Class 3A Substate Semifinal Preview

Class 3A postseason picks record: 29-3   Substate 1   Saydel (14-8) at Carroll (18-5)   There is a significant difference in strength of schedules here, with Carroll playing the 13th most difficult schedule in 3A and Saydel taking on the 62nd toughest (out of 64 3A teams). As long as Carroll is able to prevent Saydel star guard [player_tooltip player_id='2731882' first='Gage' last='Moreno'] (23.2) from going off for 40+ points, they should take care of business here pretty handily. The Tigers have too much athleticism and talent, and senior big man [player_tooltip player_id='3255087' first='Lual' last='Tharjiath'] (9.1, 3.0 blocks) is going to be a huge difference maker here.   The pick: Carroll   Sioux Center (15-8) at MOC-Floyd Valley (18-4)   These teams split during the regular season, with Sioux Center winning 73-66 back on December 9, and MOC-Floyd Valley taking the rematch 62-50 on January 23. The Dutchmen have been playing fantastic basketball since the holiday break, going 14-2 since the hiatus, and they have too much size and physicality in the paint in the form of [player_tooltip player_id='2758688' first='Jacob' last='Mulder'] (13.8, 8.2 rebounds, 58.5 FG%) for Sioux Center to contend with. A veteran team with a number of contributors from last year's state title team, MOC-FV should advance to the substate final here.   The pick: MOC-Floyd Valley   Substate 2   North Polk (13-10) at Clear Lake (20-2)   Clear Lake's two losses this season have come to Dallas Center-Grimes by 5 and St. Edmond by 4, so they're really close to being an undefeated, likely top-ranked team in 3A. The Lions rank 7th in the class in scoring offense (69.4) and 2nd in defense (39.4), and while they're played against a significantly less difficult schedule than North Polk, they have a lot of experienced pieces who have played in plenty of big games over the last few years. [player_tooltip player_id='2419796' first='Jaxson' last='McIntire'] (14.4, 40.5 3P%) leads a potent, deep offensive attack and the Lions should frustrate the Comets on the defensive end with their constant pressure.   The pick: Clear Lake   Gilbert (14-8) at Knoxville (20-3)   This should be one of the best games of the night, with these teams separated by 0.13 points at BC Moore. Knoxville enters hot, having won 11 straight games on the strength of the elite shooting of [player_tooltip player_id='2231637' first='Lincoln' last='Norris'] (23.3, 46.8 3P%). The junior guard is capable of making 10 3-pointers on any given night. Senior [player_tooltip player_id='2731843' first='Drake' last='Larson'] (12.6, 7.7 assists) has been great in the backcourt, posting a 3.74 assist-to-turnover ratio. For Gilbert, sophomore guard Matthew Ochalla (16.2, 39.6 3P%) and senior [player_tooltip player_id='1765542' first='Preston' last='Stensland'] (15.6) have been the headliners. This is another instance of a massive difference in strength of schedule (Gilbert 4th, Knoxville 64th), and that could be a difference-maker here in what should be a great game.   The pick: Gilbert   Substate 3   Decorah (15-6) at Wahlert Catholic (14-8)   These teams played early in the regular season, with Wahlert winning in a blowout, 76-45, before the holiday break. Decorah senior center [player_tooltip player_id='2413531' first='Cael' last='LaFrentz'] (28.2, 15.5 rebounds, 5.0 blocks) is one of the best players in the state, but the Golden Eagles have some size and toughness to push him off his spots in the forms of [player_tooltip player_id='2897197' first='Reid' last='Herrig'] (6.4), [player_tooltip player_id='2881215' first='Alexander' last='Tanny'] (13.1, 6.1 rebounds), and [player_tooltip player_id='2419855' first='Brayden' last='Tanny'] (10.7, 6.6 rebounds). Expect each to get a shot at LaFrentz, as well as perhaps some junk defense looks. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2370429' first='Peter' last='Wedewer'] (14.5, 4.1 assists, 43.3 3P%) has been awesome this season for Wahlert, and the Golden Eagles just have significantly more talent and depth on their roster. Don't expect another 31-point blowout, but Wahlert should win comfortably.   The pick: Wahlert Catholic   Waverly-Shell Rock (13-9) at Xavier (13-8)   This is another rematch from an early season game, won by Xavier, 58-33, on December 6. Waverly-Shell Rock barely survived their quarterfinal game against Vinton-Shellsburg, winning just 42-40, and they'll need to find a way to put some more points on the board against Xavier if they want to go on the road and pull off the upset. Senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2886796' first='Preston' last='Baumhover'] (11.5) and sophomore [player_tooltip player_id='2523910' first='Jayden' last='Stephens'] (7.7) will both need to play at a high level for the Go-Hawks to have a chance here. Xavier senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1978144' first='Zander' last='Murray'] (19.7, 51.8 FG%), forward [player_tooltip player_id='1765554' first='AJ' last='Evans'] (12.5, 1.6 blocks, 8.6 rebounds), and guard [player_tooltip player_id='1361499' first='Lorenzo' last='Pino'] (9.3) are too much here.   