Class 4A Substate Final Preview

<!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><em>The Class 4A state tournament field will be determined on Tuesday night with eight substate finals being played all around the state. Below we previewed all eight games and made our picks to punch their tickets to Des Moines. Get out there on Tuesday night and check out some great basketball!</em></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><em>Class 4A postseason picks record: </em>28-4</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Substate 1: #2 Council Bluffs Lincoln (19-2) at #1 Waukee (17-6)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>There are several from Council Bluffs upset that the Lynx have to go on the road for this game, given the fact that they beat Waukee head-to-head, 70-69, on February 1. That said, some context needs to be added, as Waukee star forward [player_tooltip player_id='1765524' first='Evan' last='Jacobson'] (18.1, 8.9 rebounds, 1.2 blocks) didn't play in that game, and CBAL won the rebounding battle 31-20 as a result, including 11 offensive rebounds. Getting that many extra opportunities is a huge edge in what was a 1-point game. With Jacobson back on the floor, the Warriors will be much better on the glass in the rematch. His ability to score inside and out at 6-8, and with his athleticism, he'll be a matchup problem for CBAL. The Warriors are able to surround Jacobson with a ton of shooting as well - [player_tooltip player_id='1978110' first='Jaishon' last='White'] (14.7, 39.2 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1951798' first='Maverick' last='Inman'] (9.3, 50.6 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1765539' first='Max' last='Roach'] (8.4, 35.0 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='2594655' first='Pete' last='Craig'] (7.4, 35.4 3P%). CBAL is led by senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1381403' first='Creighton' last='Bracker'] (16.6, 11.0 rebounds, 53.3 FG%), a dominant rebounder and versatile inside-out scorer. Sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='2366206' first='Jeremiah' last='Slaughter'] (11.2, 44.8 3P%) has been great as a lead ball-handler and shooter. Seniors [player_tooltip player_id='1759908' first='Etienne' last='Higgins'] (9.7) and Aiden Sandbothe (8.7) provide some additional scoring and athleticism, and the backcourt of [player_tooltip player_id='1978104' first='Easton' last='Klement'] (4.7, 4.5 assists) and [player_tooltip player_id='2419843' first='Braylin' last='DeJager'] (5.8) has also been solid in getting teammates involved. CBAL is a good team, but the one big edge that they had in the head-to-head win is now negated.<br><strong>The pick: Waukee</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Substate 2: #2 Johnston (14-8) at #1 Ames (20-2)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Points will be at an absolute premium in this one, a battle between two of the top three scoring defenses in the class. Ames allows just 38.6 points per game, best in 4A, while Johnston gives up 45.3, ranking 3rd. As they showed in a 27-point demolition of Valley, the Dragons can be one of the most dangerous teams in the state. They can also be a bit inconsistent and struggle at times to find offense, as they showed during a four-game stretch in which they scored 48, 38, 41, and 46 points against Northwest, Ankeny, Urbandale, and Dowling. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1765517' first='Tino' last='Daye Jr'] (16.4, 48.8 FG%) is the headliner of the group offensively. He's a talented guard with great handles, and he's among the best isolation scorers in the class. Senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1381420' first='Jalen' last='Richardson'] (11.0, 38.1 3P%) is a long, athletic, versatile defender and three-level scorer, and guards [player_tooltip player_id='2419846' first='Nicare' last='Cavil'] (7.2), [player_tooltip player_id='1592892' first='Prestige' last='Taylor'] (6.4), and [player_tooltip player_id='2384619' first='Ahvyance' last='Taylor'] (2.9) are all really, really good on-ball defenders who make life difficult for opposing ball-handlers. Ames has a more balanced offensive attack, with six players averaging between 6.5 and 10.2 points per game, led by senior guards [player_tooltip player_id='1381424' first='Abe' last='Vos'] (10.2, 51.7 FG%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1381418' first='Jamison' last='Poe'] (9.8, 3.3 assists). [player_tooltip player_id='1951821' first='Manny' last='Lueth'] (9.5, 42.5 3P%) provides more length and athleticism on the wing, and [player_tooltip player_id='1765516' first='Marach' last='Dau'] (8.5, 1.8 blocks) is a great shot blocker in the paint. This is going to be a rock fight, and the first to 35 points may win. I trust the offense of Daye and Johnston a little more, and give the slightest edge to Johnston, but this is going to be a brawl.