Class 4A Substate Semifinal Preview

Friday night will see the Class 4A field get cut in half, as we'll trim it down to the Sweet 16. Below we preview each of the 16 substate semifinal games and make our picks to advance to Tuesday's substate finals.   Class 4A postseason picks record: 13-3   Substate 1   Sioux City West (12-11) at Norwalk (18-3)   Few teams in 4A are hotter than Norwalk, who have won 14 straight games heading into their postseason opener. The Warriors are allowing just 47.4 points a game, good for fifth in the class, and have been led offensively by junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1171661' first='Redek' last='Born'] (17.8, 5.0 assists), who seems to have really found himself this year after playing in the shadows of his older brother the last few seasons. A high IQ guard who can score from all three levels with efficiency, Born is posting 52-40-83 shooting splits and has shown a willingness to take smaller defenders onto the block to either score or initiate the offense, inverting the usual attack. [player_tooltip player_id='1239874' first='Braeden' last='Carlson'] (15.0, 7.9 rebounds) is a bouncy, athletic forward who scores around the rim and rebounds well on both ends, and [player_tooltip player_id='1476940' first='Aidan' last='Harder'] (10.0, 34.8 3P%) and Jack Brown (8.3, 38.5 3P%) are capable shooting threats from deep. Sioux City West is led by a pair of athletic guards who could give the Warriors some problems in [player_tooltip player_id='1469827' first='Lamarion' last='Mothershead'] (16.5) and [player_tooltip player_id='1167668' first='Keavian' last='Hayes'] (15.7). Both are quality scoring threats who can get to the rim and put pressure on opposing defenses. The issue for the Wolverines usually isn't scoring, it's defending. And they'll have their hands full with a very disciplined Norwalk team. Our pick: Norwalk   Johnston (11-11) at Sioux City East (20-2)   Sioux City East has done what has been expected of them this season, winning games by an average of 21 points a game behind a high-powered attack that sees two players averaging in double figures and two others just shy of that mark. The Black Raiders are led by [player_tooltip player_id='1437607' first='Fitzgerald' last='Grant'] (14.5) and [player_tooltip player_id='1196279' first='Preston' last='Dobbs'] (14.4, 50.7 3P%), a pair of reliable perimeter scorers who can fill it up from anywhere on the floor. They feature a number of ball handlers who can initiate the offense, and they do a good job sharing the rock, getting everyone a piece of the offense. Johnston, meanwhile, has gone through the meatgrinder of the CIML this season and is playing their best basketball now. This is a team that was relatively inexperienced coming into the season, but they're athletic, quick, physical, and play really good defense. [player_tooltip player_id='1381420' first='Jalen' last='Richardson'] (11.2), Taylen Proctor (9.4), and [player_tooltip player_id='1592892' first='Prestige' last='Taylor'] (7.7) are all really good on-ball defenders on the perimeter, and in [player_tooltip player_id='1469513' first='Samuel' last='Tornabane'] (10.4, 1.5 blocks), the Dragons have a high-level rim protector. They don't have a dominant scorer, but they shoot it well from deep (39.7% as a team), and I think that their athleticism is going to wear down East here. Look for the Dragons to slow this one down to their preferred speed and frustrate the Black Raiders. The difference in quality of leagues between the CIML and MRAC shows itself here. Our pick: Johnston   Substate 2   Iowa City West (12-10) at Centennial (14-7)   Iowa City West has had an up-and-down year. Some of that can be attributed to an injury to [player_tooltip player_id='1171670' first='Kareem' last='Earl'] (10.7, 46.7 3P%), who missed a significant chunk of time and the Trojans lost a number of one-possession games in his absence. Some of that can also be contributed to youth - the top five scorers are all underclassmen. This is a talented team led by sophomore wing [player_tooltip player_id='1381414' first='Jack' last='McCaffery'] (16.6, 36.8 3P%, 4.0 blocks), a 6-8 wing who can stretch the floor with a buttery stroke as well as dominate the paint as a shot blocker. Earl