Class 4A Substate Final Preview

Substate 1: Sioux City East (21-2) vs. Johnston (13-9) [at Fort Dodge]   Despite being a pretty heavy favorite, East had to escape with a 73-68 win over Des Moines North in the substate semifinals, while Johnston squeaked past Ames, 48-44. The high-powered Black Raiders are averaging 73.6 points per game behind a deep rotation of long, athletic players who fly around on the defensive end and look to push the tempo whenever they can. They're led by senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1437607' first='Fitzgerald' last='Grant'] (15.6, 66.4 FG%), a highly efficient guard who thrives attacking off the dribble and getting to the rim. [player_tooltip player_id='1765550' first='Bilal' last='Yusuf'] (11.3) and [player_tooltip player_id='1765551' first='Naef' last='Yusuf'] (7.9) are a pair of talented, athletic sophomore wings, and Manasse Kasongo-Malu (10.1, 8.4 rebounds) has given East some size, rebounding, and rim protection in the paint. Nine players average at least 3.1 points a game, so Ras Vanderloo can comfortably go deep into his bench. Johnston counters with their own stable of long, athletic wing defenders to combat the East offensive attack. [player_tooltip player_id='1381420' first='Jalen' last='Richardson'] (10.5, 5.9 rebounds, 42.6 3P%) is a 6-5 wing who can defend multiple positions, score from all three levels, and create for his teammates. His versatility on the defensive end will be a major asset in this matchup. [player_tooltip player_id='1476939' first='Dalen' last='Huston'] (8.4, 56.8 FG%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1592892' first='Prestige' last='Taylor'] (5.6, 55.1 FG%) are also athletic defenders who can guard multiple players, while [player_tooltip player_id='1765517' first='Tino' last='Daye Jr'] (7.0) is a quick guard who can defend well on the ball. The best offensive player for the Dragons is [player_tooltip player_id='1171658' first='Trovary' last='Cavil'] (14.8), who is having by far his most efficient season, posting 48-42-91 shooting splits, and he's the type of dynamic playmaking guard who can take over a game as a scorer and facilitator. East has been the more consistent team throughout the year, and should be considered the favorite, but it wouldn't be a surprise at all if Johnston picked up the win here. The pick: Sioux City East   Substate 2: Valley (17-5) vs. Norwalk (18-5) [at Des Moines Lincoln]   These teams played twice in 2023 - once at the state tournament and once during this regular season - both Valley wins. And in both of those wins, the Tigers did an excellent job defensively against Norwalk star guard [player_tooltip player_id='1171661' first='Redek' last='Born'] (22.7, 53.4 FG%). Born averaged just 13 points on 10-39 shooting in those two games, and with the overwhelming athleticism and length of the defenders that Valley can throw at him, it's hard to see the Warriors finding enough offense to upset the defending champion Tigers here. He's the do-it-all guard who initiates the offense and is the primary scorer, and if Norwalk had one more creator who could allow Born to operate off the ball a bit more, they may have a chance to spring the upset here. But as constructed, they'll need Born to have a fantastic game and off-ball guards [player_tooltip player_id='1476940' first='Aidan' last='Harder'] (10.3, 40.2 3P%) and Timothy Koerselman (7.1, 35.6 3P%) to knock down nearly every open look they get. Valley has dealt with injuries to their top two players - [player_tooltip player_id='1381422' first='Curtis' last='Stinson Jr'] (19.7, 6.9 rebounds, 52.5 FG%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1288899' first='Xzavion' last='Robinson'] (16.7, 50.0 FG%) - throughout the year, and the two haven't played in many games together this season. They're both healthy and back in the lineup now, and this is right around when the Tigers took off last season, steamrolling their way through the postseason and winning a state title led by a ton of sophomores. [player_tooltip player_id='1759895' first='Trevin' last='Jirak'] (10.1, 1.8 blocks, 7.7 rebounds), [player_tooltip player_id='1381407' first='Kiki' last='Deng'] (9.9), and [player_tooltip player_id='1759897' first='Kyle' last='Cason'] (9.6) were all huge contributors for that state title winning team, and they've added another long, athletic defender in [player_tooltip player_id='1765532' first='Jayden' last='McGregory'] (10.3), who