The pick: Xavier   Substate 4   Assumption (10-12) at Solon (21-2)   Assumption has had a very up-and-down season. The Knights have good wins over Davenport North, Muscatine, and Bettendorf. They've also lost to Davenport West and Clinton (twice). They have talent in the backcourt with [player_tooltip player_id='2717164' first='Henry' last='Stremlow'] (18.7) and [player_tooltip player_id='1552452' first='Synceare' last='Simons'] (10.9, 3.5 assists), and some toughness in Nolan Dittmer (11.2, 7.3 rebounds), but can they play with some consistency? Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2530471' first='Tate' last='McCollum'] (20.2, 40.7 3P%) has been sensational this season for Solon, and the Spartans are able to surround him with a lot of good, physical athletes who can make Assumption uncomfortable. The Knights certainly won't be intimidated coming to Solon, but with how inconsistent they've played throughout the year it's hard to trust them.   The pick: Solon   Marion (16-7) at Central DeWitt (14-8)   Marion is playing well, winning six straight heading into this game, and the Wolves have a quartet of double-figure scorers in [player_tooltip player_id='2754674' first='Tait' last='Rahe'] (17.0), [player_tooltip player_id='1978109' first='Christian' last='Stacy'] (14.0), [player_tooltip player_id='2754695' first='Jaryn' last='Griffith'] (10.6), and [player_tooltip player_id='2448279' first='Brooks' last='Coates'] (10.0, 2.5 blocks), giving them a number of ways they can beat you. While the MAC is probably a bit down this season, it's still an advantage to play against so many 4A schools for Central DeWitt, and [player_tooltip player_id='1765533' first='Brady' last='Meadows'] (14.4, 5.3 assists, 42.5 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='2731756' first='Hudson' last='Krukow'] (14.3, 7.0 rebounds, 44.9 3P%) aren't going to be intimidated by Marion given the athletes that they've faced throughout the regular season. Meadows' ability to control the game on both ends of the floor will be huge here, and the Sabers win a tight one to advance to the substate final.   The pick: Central DeWitt   Substate 5   Washington (13-10) at Pella (19-4)   Pella is a big favorite here, having gone through the Little Hawkeye Conference and posting a ton of high-level wins. Washington has had a nice season, finishing at least two games above .500 for the first time since 2021-22, but they don't have an answer for [player_tooltip player_id='2120763' first='Jack' last='McGuire'] (17.3, 63.8 FG%) and [player_tooltip player_id='2413561' first='Austin' last='Schulte'] (16.9, 6.7 rebounds) here. The Dutch should cruise.   The pick: Pella   Keokuk (18-4) at Center Point-Urbana (18-5)   This is one of the most fascinating games of the night. CPU probably doesn't really have an answer for Keokuk star center [player_tooltip player_id='1978100' first='Jaxon' last='Clark'] (28.6, 17.5 rebounds, 1.9 blocks), but do the Chiefs have an answer for CPU's combination of backcourt playmakers, led by [player_tooltip player_id='1765520' first='Cooper' last='Grimm'] (14.8, 4.8 assists)? The Stormin' Pointers have much more depth, and more ways to beat you, with four players shooting at least 37.3% from the 3-point line, and they'll be able to spread Keokuk out here. Clark is a force, and he'll have a huge game, no doubt, but CPU has the better team here.   The pick: Center Point-Urbana   Substate 6   Benton (13-9) at ADM (20-2)   Benton has had a very nice season, winning a postseason game for the first time in a while, but their run ends here. ADM is just on an entirely different level than the Bobcats are. Too much [player_tooltip player_id='1978130' first='Hudson' last='Lorensen'] (22.1, 46.4 3P%), too much [player_tooltip player_id='1978146' first='Hudson' last='Shull'] (10.5, 46.3 3P%), too much [player_tooltip player_id='1978115' first='Trey' last='Bryte'] (14.9, 9.2 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 44.2 3P%). ADM cruises.   