is an athletic wing who can score from all three levels, and [player_tooltip player_id='1376672' first='Jacob' last='Koch'] (10.1, 40.2 3P%) is a reliable shooter from deep. When the Trojans are playing well, they can beat just about anyone in the state. But they have been taken out of what they want to do offensively at times, and Centennial can do that to them here. [player_tooltip player_id='1288923' first='Luke' last='Winkel'] (16.8, 5.1 assists) has been one of the most improved players in the state this year, a versatile, quick guard who is equally content scoring or getting his teammates involved. [player_tooltip player_id='1240076' first='Evan' last='Bryan'] (10.2, 38.7 3P%), a long wing defender, has emerged as a reliable shooter, and [player_tooltip player_id='1751094' first='Nick' last='Vaske'] (9.2), [player_tooltip player_id='1240066' first='Drew' last='Schreurs'] (7.7), and [player_tooltip player_id='1256299' first='Chase' last='Schutty'] (5.3, 6.8 rebounds) are all quality role players who do their jobs. The Jaguars are good defensively and there is a significant gap between the CIML and MVC this season. Our pick: Centennial   Dowling Catholic (10-12) at Cedar Falls (15-5)   Cedar Falls senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='956870' first='Dallas' last='Bear'] (20.0, 9.6 rebounds, 38.3 3P%) is the best player on the floor here. A 6-8 sharpshooter who has taken his game to another level this year, Bear is capable of getting scorching hot and dropped 20 points in a single quarter, but if the Dowling defense focuses on taking him away, the Tigers have a few other dangerous weapons who can make them pay. Sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='1199979' first='Anthony' last='Galvin'] (12.6, 40.4 3P%) is a high-level shooter off both the dribble and the catch who can also create plays for his teammates, and junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1171693' first='Cade' last='Courbat'] (12.6, 2.7 blocks) is a hyper-athletic big man who runs the floor, protects the rim, and finishes above it with authority. Dowling is athletic, led by senior [player_tooltip player_id='1288853' first='Andrew' last='Mauro'] (11.6) and junior [player_tooltip player_id='1378073' first='Joey' last='Coppola'] (10.5), but the Maroons can struggle at times to score. They're shooting just 39.4% from the floor as a team, and 29.7% from 3. They can certainly hang with the Tigers here, but that type of inconsistency on the offensive end proves to be too much to overcome and Cedar Falls advances to the substate final behind a big Bear game. Our pick: Cedar Falls   Substate 3   Muscatine (6-16) at Senior (18-3)   Muscatine comes into this one riding high off their upset of Davenport Central in the quarterfinals. The Muskies had lost by 31 points to the Blue Devils just six days before that game, then turned around and beat them by 11. However, they'll find it much more difficult to score against Senior here. The Rams are the #1 scoring defense in the class, allowing just 42.9 points a game, using their blend of athleticism, length, depth, and varying defensive looks to frustrate opponents all season. Junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1376678' first='Jacob' last='Williams'] (12.3, 7.5 rebounds) leads a balanced scoring attack for Senior that sees seven players averaging at least 5.9 points a game. The Rams don't shoot it particularly well from the arc but use their athleticism and size to pound the offensive glass and attack the rim relentlessly in transition and in the halfcourt. They're shooting over 51% from the floor and should be able to score at will against Muscatine. If the Muskies are going to hang around in this one, they'll need to protect the ball (average 15.7 turnovers a game) and get big scoring nights from sophomores [player_tooltip player_id='1381426' first='Luke' last='Wieskamp'] (16.3) and [player_tooltip player_id='1759902' first='Kayvion' last='Hodges'] (12.4). Our pick: Senior   Pleasant Valley (17-5) at Bettendorf (15-6)   Bettendorf swept the season series in two low-scoring slugfests, winning 45-41 on December 9 and 41-35 on January 24. Expect more of the same from these rivals separated by just two miles, as they have a ton of