helps raise the ceiling of this team even higher. Too much length, too much athleticism, too much talent. The pick: Valley   Substate 3: Iowa City West (19-3) vs. Bettendorf (16-6) [at Alliant Energy PowerHouse]   The first tournament ticket will be punched in this one, as the table setter of a good doubleheader in downtown Cedar Rapids will start at 6:30, and it will feature two of the best college prospects in the state will meet up in this one in Iowa City West junior [player_tooltip player_id='1381414' first='Jack' last='McCaffery'] (15.9, 3.3 assists, 1.8 blocks) and Bettendorf senior [player_tooltip player_id='1171682' first='Caden' last='Wilkins'] (18.6, 3.0 assists, 1.2 blocks). West has been more of a traditional Trojans team this season, showing improvement on the defensive end and a balanced offensive attack to complement McCaffery. [player_tooltip player_id='1376672' first='Jacob' last='Koch'] (12.5, 39.0 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1171670' first='Kareem' last='Earl'] (9.0, 54.8 FG%), [player_tooltip player_id='1765527' first='Julian' last='Manson'] (9.0, 52.6 FG%), and [player_tooltip player_id='1256297' first='TaeVeon' last='Stevens'] (8.7, 50.9 FG%) are all capable scorers alongside McCaffery who move the ball well and knock down open looks. Ball security has been an issue at times this season for West, turning it over 17.3 times a game in their three losses, and that will need to be addressed against an athletic Bettendorf defense. Wilkins is one of the most explosive scorers in the state, a 6-6 wing who can take over the game in a hurry with his ability to score from all three levels, and junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1951786' first='Ben' last='Kerkhoff'] (10.3, 44.4 3P%) has emerged as a reliable shooting threat alongside Wilkins and slashing lead guard Tre'Von Coney (8.2, 4.9 assists). Whichever team gets better production out of the role players will win, slight advantage West. This one is tight throughout. The pick: Iowa City West   Substate 4: Kennedy (22-0) vs. North Scott (16-6) [at Alliant Energy PowerHouse]   Kennedy has absolutely blasted teams this season, winning games by an average of 37.2 points per game behind the #1 ranked scoring offense (78.6 points per game) and the #1 scoring defense (41.4). Only one game this season has been decided by single digits, and while the Cougars haven't played against the most difficult schedule this year, there is no denying how dominant they have been. Four players average in double-figures, and seven others average between 3.6 and 9.0 points per game, giving them a ton of depth and versatility on both ends of the floor. The backcourt of [player_tooltip player_id='1381415' first='Trey' last='McKowen'] (13.7, 4.2 assists, 41.7 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1171667' first='Joseph' last='Bean'] (12.7, 54.9 FG%) are reliable ball-handlers and playmakers, and senior [player_tooltip player_id='1171687' first='Cyrus' last='Courtney'] (9.0, 4.9 assists, 3.1 steals) hasn't put up eye-popping numbers, but he has absolutely dominated some games this season (see: Iowa City West) with his athleticism, size, and two-way talent. [player_tooltip player_id='1288851' first='Trevan' last='Krumrei'] (10.5, 45.5 3P%) is a knockdown shooter, and [player_tooltip player_id='1171679' first='Micah' last='Schlaak'] (10.3, 60.8 FG%) is a dynamic inside-out scorer. Coach Jon McKowen may be the best defensive coach in the state, and with their varied looks that they throw at teams throughout games, they frustrate teams on that end of the floor routinely. North Scott has had an up-and-down year this season, but when they're playing well, they may be a top-5 team in the state, so this isn't going to be a cakewalk for the Cougars. [player_tooltip player_id='1476964' first='Brennan' last='Reid'] (13.5, 7.4 rebounds, 45.7 3P%) leads an athletic Lancers team that plays good defense and pounds the glass on the offensive end of the floor hard. [player_tooltip player_id='1751096' first='Jamarion' last='Readus'] (13.2) has given the Lancers an athletic, slashing guard who can create off the dribble, and freshman wing [player_tooltip player_id='2309944' first='Josiah' last='Harrington'] (12.9, 45.6 3P%) is the type of calm, poised sharpshooter who can knock down open looks and won't be intimidated by a big game. North Scott needs to get off to a good start in