STATE TOURNAMENT: Thursday Preview

4A Semifinal: #4 Dowling Catholic (21-3) vs. #1 Cedar Falls (23-0), 10:30 am   Analysis: Both of these teams were extremely impressive in their quarterfinal round wins over Dubuque Senior and Urbandale, respectively. Things are about to get much harder in the semifinals. Cedar Falls got 28 points each from [player_tooltip player_id='1765553' first='William' last='Gerdes'] and [player_tooltip player_id='1777914' first='Jaydon' last='Kimbrough'] against Urbandale, but the J-Hawks didn't have anyone near the size of Gerdes in the paint. Dowling Catholic has two players they can throw at him in 6-10 [player_tooltip player_id='2617486' first='Charles' last='Crane'] and 6-8 [player_tooltip player_id='2443978' first='Alfred' last='Kolee']. Gerdes is one of the most talented, dominant offensive big men the state has seen in recent years, and he'll certainly find a way to get his points, but it's going to be tougher in this one. The biggest edge that the Tigers may have in this one is [player_tooltip player_id='1777914' first='Jaydon' last='Kimbrough']. The guard has had a sensational senior season and is one of the most talented shot creators and tough shot makers in the state. Does Dowling have a perimeter defender who can keep pace with him?   On the other end of the floor, offense can be tough to come by at times for the Maroons. Against a stout Cedar Falls defense, they'll need to be patient, get plenty of ball reversals, and knock down any open looks that they can get. [player_tooltip player_id='2731790' first='Noah' last='Martens'] has been really good as a shot creator this season, improving as a ball-handler and facilitator, and he'll need to play at a high level here if the Maroons are going to generate enough offense to push Cedar Falls. This should be tight throughout, but the Tigers have the two best offensive players in this game, and that gives them an edge in the long run. I trust them to be able to create quality looks in the halfcourt more than I do Dowling.   Players to watch Dowling Catholic: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2617486' first='Charles' last='Crane'] (13.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.6 blocks); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731790' first='Noah' last='Martens'] (13.0 points, 4.3 assists); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2443978' first='Alfred' last='Kolee'] (10.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.0 blocks) Cedar Falls: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765553' first='William' last='Gerdes'] (20.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.4 steals, 2.1 blocks, 74.7 FG%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1777914' first='Jaydon' last='Kimbrough'] (19.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.4 steals, 53.2 FG%, 39.4 3P%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765549' first='Leyton' last='Wolf'] (8.8 points, 6.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.4 blocks)   Our pick: Cedar Falls 58, Dowling Catholic 52   4A Semifinal: #6 Johnston (16-8) vs. #2 Waukee (22-2), 12:15 pm   Analysis: These teams met twice in the regular season, a pair of Waukee wins - 67-54 on December 5, and 59-57 on January 13. Johnston delivered the upset of the tournament on Tuesday morning, beating Waukee Northwest with an outstanding gameplan and nearly flawless execution. Can the Dragons slay the other Waukee school in the semifinals? In the two regular season meetings, Waukee held a combined +27 rebounding margin, and that probably isn't going to change much in this one. The Warriors just have much more size than Johnston does with [player_tooltip player_id='1765524' first='Evan' last='Jacobson'], [player_tooltip player_id='2594655' first='Pete' last='Craig'], and [player_tooltip player_id='2823296' first='Landon' last='Hanson']. They're going to win in the paint and on the glass. Look for them to try and establish that size advantage early and often.   For Johnston, they were able to spread Northwest out, pulling their size away from the rim, and then use their stable of quick guards to get downhill and attack the bucket, time after time. I would anticipate a similar game plan here. [player_tooltip player_id='2419846' first='Nicare' last='Cavil'] and [player_tooltip player_id='1765517' first='Tino' last='Daye Jr'] play with poise beyond their years late in the shot clock, so comfortable creating shots in the final eight seconds. They'll look to do the same here, limiting possessions, controlling the pace, and using their fantastic shot creators to get quality looks late. This Johnston team is starting to feel a bit like 2020 Ankeny with their elite guard play.   Players to watch Johnston: 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419846' first='Nicare' last='Cavil'] (15.9 points, 3.4 assists, 2.1 steals); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765517' first='Tino' last='Daye Jr'] (12.4 points, 3.9 assists); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2116043' first='Joshua' last='Jenkins'] (11.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 52.8 FG%) Waukee: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765524' first='Evan' last='Jacobson'] (14.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.1 blocks); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765539' first='Max' last='Roach'] (12.7 points, 4.1 assists, 2.0 steals, 48.4 3P%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978110' first='Jaishon' last='White'] (12.7 points); 2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2594655' first='Pete' last='Craig'] (11.