familiarity with each other and will play a lower-possession game than most other games around the state on Friday night. Pleasant Valley comes in hot, having won eight straight games. The Spartans are led by [player_tooltip player_id='1367437' first='Connor' last='Borbeck'] (12.3, 37.8 3P%), a senior wing with good size who can score from all three levels. Five other Spartans average between 7.1 and 9.5 points a game, and as always, they're tough, physical, and disciplined on the defensive end. They've struggled against Bettendorf's defense in both meetings, shooting a combined 23-88 (26.1%) from the floor. Bettendorf junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1171682' first='Caden' last='Wilkins'] (19.9, 10.5 rebounds) will be the best player on the floor here. The top-ranked junior in the state, Wilkins has averaged 17.5 points and 10 rebounds in the two meetings, pretty good numbers when you consider how low-scoring those games have been. A 6-6 wing who can score from anywhere, he has really turned his game up a notch in the last few weeks of the season, putting up some huge scoring nights. [player_tooltip player_id='1738619' first='Taydem' last='Arguello'] (11.6) is an athletic freak on the perimeter who puts constant pressure on opposing teams on both ends of the floor, and the overall athleticism and length of the Bulldogs is too much for PV to overcome here. The 'Dogs have been dominant defensively against PV this year, and that trend continues. Our pick: Bettendorf   Substate 4   Davenport West (13-9) at Kennedy (20-0)   It hasn't really mattered who is put in front of Kennedy this season, the Cougars have steamrolled everyone. Only two of their games have been decided by single digits, and they're winning games by an average of 30.3 points a game. The senior backcourt of [player_tooltip player_id='1167718' first='Colby' last='Dolphin'] (15.8, 44.4 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='956877' first='Kenzie' last='Reed'] (10.6, 7.0 assists) have won a ton of games for Kennedy over the last few years, and they appear to be on a mission to win a state title in dominant fashion this season. [player_tooltip player_id='1171679' first='Micah' last='Schlaak'] (12.3, 7.0 rebounds) has come on extremely strong following the holiday break, and this is a team that can comfortably go nine or ten deep on their bench with good athletes who play outstanding defense. The Cougars force a ton of turnovers and are a terror in transition, and with their varying defensive looks, they can really frustrate opposing teams. Davenport West has a number of offensive weapons who can score in bunches, led by junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1376725' first='Jermilyn' last='Gardner'] (17.2, 4.2 assists) and Landon Winston (14.1, 38.6 3P%), and they could make things interesting for a little while. But the Falcons turn the ball over too much, and against Kennedy's frequent pressure, that is a major issue. Our pick: Kennedy   Burlington (16-6) at North Scott (16-5)   Burlington got hot at this time last year and carried that momentum to a surprising state tournament appearance. Can the Grayhounds do it again this year? In senior wing Merquiche Lewis Jr. (24.2, 9.5 rebounds), they have one of the best pure scorers in the state. Lewis is a long, athletic wing who can score from all three levels and absolutely dominate games on both ends of the floor with his length. [player_tooltip player_id='1738661' first='JJ' last='Martin'] (13.1, 3.1 assists) gives them a steady presence in the backcourt, but the 'Hounds don't shoot it particularly well from the arc (25.9% as a team), and they'll need to knock down some shots if they're going to go into The Pit and come out with a win. North Scott is led by a trio of double-figure scorers in juniors [player_tooltip player_id='1256295' first='Kavon' last='Phillips'] (14.7, 8.0 rebounds), [player_tooltip player_id='1171656' first='Kyler' last='Gerardy'] (12.8, 36.7 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='1476964' first='Brennan' last='Reid'] (11.7, 47.7 3P%). Phillips is a long, bouncy wing who can defend multiple positions and get to the rim, while Gerardy and Reid are both high-level shooters who move well without the ball in their