this one, as Kennedy buries teams if they get out of the gates quick, but if the Lancers can hang around for the first 16 minutes, this could be interesting. The pick: Kennedy   Substate 5: Senior (20-2) vs. Pleasant Valley (17-5) [at Hempstead]   Points will be at a premium in this one, with Senior ranking 3rd in the class in scoring defense, allowing just 45.5 points per game, and Pleasant Valley checking in right behind them, giving up 47.1. Senior will have the best player on the floor in this one in senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1376678' first='Jacob' last='Williams'] (17.2, 8.7 rebounds, 64.6 FG%), who has been a highly efficient, dominant interior force this season after having one of the best summers of anyone in the state. An athletic lefty who can create off the dribble, score on post touches, and stretch the floor, he's a really difficult matchup for anyone. Sophomore forward [player_tooltip player_id='1172887' first='Tevin' last='Schultz'] (14.1, 58.1 FG%) gives them some more size, a 6-7/6-8 forward who can stretch the floor and provide some versatility defensively, and the Rams have a number of athletic options to throw at you on both ends of the floor with games that complement Williams and Schultz well. Pleasant Valley got off to a slow 2-3 start this season but have gone 15-2 since, and cracking their defense is never an easy task. Senior guards [player_tooltip player_id='1376711' first='Coy' last='Kipper'] (11.9, 6.1 assists) and [player_tooltip player_id='1256306' first='Caden' last='Rubel'] (11.3, 38.2 3P%) give them a pair of reliable ball-handlers and playmakers in the backcourt, while [player_tooltip player_id='1751106' first='Max' last='Muszalski'] (11.3, 6.1 rebounds), [player_tooltip player_id='1256301' first='David' last='Gorsline'] (9.9, 5.4 rebounds, 40.6 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='1759910' first='Max' last='Schmeltzer'] (3.4, 4.0 rebounds) give them size and toughness in the paint. Two of the most underappreciated coaches in the state in Steve Hillman (PV) and Wendell Eimers (Senior) will have their teams ready to go, and expect this to be played within a possession or two for most of the night. In a tight game, we usually side with the best player on the floor, which gives Senior a slight edge, but neither result would surprise us here. The pick: Senior   Substate 6: Cedar Falls (19-3) vs. Waukee Northwest (15-8) [at Marshalltown]   The competition hasn't been great by any means, but there is no denying that Cedar Falls' offense is clicking on all cylinders right now, averaging 93.3 points a game in their last three games. They've lost just three times this season - to Kennedy, Iowa City West, and Assumption - by a combined 12 points, and they're playing their best basketball of the season now. Sophomore forward [player_tooltip player_id='1765553' first='William' last='Gerdes'] (12.2, 71.8 FG%) leads a balanced attack of offensive weapons. Gerdes is one of the best sophomores in the state and he has the ability to dominate teams on the block with his footwork and touch. [player_tooltip player_id='1199979' first='Anthony' last='Galvin'] (11.2, 38.1 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1171693' first='Cade' last='Courbat'] (11.1, 1.5 blocks) are the other top scorers, but the Tigers are an extremely deep team that sees seven others averaging between 3.2 and 9.1 points a game, giving them a number of options to turn to. Northwest has been really good on the defensive end this season, largely because of the emergence of sophomore forward [player_tooltip player_id='1643192' first='Landon' last='Davis'] (6.6, 5.7 rebounds, 3.4 blocks), who has been fantastic as a rim protector. He'll be tasked with defending Gerdes, but he's a versatile piece who rotates well and can defend multiple positions, so Brett Watson can deploy him in a number of ways. Senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1376673' first='Grant' last='Tigges'] (14.5, 6.9 rebounds, 51.3 FG%) was the only returning starter from last year's runner-up team, and he has been good once again on the offensive end, while [player_tooltip player_id='1288864' first='Luke' last='Hart'] (9.7, 4.0 assists, 39.2 3P%) has emerged as a reliable playmaker and shooter. [player_tooltip player_id='1951798' first='Maverick' last='Inman'] (6.8, 37.3 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='2124066' first='Mack' last='Heitland'] (5.8, 