [player_tooltip player_id='1574870' first='Spencer' last='Biah'] (12.7) is a strong on-ball defender and he'll have his hands full with the Kennedy guards, and senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='3230922' first='Adrian' last='Gonpue'] (10.4, 72.2 FG%) could be the difference-maker here against a smaller Kennedy team.   The pick: Muscatine   Substate 6   Davenport Central (10-12) at Prairie (16-5)   Prairie is a team that had high expectations heading into the season, and after getting off to a slow start, they've caught fire since the holiday break, going 13-3 since the hiatus, with the losses coming to Ankeny, Cedar Falls, and Senior. The Hawks have four players averaging in double figures, and they can really spread teams out with their shooting (37.0 3P%). [player_tooltip player_id='2023719' first='Will' last='Wehr'] (12.2), [player_tooltip player_id='2419791' first='Austin' last='Joens'] (11.4, 41.1 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='2419840' first='Cayden' last='Larson'] (11.4, 37.7 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='2868728' first='Ayden' last='Meier'] (4.8, 40.9 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='2419754' first='Quantae' last='Alexander'] (11.0, 31.8 3P%) are all viable shooting threats, and it opens up everything else they do. Central is overmatched here, as the Hawks have players to throw at standout guard [player_tooltip player_id='1978112' first='Carter' last='Light'], and the Blue Devils don't have enough around him.   The pick: Prairie   North Scott (15-7) at Bettendorf (17-4)   These teams split their regular season meetings, with Bettendorf winning the regular-season finale, 57-51, just eight days ago, and North Scott taking the first meeting, 61-53, on January 20. Each team won on their home floor, which should seemingly give the Bulldogs the edge here. Bettendorf was able to absolutely dominate the glass in the 57-51 win, pulling down 35 rebounds to just 20 for North Scott, an area that will need to be addressed if the Lancers are going to win the rubber match. [player_tooltip player_id='2754678' first='Michael' last='Gordon'] (19.8), Bettendorf's star guard, was just 4-17 in the win, and he'll need to shoot it better in this one, as it's hard to believe that [player_tooltip player_id='2523928' first='Vasaun' last='Wilmington'] (16.5) and [player_tooltip player_id='2309944' first='Josiah' last='Harrington'] (24.7, 50.1 FG%) will be held in check (33 points on 11-31 shooting) to the same level they were in that recent matchup. This one is truly a coin flip, and if North Scott figures out the glass, they can go on the road and win. That's a big if at this point though.   The pick: Bettendorf   Substate 7   Des Moines East (12-10) at Roosevelt (16-5)   Roosevelt swept the season series, winning by 20 points on January 6 and 18 points on January 30. East has had their best year in a long time, but the Scarlets don't have the defensive prowess to slow down [player_tooltip player_id='2204081' first='Charlie' last='King'] (20.8, 51.9 FG%) and the rest of the Riders here. Unless Roosevelt has a really bad shooting night, it's hard to see East keeping pace with Roosevelt here.   The pick: Roosevelt   Dallas Center-Grimes (13-8) at Johnston (13-8)   Dallas Center-Grimes sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='2772348' first='Chase' last='Perrin'] (17.2, 51.7 3P%) has been electric as a shooting threat, a threat to bury 8+ 3-pointers a game, and if he's hot again here, DCG certainly has a chance to pull off this upset. However, Johnston has a slew of high-level perimeter defenders that they can throw at him in [player_tooltip player_id='2419846' first='Nicare' last='Cavil'] (16.5, 2.0 steals), [player_tooltip player_id='1765517' first='Tino' last='Daye Jr'] (11.8, 2.0 steals), [player_tooltip player_id='2116043' first='Joshua' last='Jenkins'] (11.5, 1.6 steals), and Caleb Gbarjolo (6.9, 1.2 steals). The Dragons, who have been really hot since getting Daye back into the lineup, have too many defensive weapons to throw at the 'Stangs here.   The pick: Johnston   Substate 8   Lewis Central (14-9) at Waukee (19-2)   Lewis Central has had a really nice season, winning 14 games and they're set to return their top two scorers in [player_tooltip player_id='2523891' first='Carter' last='Thielen'] and [player_tooltip player_id='2754694' first='Charles' last='Schaben'], who combine to average 32.9 points and 15.2 rebounds per game. That said, they're running into an absolute buzzsaw here. Waukee has won 14 straight games heading into this one, with a bunch of wins over teams who are also playing on Friday night in substate semifinals. Too much [player_tooltip player_id='1765524' first='Evan' last='Jacobson'], too much [player_tooltip player_id='1765539' first='Max' last='Roach'], too much [player_tooltip player_id='1978110' first='Jaishon' last='White'], too much [player_tooltip player_id='2594655' first='Pete' last='Craig'], too much [player_tooltip player_id='2823296' first='Landon' last='Hanson']. Too much Waukee.   The pick: Waukee   Southeast Polk (8-13) at Council Bluffs Lincoln (17-4)   This figures to be one of the tightest games of the night. Southeast Polk, despite the 8-13 record, can't be underestimated here. The Rams have played one of the toughest schedules in the state and aren't going to be intimidated going out to Council Bluffs to play a Lincoln team that is limping into the postseason. In Joshua Charlotin (12.3), Ekihueme Ehikametalor (11.6), and [player_tooltip player_id='1736401' first='Emmanuel' last='Tete'] (10.3), they have some players who can get downhill and attack the rim, putting pressure on the Lynx's interior defense. CBAL has lost three of their last four heading into this game, but they have plenty of offensive firepower of their own in sophomore wing [player_tooltip player_id='2523932' first='Kalan' last='Steinbeck'] (15.0, 44.9 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='2366206' first='Jeremiah' last='Slaughter'] (14.2, 41.1 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='2886791' first='Jake' last='Babbitt'] (12.0, 54.9 FG%), and [player_tooltip player_id='2917306' first='CJ' last='Mosala'] (9.2, 48.6 3P%), among others. They shouldn't have issues scoring, but can they get enough stops against the Rams? We'll give CBAL the benefit of the doubt, getting this one at home, but it will be tight.   The pick: Council Bluffs Lincoln

Substate 1