hands. The Lancers shot 37.4% from behind the arc as a team, a major difference-maker in this one. Our pick: North Scott   Substate 5   Waterloo East (13-8) at Valley (16-5)   Waterloo East's move to the Iowa Alliance this year has helped the Trojans put together their best season in years, racking up 13 wins and reaching the substate semifinals. The Trojans have been potent offensively, averaging 63.9 points a game behind the strength of senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1167741' first='Kewone' last='Jones'] (19.6). Jones has been remarkably efficient this season, posting 54-53-79 shooting splits. [player_tooltip player_id='1469837' first='Jameel' last='Montgomery'] (14.9, 8.7 rebounds) is a fantastic athlete who can impact the game on both ends of the floor with his athleticism and length, and [player_tooltip player_id='1240087' first='Jamauryus' last='Bradford-Gates'] (14.4, 4.0 assists) is a quick guard who can get to the rim and put pressure on opposing defenses. A young Valley team has five sophomores in their top six scorers, led by [player_tooltip player_id='1381422' first='Curtis' last='Stinson Jr'] (14.1) and [player_tooltip player_id='1288899' first='Xzavion' last='Robinson'] (11.3), a pair of athletic guards who can get to the rim and initiate offense. Stinson is one of the best 2025s in the state, and Robinson is a dynamic athlete on the hardwood and gridiron. [player_tooltip player_id='1288925' first='Trevian' last='Carson'] (9.9) is the lone senior among the top six scorers, a veteran presence who can defense multiple positions and get others involved. The Tigers have been largely dominant this season, with four of their five losses coming to either Northwest, Waukee, or Kennedy (the other to a very good Centennial team), and the major edge in strength of schedule for Valley will be a factor here. Our pick: Valley   Cedar Rapids Washington (13-9) at Waterloo West (16-5)   Waterloo West won the regular season meeting 68-54 on January 10, getting 23 points from Dayton Bruce (6.9) and winning despite their top two scorers on the year, [player_tooltip player_id='1288869' first='Si'Marion' last='Anderson'] (14.0) and [player_tooltip player_id='1367438' first='Keishaun' last='Pendleton'] (16.0) combining for just 19 points on 7-21 shooting. The Wahawks are an athletic group that doesn't have much traditional size, but they're long and quick, and they use that speed and athleticism to fly all over the floor defensively and attack the rim relentlessly. Since that loss to West, Washington has gone 10-2, with their two losses coming in very competitive games against Kennedy and Cedar Falls, a pair of teams also playing tonight in semifinals. Expectations were high coming into the year for the Warriors, and while they've underperformed a bit, they're finally playing their best basketball at the right time. Senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='956880' first='Traijan' last='Sain'] (15.8) is a long, athletic wing who can score from anywhere, while guard [player_tooltip player_id='1167702' first='Jesse' last='Sellers'] (15.4) and [player_tooltip player_id='1167699' first='Jaden' last='Harris'] (5.9, 3.7 assists) give them a pair of reliable ball-handlers. [player_tooltip player_id='1738645' first='Noah' last='Johnson'] (9.2), a Linn-Mar transfer, has provided additional wing scoring. This should be a fantastic game, but we'll give the slight edge to the home team tonight. Our pick: Waterloo West   Substate 6   Linn-Mar (9-13) at Indianola (19-2)   Linn-Mar sophomore forward [player_tooltip player_id='1381412' first='Davis' last='Kern'] (19.9, 43.5 3P%, 2.0 blocks) is a game-changing talent on both ends of the floor who could be a difficult player for Indianola to defend tonight. A 6-8 forward who can stretch the floor, score around the bucket, and protect the paint as a shot blocker, he has gotten better and better as the year has gone on. The Lions got a boost a month or so ago with the return of senior point guard [player_tooltip player_id='1167731' first='Jackson' last='Severson'] (11.8, 2.7 assists) to the lineup. A tough guard who gets to the rim and limits turnovers, he's the type of veteran presence that this young Lions team needs in the backcourt. [player_tooltip