<br><strong>The pick: Johnston</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Substate 3: #2 Davenport Central (16-7) at #1 Cedar Falls (20-2)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Cedar Falls has been the most dominant team in 4A this season, ranking 6th in scoring offense (70.2) and 2nd in defense (45.1). The Tigers have posted some huge wins against really good teams this season and when they get it rolling, they're nearly impossible to slow down. Junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1765553' first='William' last='Gerdes'] (16.5, 67.8 FG%, 2.0 blocks) has been really good on the interior and can occasionally step out and stretch the floor, shooting 47.8% from the 3-point line. [player_tooltip player_id='1777914' first='Jaydon' last='Kimbrough'] (13.0, 42.2 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1199979' first='Anthony' last='Galvin'] (12.5, 41.1 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1759953' first='Keegan' last='Steege'] (9.1, 39.7 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='1765549' first='Leyton' last='Wolf'] (8.5, 36.7 3P%) are all high-level shooters surrounding Gerdes, and this is a really deep, talented team that gets after you on both ends of the floor. Davenport Central will look to put pressure on Cedar Falls with their quartet of playmaking guards - [player_tooltip player_id='1978112' first='Carter' last='Light'] (17.3), [player_tooltip player_id='1951794' first='Elias' last='Vargas'] (14.1), [player_tooltip player_id='1484414' first='Jordan' last='Smith'] (7.3), and Darrien Manning (7.2) - each of whom is capable of playing downhill and attacking the rim. The Blue Devils will need to live at the free-throw line and knock down some shots from deep if they want to keep this one competitive into the fourth quarter.<br><strong>The pick: Cedar Falls</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Substate 4: #2 Dowling Catholic (15-7) at #1 Linn-Mar (20-2)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Linn-Mar may be the hottest team in 4A, winners of 14 straight games. The Lions haven't lost since a surprising loss to Ankeny in the Crossover Challenge back in early January, a loss that fired up Coach Chris Robertson and seemingly got this team re-focused. Since then they've been absolutely rolling behind the elite play of senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1381412' first='Davis' last='Kern'] (22.6, 9.8 rebounds, 3.2 blocks), who recently surpassed Marcus Paige as the school's all-time leading scorer. A 6-8 forward who can score inside and out, he has been truly dominant on both ends of the floor. Junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='2204894' first='Tyler' last='Hilton'] (11.7, 64.1 FG%) and seniors [player_tooltip player_id='1484413' first='Payson' last='Nietert'] (11.2, 41.0 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1514455' first='Mason' last='Matson'] (10.8, 4.3 assists, 50.9 3P%) are each capable of dropping 20+ on any given night in support of Kern, and the addition of senior guard Eric Wright (7.9, 3.8 assists) has given the Lions a defensive presence on the perimeter. The good news for Dowling is that in junior forward Charlie Crane (11.9, 8.0 rebounds, 3.5 blocks), the Maroons have a player who is capable of hanging with Kern on the defensive end. Crane is a long, athletic 6-8 big man with impeccable timing as a shot blocker, and he's one of the few players in the state that has any chance at potentially slowing Kern down. Classmates [player_tooltip player_id='2731790' first='Noah' last='Martens'] (11.8, 4.0 assists), [player_tooltip player_id='1978098' first='Nathan' last='Jenkins'] (8.2, 59.2 FG%), [player_tooltip player_id='2204869' first='Giovanny' last='Quiles'] (8.1), and [player_tooltip player_id='1383390' first='Maddox' last='Coppola'] (7.0), as well as senior guard Lucas Paoli (8.8), give the Maroons a very balanced attack. The Maroons are tough, athletic, and (probably) a year away. They'll test Linn-Mar, but the Lions are playing on another level right now.