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.0 steals, 1.7 blocks); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2823296' first='Landon' last='Hanson'] (9.8 points, 4.8 rebounds)   Our pick: Johnston 52, Waukee 49   1A Semifinal: #1 St. Edmond (24-2) vs. #4 Notre Dame (25-2), 2:00 pm   Analysis: St. Edmond got a bit of a battle against Woodbine before pulling away in the second half, while Notre Dame jumped out to a big lead against Bellevue and then had to hold on and survive to move into the semifinals. [player_tooltip player_id='1978106' first='Shay' last='Stephens'] was fantastic in the first half against Bellevue, scoring 21 points in the first half and using his shot creation to dominate the game. The Comets threw a face-guard at him in the second half, and the Nikes' role players stepped up in the second half and made enough plays to get them here. I would anticipate St. Edmond to throw a junk defense at Stephens from the tip in this one, knowing that they can't let him get loose. He's going to be the most talented player on the floor, and if he's able to get it going, Notre Dame will be in business. This is one of the game plans that I'm most interested to see unfold - what the Gaels do against Stephens.   On the flip side, St. Edmond star forward [player_tooltip player_id='1907683' first='Hunter' last='Horn'] got dinged up a bit in their quarterfinal win over Woodbine. Is he healthy? With his ability to score inside and out at 6-4, he could be a bit of a matchup problem for Notre Dame here. The X-factor for St. Edmond in this game is going to be [player_tooltip player_id='2887801' first='Jakob' last='Koopman']. The 6-2 forward had a really good quarterfinal game and is the type of physical, athletic forward that he control the glass and give the Gaels an edge in the painted area. I took St. Edmond pre-tournament, and had the Gaels #1 to open the year, so I'll stick with it, but this is a fascinating game that could go either way.   Players to watch St. Edmond: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1907683' first='Hunter' last='Horn'] (26.2 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 57.3 FG%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2517050' first='Carson' last='Bargfrede'] (12.7 points, 4.0 rebounds); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2887801' first='Jakob' last='Koopman'] (9.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.8 steals, 57.5 FG%) Notre Dame: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978106' first='Shay' last='Stephens'] (24.5 points, 9.2 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 3.1 steals, 61.6 FG%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3453714' first='Eli' last='Oleson'] (10.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='3453701' first='Griffin' last='Kies'] (10.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 40.0 3P%)   Our pick: St. Edmond 54, Notre Dame 52   1A Semifinal: #2 MMCRU (26-1) vs. #6 Marquette Catholic (24-2), 3:45 pm   Analysis: MMCRU was the most impressive team in the 1A quarterfinals. A physical, highly athletic team, they completely took apart a really good Boyden-Hull team, dominating the Comets on both ends of the floor. This is another fascinating matchup in 1A, with a Marquette Catholic team that likes to get up-and-down and use their depth and array of scorers to spread the floor and knock down shots. They have a ton of shooters, with five different players making 3s in the quarters, and they're going to need to shoot it well from deep in this one. Easier said than done against the athletic, physical perimeter defenders that MMCRU has. Justin Severson, coming off a 15-rebound performance, will need to hold his own on the glass again against the athletes the Royals have.   I think this game is going to come down to how it is officiated. If MMCRU is allowed to be physical, that's a huge edge. If the game has a tighter whistle, allowing the Defenders guards to get loose and create a bit more, that could play into Marquette's hands. State tournament games are generally allowed to be played a bit more physically, and a little slower, which I think gives MMCRU an edge.   Players to watch MMCRU: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3255100' first='Kamden' last='Bork'] (15.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 3.9 steals, 63.7 FG%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3041731' first='Wyatt' last='Alesch'] (11.9 points, 4.2 assists, 3.7 steals, 57.1 FG%); 2026 Michael Schmillen (10.5 points, 4.7 assists, 2.8 steals, 55.3 FG%); 2027 Josh Peterson (10.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.0 blocks, 69.7 FG%) Marquette Catholic: 2026 Koen Roeder (12.0 points, 3.2 assists, 50.0 FG%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2828832' first='Taegin' last='Smith'] (11.3 points, 43.9 3P%); 2026 Justin Severson (11.2 points, 10.0 rebounds, 63.2 FG%); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2906540' first='Louis' last='Gonner'] (11.2 points, 4.6 assists); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='3344000' first='Canden' last='Weber'] (10.8 points); 2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2523923' first='Tate' last='Kueter'] (10.0 points)   Our pick: MMCRU 54, Marquette Catholic 48   2A Semifinal: #1 Kuemper Catholic (23-3) vs. #4 Treynor (23-3), 5:30 pm   Analysis: Kuemper rolled to a quarterfinal win over Union, while Treynor had to exert a bit more energy in their