player_id='1484413' first='Payson' last='Nietert'] (8.0, 35.8 3P%) is a big shooter who can get hot and carry this team for stretches as well. That said, Indianola has been a buzzsaw this season, led by 10 seniors. [player_tooltip player_id='956873' first='Drew' last='Kingery'] (15.5) is one of the most talented all-around players in the state. He's a versatile defender, scorer, and playmaker who is looking to lead the Indians to the state tournament in his final season. [player_tooltip player_id='1167716' first='Brayden' last='Drea'] (14.7, 46.9 3P%) is a dynamic lead guard who can score in bunches or get his teammates involved, and Brady Blake (10.5) is another double-figure scorer who can score in bunches. This team goes deep into their bench, plays great defense, and shares the ball really well. Our pick: Indianola   Ankeny (9-14) at Ames (15-7)   Ankeny won the regular season meeting between these teams 64-50, but that was back on December 9, and that was a completely different Ames team that was trying to find its footing after losing so much production from last year's championship team. The Little Cyclones have been playing great basketball since the holiday break, going 12-3 since the hiatus on the strength of a dominant defensive team. They're a quick, athletic group led by junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1476938' first='Jack' last='Wynter'] (14.2, 38.1 3P%), a lefty sharpshooter who had a huge week at the state tournament last year. [player_tooltip player_id='1167706' first='Lucas' last='Lueth'] (11.8, 3.1 blocks) is the focal point of the defense, a long, athletic wing who can defend one through five, and [player_tooltip player_id='1738626' first='Frank' last='Keller'] (9.7, 8.0 rebounds) provides rebounding. Ankeny is led by [player_tooltip player_id='1171660' first='Carson' last='Johnson'] (14.9, 42.3 3P%), a talented shooter and playmaker, and [player_tooltip player_id='1171676' first='Lio' last='Aguirre'] (14.3, 6.5 rebounds), a physical, slashing wing. The Hawks have had an up-and-down season, but as they showed in a win over Waukee, they're capable of beating anyone. Our pick: Ames   Substate 7   Des Moines Lincoln (11-12) at Waukee Northwest (19-2)   Northwest won the regular season meeting between these teams 88-48 back on January 7. The Wolves shot 68% from the floor in that game, finding little resistance from the Railsplitters defense and outrebounded Lincoln 35-12. They're led by Mr. Basketball co-favorite [player_tooltip player_id='956868' first='Pryce' last='Sandfort'] (25.6, 11.1 rebounds, 45.2 3P%), a future Iowa wing. [player_tooltip player_id='956887' first='Cade' last='Kelderman'] (16.7, 6.0 assists, 45.6 3P%) has had a fantastic senior year, and [player_tooltip player_id='1376673' first='Grant' last='Tigges'] (10.1, 46.3 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1751176' first='Andrew' last='Cose'] (4.7, 48.8 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='1240092' first='Henry' last='Manning'] (7.2) thrive on the open looks that Sandfort and Kelderman are able to get them, and this group has been playing much better defensively down the stretch. Lincoln is led by junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1171658' first='Trovary' last='Cavil'] (21.0, 6.3 assists), a talented ball-handler who can get to the rim, as can [player_tooltip player_id='1288903' first='Deng' last='Gai'] (10.4). Expect this rematch to be closer than the 40-point blowout last month, but this should still be a pretty comfortable Northwest win. Our pick: Northwest   Southeast Polk (9-14) at Des Moines Roosevelt (13-9)   These two teams are headed in opposite directions heading into this one, with Southeast Polk coming in on a three-game winning streak, and Roosevelt currently on three-game skid. The Rams are led by a trio of double-figure scorers in [player_tooltip player_id='1167719' first='Riley' last='Edwards'] (15.2), [player_tooltip player_id='1587368' first='Bode' last='Goodman'] (15.2), and [player_tooltip player_id='1367397' first='Lincoln' last='Cantrall'] (10.0, 37.6 3P%). All three are capable shooting threats. While the Rams have good length, they'll need to contend with a Roosevelt team that is athletic and relentless on the offensive