42.4 3P%) provide more shooting, which will be beneficial against a Tigers team with some length, athleticism, and beef in the paint. This one should be a lot of fun, with two of the hottest teams in the class matching up, but we'll give the slight edge to the Tigers and their depth of options. The pick: Cedar Falls   Substate 7: Waukee (16-7) vs. Dallas Center-Grimes (19-3) [at Indianola]   Few teams in the state have had as many impressive wins as Waukee has had this season, posting victories against Ankeny (twice), Northwest (twice), Centennial (twice), Johnston, and Valley. That's eight wins over teams that are playing for state tournament berths tonight, and that's despite losing four starters from a state semifinalist. The Warriors are led by senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1171683' first='Mason' last='Costello'] (18.1, 3.1 assists, 37.3 3P%), who was the lone returning starter this season. He has been dynamic as a three-level scorer and playmaker, pacing an offensive attack that is 4th in the class in scoring at 70 points per game. The Warriors have good size in the paint in forwards [player_tooltip player_id='1765524' first='Evan' last='Jacobson'] (13.1, 9.8 rebounds) and [player_tooltip player_id='1476969' first='Owen' last='Schipper'] (9.6, 7.0 rebounds), giving them a few different bodies that they can throw at DCG standout big [player_tooltip player_id='1376674' first='Calix' last='Cahill'] (15.6, 7.9 rebounds, 63.5 FG%), and they also have a slew of athletic wing defenders in [player_tooltip player_id='1476990' first='Jaden' last='Rogers'] (8.3, 4.5 rebounds), [player_tooltip player_id='1476941' first='Deion' last='Kinnetz-Jenkins'] (7.7, 3.3 assists), Jai White (6.2), and [player_tooltip player_id='1171657' first='Keysean' last='Moore'] (3.7). That quartet will come in handy against the Mustangs' backcourt of [player_tooltip player_id='1476975' first='Jackson' last='Green'] (16.3, 41.3 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1171684' first='Jonathan' last='Howard'] (12.6, 35.5 3P%), a pair of shooters who can get scorching hot and burn teams from deep. DCG has done a really good job protecting the ball this season, averaging under nine turnovers a game, but the athleticism and length of this Warriors team is a tough matchup for the 'Stangs. The pick: Waukee   Substate 8: Ankeny (16-6) vs. Ankeny Centennial (17-6) [at Southeast Polk]   Will the entire town of Ankeny make the trip down to Altoona tonight for this one? It should be an electric atmosphere with the crosstown rivals meeting with a trip to the state tournament on the line. These teams split during the regular season, with each winning at home - Centennial 64-52 on December 19, and Ankeny 76-63 on February 2. The star guards for each team were unbelievable in the February 2 meeting, with Centennial's [player_tooltip player_id='1288923' first='Luke' last='Winkel'] (22.1, 4.8 assists, 49.9 FG%, 42.2 3P%) going for 37 points on 11-21 shooting (6-10 3P, 9-10 FT) and Ankeny's [player_tooltip player_id='1171660' first='Carson' last='Johnson'] (23.7, 3.6 assists, 51.6 FG%, 48.1 3P%) going for 38 points on 12-17 shooting (5-7 3P, 9-10 FT). Those two have been arguably the best players in the class this season, both really good three-level scorers who can create their own shots off the dribble and take over games as scorers or facilitators. If the two meetings this season are any indication, they're both going to get theirs, so this game will be ultimately decided by the other rotation pieces for both teams. For Centennial, that means [player_tooltip player_id='1173129' first='Chase' last='Schutty'] (9.5, 8.8 rebounds, 41.3 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1751094' first='Nick' last='Vaske'] (8.2), and [player_tooltip player_id='2325295' first='Connor' last='Welsch'] (7.5, 40.3 3P%). For Ankeny, that means [player_tooltip player_id='1977422' first='Rio' last='Aguirre'] (13.6, 42.6 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1171676' first='Lio' last='Aguirre'] (12.2, 6.4 rebounds), and [player_tooltip player_id='1751178' first='Cash' last='Schoolen'] (7.8, 57.0 FG%). Ankeny is the better offensive team, Centennial the better defensive team. With the Ankeny win coming in the more recent matchup, slight edge Hawks in this one, but it should be fantastic. The pick: Ankeny

Substate 1: Sioux City East (21-2) vs. Johnston (13-9) [at Fort Dodge]