The pick: ADM   Bondurant-Farrar (6-16) at Nevada (20-3)   You take a look at those records, and you expect this to be a massive blowout. In the words of the incomparable Lee Corse, "Not so fast, my friend". Bondurant-Farrar has played the second most difficult schedule in 3A, having to play the likes of Gilbert, Ballard, ADM, and Carroll twice each during the regular season. Junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='2617495' first='Drake' last='Pfaltzgraff'] (16.1, 11.2 rebounds) is coming off a dominant game against Mount Vernon and is the type of inside-out weapon who could give Nevada some problems. Nevada has the #1 scoring defense in 3A, allowing just 38.6 points per game, but some of that is certainly boosted by a schedule that ranks 63rd in the class. The Cubs are led by the Nelson brothers - senior [player_tooltip player_id='1765535' first='John' last='Nelson'] (16.5, 2.0 blocks) and freshman George Nelson (12.2). Drake Hinson (9.5, 7.9 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 37.3 3P%) will be an X-factor in this game; he'll need to be really good against a Bondurant backcourt that can apply some pressure. We can't go full chalk, right?   The pick: Bondurant-Farrar   Substate 7   Des Moines Christian (15-7) at Ballard (21-1)   This is another pretty significant mismatch. Ballard has been the top team in 3A for a majority of the season, with their constant swarming pressure defense frustrating teams and creating easy offense. Senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1978133' first='Max' last='Town'] (21.7, 51.8 FG%) has had a great final season for DMC, but his high school career should end here. The Bombers play at a different speed than what DMC is used to, and the tandem of [player_tooltip player_id='2419714' first='Evan' last='Abbott'] (19.2, 53.9 FG%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1765518' first='Jude' last='Gibson'] (16.1, 4.7 assists, 51.0 FG%) should be able to get pretty much anything they want offensively.   The pick: Ballard   Winterset (13-10) at Oskaloosa (13-9)   On the other end of the competitiveness spectrum is this game, with the teams separated by 1.29 points at BC Moore. Oskaloosa stumbled a bit down the stretch during the regular season, but the Indians have proven they're capable of beating just about anyone in 3A with a pair of wins over Pella and a nice win over 4A Dallas Center-Grimes. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2757890' first='Tommy' last='North'] (16.5) is a skilled playmaker who can get downhill, but if there is a weakness for Osky, it's shooting the 3-ball, just 29.8% as a team. That could be a problem against a Winterset team that almost exclusively plays a 2-3 zone that they can pack in against the Indians. Winterset has five players who average between 7.0 and 10.0 points per game, so they don't necessarily have a go-to weapon, but if they win this one, it'll be on the defensive end.   The pick: Winterset   Substate 8   Algona (16-7) at Storm Lake (21-2)   Storm Lake star wing [player_tooltip player_id='1765515' first='Jaidyn' last='Coon'] (21.5) started in the Tornadoes' quarterfinal win over Denison-Schleswig, but he didn't need to do much coming off his injury, taking just 5 shots and scoring 4 points as they cruised to a big win. The Creighton signee may not be needed much in this one either, as Storm Lake is considerably stronger than the Bulldogs even with him limited. [player_tooltip player_id='1765508' first='Cameron' last='Boyd'] (20.9), coming off a 29-point outing in the quarterfinals, and the rest of the athletic crew should lead Storm Lake into the substate final.   The pick: Storm Lake   Heelan (12-9) at Sergeant Bluff-Luton (17-6)   These teams split during the regular season, with each winning on their home court. That should, theoretically, give Sergeant Bluff-Luton the edge here, getting the rubber match on their home floor. Since gaining the services of Sioux City East transfer [player_tooltip player_id='2967587' first='Asser' last='Mutombo'] (9.5, 8.0 rebounds) and Iowa football commit [player_tooltip player_id='2731823' first='Kasen' last='Thomas'] (6.2, 62.5 FG%), Heelan has been a much improved team. The addition of those two has given star guard [player_tooltip player_id='1765514' first='Noah' last='Conley'] (16.0) some additional scoring and playmaking. Sergeant Bluff-Luton counters with a pair of coach's kids in [player_tooltip player_id='2772340' first='Kylen' last='Vander Schaaf'] (18.8, 5.1 assists, 44.7 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='2754687' first='Ajay' last='Vander Schaaf'] (11.8), giving the Warriors a pair of dynamic scorers and playmakers on the perimeter. This should be a tight one, with the slight edge to SBL playing at home.   The pick: Sergeant Bluff-Luton

Class 3A postseason picks record: 29-3