glass, an area that could be a issue in this one. The Roughriders are pulling down nearly 13 offensive rebounds a game, led by [player_tooltip player_id='1367403' first='Jaekwon' last='Bradley'] (14.3, 6.6 rebounds), who pulls down nearly four a game himself. [player_tooltip player_id='939063' first='Tevonta' last='Jackson'] (15.4, 4.0 assists), who moved to Des Moines from Illinois before this season, has provided some consistent scoring and playmaking in the backcourt, and [player_tooltip player_id='1167710' first='Sam' last='King'] (15.0, 7.5 rebounds) is an experienced combo guard who can handle, score, and rebound. If Southeast Polk is able to keep the 'Riders off the offensive glass, they can win here, but that has proven to be easier said than done. Our pick: Roosevelt   Substate 8   Urbandale (10-13) at Waukee (20-2)   A quick glance at the records may lead you to think this will be a Waukee blowout, but, as Lee Corso says, "Not so fast, my friend". The Warriors swept the regular season meetings, but those wins came by 12 and 7 points, in a pair of highly-contested games. The Warriors, led by future Iowa State wing [player_tooltip player_id='1733510' first='Omaha' last='Biliew'] (22.9, 10.5 rebounds), have won 10 straight games heading into this one, and they have the type of athleticism, length, defense, and balanced scoring that makes them a clear contender to win the 4A title. [player_tooltip player_id='1167685' first='Vance' last='Peiffer'] (10.8, 3.2 blocks) has been a dominant rim protector, and [player_tooltip player_id='1239875' first='Cooper' last='Randall'] (9.6, 41.2 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1171683' first='Mason' last='Costello'] (9.0, 35.1 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='1288872' first='Cade' last='Littlefield'] (5.5, 60.0 3P%) are all good shooters around Biliew and Peiffer. As a team, Waukee is shooting 40.5% from the arc. Urbandale is led by junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1172912' first='Grant' last='Uecker'] (11.2), a quick guard who can shoot it well off the dribble. The J-Hawks have a lot of athletic, physical players - a number of football players on the roster - and that is part of the reason they've given Waukee some trouble this season. It won't be easy for Waukee, but they are still the far more talented all-around team here and they should hold serve and advance to the substate finals. Our pick: Waukee   Dallas Center-Grimes (13-9) at Council Bluffs Lincoln (15-6)   The defending 3A champions head on the road here to take on a CBAL team that is big and physical. In [player_tooltip player_id='1738615' first='Mathok' last='Mathok'] (14.3, 10.1 rebounds) and [player_tooltip player_id='1381403' first='Creighton' last='Bracker'] (10.1, 9.1 rebounds), the Lynx have a pair of dominant rebounders who can control the painted area on both ends of the floor. The Mustangs will have difficulty keeping them off the glass, which could be a deciding factor here. [player_tooltip player_id='1376689' first='Cole' last='Arnold'] (13.8) transferred from Lewis Central for his junior year and has provided some perimeter scoring punch for the Lynx, and [player_tooltip player_id='1376681' first='Jayden' last='Calabro'] (11.4, 3.6 assists) is a quick guard who puts pressure on opposing defenses with his handles and speed. DCG lost a ton of production off of last year's championship team, but the 'Stangs have been impressive this season behind a slew of relatively inexperienced players. [player_tooltip player_id='1171684' first='Jonathan' last='Howard'] (12.5, 46.1 3P%) is an elite shooter who moves well without the ball in his hands, and junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1376674' first='Calix' last='Cahill'] (11.3, 8.4 rebounds), the only player on the roster with significant experience heading into this year, has been really good in the paint. Five of the Mustangs top six scorers will be back next year, so any experience they're able to gain here is valuable. Our pick: Council Bluffs Lincoln

Friday night will see the Class 4A field get cut in half, as we'll trim it down to the Sweet 16. Below we preview each of the 16 substate semifinal games and make our picks to advance to Tuesday's substate finals.