<br><strong>The pick: Linn-Mar</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Substate 5: #2 Prairie (19-4) at #1 Senior (16-6)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>These teams met in the regular season finale, also played in Dubuque, a 55-53 Prairie win to claim the MVC. In that game, the Hawks shot 47.6% from the floor (compared to 36.2% for Senior), went 10-22 (45.5%) from 3 (4-17, 23.5% for Senior), and was able to overcome a 31-21 deficit on the boards to come away with a win. The Hawks have been great this season and certainly won't be intimidated going back to Nora Gymnasium for this substate final. They have a ton of shooting in [player_tooltip player_id='2419791' first='Austin' last='Joens'] (12.2, 41.8 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='2023719' first='Will' last='Wehr'] (11.8, 48.8 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='2397337' first='Jace' last='McDermott'] (10.0, 37.4 3P%). They have a pair of athletic slashers in [player_tooltip player_id='2419754' first='Quantae' last='Alexander'] (8.2) and [player_tooltip player_id='2731874' first='David' last='Fason'] (7.6), and a pair of solid big men in [player_tooltip player_id='1951800' first='Devin' last='Ikeda'] (8.1) and [player_tooltip player_id='2419840' first='Cayden' last='Larson'] (6.5). Simply put, they have a number of ways to beat you. That said, if they want to go up to Senior and win again, they'll need to do a better job on the glass against Tevin Schulz (18.6, 7.0 rebounds) and [player_tooltip player_id='1381411' first='Jalen' last='Johnson'] (6.8, 5.9 rebounds), who combined to pull down 23 rebounds in that loss (10 on the offensive end). [player_tooltip player_id='1765555' first='Drake' last='Medinger'] (13.2, 50.0 3P%) is an athletic, dynamic three-level scorer, and the Rams are a team that loves to get after you defensively for all 84 feet. They should do a better job converting those second chances that they're able to grab, and it's not like the first meeting was some sort of demolition. Senior gets revenge in another tight, really competitive and fun game.<br><strong>The pick: Senior</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Substate 6: #3 Davenport North (16-7) at #1 Kennedy (19-4)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>A pair of teams that love to get up-and-down and apply constant pressure on the defensive end will link up here, with Kennedy ranking 2nd in the state in scoring (74.1) and North ranking 10th (67.5). The Wildcats have a trio of double-figure scorers in [player_tooltip player_id='2511598' first='Tenerick' last='Brady'] (14.4, 49.1 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1484415' first='DeAndre' last='Smith'] (13.5), and [player_tooltip player_id='2731773' first='Johnale' last='Johnson Jr'] (10.5), while Jimmy Carter (8.1), [player_tooltip player_id='1288916' first='Cailen' last='Shadrick'] (7.6), and [player_tooltip player_id='2886884' first='David' last='Joiner'] (7.5) have all proven to be capable scorers as well. The 'Cats will look to put pressure on Kennedy and play their game, but unfortunately for them, that plays right into what Kennedy likes to do. Senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1381415' first='Trey' last='McKowen'] (22.7, 5.0 assists, 3.7 steals) has been one of the best players in the state this season, and the Cougars are able to surround him with a number of players who really understand their roles on both ends of the floor. [player_tooltip player_id='1951791' first='Reuben' last='Schlaak'] (12.3, 46.7 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='2399474' first='Sharief' last='Thomas'] (7.0, 40.7 3P%) are both quality shooting threats alongside McKowen, and [player_tooltip player_id='1381406' first='Landon' last='Deiters'] (9.1) has been playing great basketball on both ends. Kennedy has the best player on the floor and gets this one at home.