win over Grundy Center, holding off a furious late rally from the Spartans. On the quick turnaround, that may give Kuemper an edge here. [player_tooltip player_id='1765513' first='Ryan' last='Clair'] was great in the paint for the Knights in the quarters, and he'll have an edge in this matchup as well. The 6-6 big man has size, great hands, and soft touch, and the offense is able to flow through him in the mid-and-high post areas. His presence helps open things up for [player_tooltip player_id='2420798' first='Griffin' last='Glynn'], [player_tooltip player_id='2420805' first='Dylan' last='Schon'], and [player_tooltip player_id='2519974' first='Jack' last='Badding'] on the perimeter, all three of whom are gifted shot creators. I think the toughness of Glynn and Schon, in particular, with their ability to create quality looks off the dribble, gives Kuemper an edge here.   If Treynor is going to hang with Kuemper, they'll need to slow the game down and use their halfcourt execution to get good looks late in the shot clock. [player_tooltip player_id='1978103' first='Alec' last='Lovely'] is one of the best guards in 2A, and he can do so, but the Knights have a number of different options they can throw at him defensively. Kuemper has more scoring options, and more ways to beat you in the halfcourt, and that gives them an edge here.   Players to watch Kuemper Catholic: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765513' first='Ryan' last='Clair'] (16.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.3 blocks, 62.5 FG%); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2420798' first='Griffin' last='Glynn'] (15.1 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 52.1 FG%, 43.3 3P%); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2420805' first='Dylan' last='Schon'] (13.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.3 steals, 59.9 FG%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2519974' first='Jack' last='Badding'] (10.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.9 steals) Treynor: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978103' first='Alec' last='Lovely'] (17.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 2.0 steals); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2886836' first='Ethan' last='Hill'] (11.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.8 steals); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413619' first='Corbin' last='Thien'] (9.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 62.8 FG%)   Our pick: Kuemper Catholic 62, Treynor 55   2A Semifinal: #2 Unity Christian (23-2) vs. #3 Regina Catholic (23-1), 7:15 pm   Analysis: This is a fascinating matchup. Regina used their massive size advantage against Aplington-Parkersburg to end that game early, dominating the painted area on both ends of the floor. Will they be able to do so against Unity Christian? Unity's starting lineup only goes 6-1, 6-2, 6-0, 6-4, 6-4, so while they have more size than A-P did, they're still smaller than Regina. That said, the Knights are more physical than A-P was, so they aren't going to back down from the Regals size. Where Unity has a pretty significant edge in this one is in the backcourt. Guards [player_tooltip player_id='2413578' first='Dylan' last='Bosma'], [player_tooltip player_id='2413600' first='Austin' last='Wieringa'], and [player_tooltip player_id='2407223' first='Keagen' last='Winterfeld'] are playing in their third straight semifinal, and they can all create quality looks off the dribble. They're going to look to make this an up-and-down game and apply pressure to Regina's guards, who have largely been untested this year.   For Regina, look for them to continue to try and play bully ball, using their 6-3 (and strong), 6-5, and 6-9 front court to try and pound the ball into the paint, attack the offensive glass, and get to the free-throw line. This is a team that is heavily reliant on their ability to score in the paint, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Unity throw some junk defense looks at them on occasion, daring them to beat them from the perimeter. Regina averages only 4.5 made 3-pointers per game, so if Unity packs it in, they'll need to prove they can make jumpers.   Players to watch Unity Christian: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413578' first='Dylan' last='Bosma'] (18.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.1 steals, 41.1 3P%); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419800' first='Tyce' last='Van Donge'] (14.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.7 steals, 54.1 FG%); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2407223' first='Keagen' last='Winterfeld'] (13.0 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.1 steals); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413600' first='Austin' last='Wieringa'] (12.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.8 steals, 57.6 FG%) Regina Catholic: 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419768' first='Tate' last='Wallace'] (16.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.4 steals, 66.2 FG%); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419815' first='Will' last='Litton'] (12.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.6 steals, 53.0 FG%); 2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2523886' first='Ben' last='Wade'] (10.5 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.1 blocks, 55.4 FG%)   Our pick: Unity Christian 60, Regina Catholic 55

4A Semifinal: #4 Dowling Catholic (21-3) vs. #1 Cedar Falls (23-0), 10:30 am