Class 4A Substate Final Preview

Substate 1: Norwalk (15-7) at Dowling Catholic (19-3)   These teams played in the last week of the regular season, a game won by Dowling Catholic, 63-49. The Maroons jumped out to a 22-7 lead in that game and didn't look back. Their bevy of skilled defenders held Norwalk star guard [player_tooltip player_id='2419755' first='Tillman' last='Papcun'] (21.0, 51.6 FG%) to just 7 points on 3-10 shooting, and unless the Warriors are able to find another way to get him going, the results here could be very much the same. Norwalk didn't have an answer for the duo of [player_tooltip player_id='2443978' first='Alfred' last='Kolee'] (10.7, 8.8 rebounds, 1.0 blocks) and [player_tooltip player_id='2617486' first='Charles' last='Crane'] (12.9, 8.3 rebounds, 2.7 blocks) in the paint in that game, with the two combining for 32 points, 19 rebounds, and 4 blocks. The Warriors are a fairly small team, and the 6-8 Kolee and 6-10 Crane should be able to take advantage of that once again.   The pick: Dowling Catholic   Substate 2: Urbandale (13-8) at Ames (20-2)   This is another rematch of a regular-season game, a 63-57 Urbandale win on January 5. In that game, the J-Hawks shot 56% from the floor and won despite being out-rebounded 37-17. The primary reason for that rebounding edge, [player_tooltip player_id='1765516' first='Marach' last='Dau'], is out with a season-ending injury, which is a significant loss for Ames. In that loss, he pulled down 13 rebounds, including 9 on the offensive end. [player_tooltip player_id='3255125' first='Brandon' last='Johnson'] (10.3, 7.5 rebounds), a senior forward, also pulled down 10 boards in that game, so look for him to be a major factor in this rematch. Ames shot just 35% in the loss, and allowing Urbandale to shoot at such an efficient clip is very un-Ames like. Urbandale has had their best season in recent memory, and the J-Hawks have three big wings in [player_tooltip player_id='1978111' first='Jake' last='Pargeon'] (17.6), [player_tooltip player_id='1978101' first='Quentin' last='Teeter'] (17.0), and [player_tooltip player_id='1950542' first='Davis' last='Hardersen'] (14.4), who go 6-5, 6-5, and 6-3, giving them size advantages over the Ames perimeter defenders. The Little Cyclones are led by senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1978102' first='Will' last='Thomas'] (13.1) and the aforementioned Johnson. They're the #1 scoring defense in the state, allowing just 41.1 points per game, and while Urbandale made them look silly on that end in the first meeting, expect Vance Downs to come up with something to throw at the J-Hawks to make them a little more uncomfortable this time around.   The pick: Ames   Substate 3: Ankeny (12-10) at Waukee Northwest (19-4)   Northwest swept the season series, winning 64-45 on January 9, and 58-49 on February 10. In those two meetings, the Wolves have held the Hawks to 37.8% shooting, with their size on the wing with [player_tooltip player_id='1978099' first='Colin' last='Rice'] (22.0, 9.7 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, 41.7 3P%), in the paint with [player_tooltip player_id='1643192' first='Landon' last='Davis'] (13.9, 10.0 rebounds, 3.4 blocks, 59.0 FG%), and their athleticism with [player_tooltip player_id='1756989' first='Isaiah' last='Oliver'] (9.7, 5.8 assists, 41.8 3P%), being the primary difference makers on the defensive end of the floor. Those three have done a great job defending star wing [player_tooltip player_id='1977422' first='Rio' last='Aguirre'] (18.4) and guard [player_tooltip player_id='2381210' first='Jasani' last='Campbell'] (15.2), who are the only two scorers averaging more than 7.4 points per game for the Hawks. Ankeny recently beat Dowling Catholic, so they know they can play with anyone in the state, but this is just a tough matchup for them with how big, long, and skilled Northwest is.   The pick: Waukee Northwest   Substate 4: Linn-Mar (14-8) at Cedar Falls (21-0)   Cedar Falls swept the season series, 69-65, on December 8 and 67-53 on January 16. In those two games, Linn-Mar really couldn't shoot much better. The Lions were 46-86 (53.5%) from the floor, but they just couldn't get stops, allowing Cedar Falls to shoot 51-97 (52.6%). Which of those totals seems more sustainable given the rest of the season? Clearly Cedar Falls. The Tigers, led by senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1765553' first='William' last='Gerdes'] (20.5, 74.7 FG%), are a remarkably efficient basketball team, shooting just under 58%. [player_tooltip player_id='1777914' first='Jaydon' last='Kimbrough'] (19.4, 41.3 3P%) is an elite shooter from every area of the floor, and their role players - [player_tooltip player_id='1765549' first='Leyton' last='Wolf'] (8.8, 4.8 assists, 61.5 FG%), [player_tooltip player_id='1765505' first='Parker' last='Berns'] (8.0, 52.5 FG%), Carson Gary (6.2), and [player_tooltip player_id='2419830' first='Mason' last='Woltz'] (2.8) - all know their roles and play them well. Linn-Mar will need to get an otherworldly game out of senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='2204894' first='Tyler' last='Hilton'] (18.9, 10.9 rebounds, 53.3 FG%) and junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2114707' first='Karson' last='Rains'] (12.9) if they're going to pull off the upset. Hilton will have to stay out of foul trouble, so don't expect him to get matched up with Gerdes often in an effort to keep him on the floor. Cedar Falls is too efficient, too good. Linn-Mar puts up a fight, but in the end it's the Tigers.   The pick: Cedar Falls   Substate 5: Muscatine (18-4) at Senior (20-2)   Senior has been fantastic this year, a few buckets away from being the top-ranked team in the state. The Rams have lost twice, to Ames and Cedar Falls, by three points each. In the meantime, they've largely been blasting teams, winning by an average of 21.3 points per game on the strength of a dominant trio of scorers and an elite defense. Senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1172887' first='Tevin' last='Schultz'] (25.2, 64.3 FG%) is an elite three-level scorer who can dominate games inside and out. [player_tooltip player_id='1765555' first='Drake' last='Medinger'] (14.6, 44.0 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1765536' first='Cooper' last='Porter'] (12.4, 5.4 assists, 44.8 3P%) are both high-level shooters alongside Schultz, and the rest of the Rams are excellent, long, athletic defenders. They'll have their hands full with Muscatine's [player_tooltip player_id='1517427' first='Talan' last='Becker'] (17.1, 40.3 3P%), a long, athletic wing who can really shoot it from deep. [player_tooltip player_id='1574870' first='Spencer' last='Biah'] (13.0, 58.2 FG%) is a really good on-ball defender who will likely be tasked with trying to take Porter out of the game, and [player_tooltip player_id='3230922' first='Adrian' last='Gonpue'] (10.2, 71.8 FG%) will have his hands full with Schultz. The Rams are an elite defensive team, have the best player on the floor, and have been the more consistently good team this season.   The pick: Senior   Substate 6: North Scott (16-7) at Prairie (17-5)   North Scott junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='2309944' first='Josiah' last='Harrington'] (24.7, 50.3 FG%) is the top-ranked player in the state. An Iowa State commit who can dominate games on both ends of the floor, he has the size (6-7), athleticism, mobility, and talent to be a major matchup problem for the Hawks here. Sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='2523928' first='Vasaun' last='Wilmington'] (16.4, 3.4 assists, 41.6 3P%) is another elite talent, a highly skilled guard who can create off the dribble. He has the ball on a string and is electric with the ball in his hands. Prairie has gone 14-3 since the holiday break, with the three losses coming to Ankeny, Cedar Falls, and Senior. The Hawks are a really balanced offensive team, with their five starers averaging between 7.8 and 12.5 points per game. They're loaded with shooting and can spread the floor out to allow dribble penetration. North Scott is really talented, but Prairie has been the more consistent team playing in the better conference. This should be one of the better games of the night.   The pick: Prairie   Substate 7: Johnston (14-8) at Roosevelt (17-5)   Johnston has won seven straight games heading into this game, and they've been excellent since getting [player_tooltip player_id='1765517' first='Tino' last='Daye Jr'] (12.3, 4.1 assists) back into the lineup. Daye and [player_tooltip player_id='2419846' first='Nicare' last='Cavil'] (16.6, 3.5 assists) combine to give the Dragons a pair of elite ball-handlers, playmakers, and on-ball defenders. Joshua Jenkings (11.3, 42.7 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='2148648' first='Emri' last='Jones'] (6.9, 40.0 3P%), Caleb Gbarjolo (6.7), and [player_tooltip player_id='2419751' first='Darren' last='Grandon'] (4.3) are all long, quick defenders as well. Johnston is loaded with perimeter defensive talent and will have a ton of different options to throw at Roosevelt star guard [player_tooltip player_id='2204081' first='Charlie' last='King'] (20.1, 50.9 FG%). King, an electric three-level scorer who will become the Roughriders all-time leading scorer sometime next season, is capable of dropping 35 on any given night, but with all the weapons Johnston can throw at him, it'll be interesting to see how he, [player_tooltip player_id='2136936' first='Chance' last='Burkett'] (11.6), [player_tooltip player_id='2772350' first='Frank' last='Lee IV'] (11.5), and [player_tooltip player_id='2754693' first='D'Mir' last='Coleman'] (10.2) play.   The pick: Johnston   Substate 8: Council Bluffs Lincoln (18-4) at Waukee (19-2)   Cedar Falls is the only team in 4A hotter than Waukee, who has won 15 straight games heading into this substate final. The Warriors have blasted through their first two playoff opponents, Des Moines North and Council Bluffs Lewis Central, by a combined 84 points. Five Warriors average in double figures - [player_tooltip player_id='1765524' first='Evan' last='Jacobson'] (14.2), [player_tooltip player_id='1765539' first='Max' last='Roach'] (12.6, 49.1 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1978110' first='Jaishon' last='White'] (12.5), [player_tooltip player_id='2594655' first='Pete' last='Craig'] (11.5, 7.9 rebounds), and [player_tooltip player_id='2823296' first='Landon' last='Hanson'] (10.0, 43.0 3P%) - giving them one of the most balanced and potent offensive attacks in the state. Council Bluffs Lincoln is the second highest scoring team in 4A, putting up 72.1 points per game, but they've struggled at times against CIML or other Des Moines area schools to find the same type of offensive output they're accustomed to. Sophomore wing [player_tooltip player_id='2523932' first='Kalan' last='Steinbeck'] (15.0, 44.9 3P%) is the leading scorer, while [player_tooltip player_id='2366206' first='Jeremiah' last='Slaughter'] (14.2, 41.1 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='2886791' first='Jake' last='Babbitt'] (12.0, 54.9 FG%), [player_tooltip player_id='2917306' first='CJ' last='Mosala'] (9.2, 48.6 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='2617477' first='Braylin' last='De Jager'] (9.1, 47.3 3P%) are all viable scorers as well. Can CBAL find enough offense against a stout Waukee defense, and will they be able to get the stops against an equally potent offense?   The pick: Waukee

Substate 1: Norwalk (15-7) at Dowling Catholic (19-3)