<br><strong>The pick: Kennedy</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Substate 7: #2 Sioux City East (19-3) at #1 Waukee Northwest (20-3)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Northwest has been red-hot, winners of 10 straight games, and they're the only team in 4A to rank within the top 5 in both scoring offense (4th, 72.1) and defense (5th, 50.0). Senior guards [player_tooltip player_id='1288891' first='Bode' last='Goodman'] (17.2, 5.0 assists, 51.8 FG%) and [player_tooltip player_id='2119115' first='Peyton' last='McCollum'] (13.2, 5.6 assists, 41.5 3P%) are the leaders of the group. Both are reliable playmakers and versatile scorers. [player_tooltip player_id='1978099' first='Colin' last='Rice'] (11.7, 40.3 3P%) and classmate [player_tooltip player_id='1643192' first='Landon' last='Davis'] (10.0, 3.7 blocks) are both long, athletic players who make a major impact on the defensive end with their length and overwhelming size, and [player_tooltip player_id='2419793' first='Mack' last='Heitland'] (7.3, 51.1 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1756989' first='Isaiah' last='Oliver'] (5.2) provide more scoring, albeit in very different ways. Few teams in the state are as long and athletic as East, led by a quartet of double-figure scorers: [player_tooltip player_id='1540183' first='Manasse' last='Kasongo Malu'] (13.8, 10.5 rebounds), [player_tooltip player_id='1765550' first='Bilal' last='Yusuf'] (12.6), [player_tooltip player_id='2265812' first='Fami' last='Yusuf'] (11.6), and [player_tooltip player_id='2520031' first='Chris' last='Loggins'] (10.8). [player_tooltip player_id='1765551' first='Naef' last='Yusuf'] (9.7) and [player_tooltip player_id='2442409' first='Jang' last='Ruei'] (9.2) provide some scoring and athleticism on the wing, and [player_tooltip player_id='1978132' first='Jack' last='Ohman'] (6.2) has been a steady presence in the paint. The Black Raiders love to get up-and-down, using their length and athleticism to force turnovers and get out in transition. Things can bog down a bit if they're forced into a halfcourt game, and that's where Northwest would have a real edge with their shotmaking and playmaking in the backcourt.<br><strong>The pick: Waukee Northwest</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Substate 8: #3 Dallas Center-Grimes (19-5) at #1 Valley (19-3)</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Dallas Center-Grimes got 46 points from [player_tooltip player_id='1759897' first='Kyle' last='Cason'] (23.7, 8.0 rebounds, 50.3 FG%) to get past Ankeny in the semifinals, setting up this oh so juicy matchup. Cason was a big part of back-to-back state title teams at Valley, and is now coming back to West Des Moines to try and end the Tigers' chance at a 3-peat. He has had a sensational senior season, and will certainly give it everything he has here, but he's going to be going up against an incredibly athletic, long Tigers defense that will be able to throw a ton of different looks at him. Senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1759895' first='Trevin' last='Jirak'] (16.3, 8.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.0 blocks) has been fantastic to lead the Tigers this season and is a matchup problem for any team in the state with his size, mobility, and vision. [player_tooltip player_id='1288899' first='Xzavion' last='Robinson'] (16.2, 52.0 FG%) is one of the most dynamic athletes in the state, and wings [player_tooltip player_id='1765532' first='Jayden' last='McGregory'] (15.4) and [player_tooltip player_id='1381407' first='Kiki' last='Deng'] (12.3) are among the most athletic, long defenders you'll find on the wing. Expect McGregory, Deng, Robinson, and even potentially some trapping or junk defenses to be thrown at Cason. If DCG is going to pull off the upset, they'll need to get significant contributions from guys like [player_tooltip player_id='1759907' first='Tate' last='Perrin'] (10.9, 39.4 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='2772348' first='Chase' last='Perrin'] (6.1, 43.4 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='2204886' first='Mateo' last='Dzolota'] (8.8, 6.2 assists) because a lot of defensive attention is going to be paid to Cason.<br><strong>The pick: Valley</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph -->