STATE TOURNAMENT: Monday Preview

3A Quarterfinal: #1 Ballard (23-1) vs. #8 Gilbert (16-8), 10:30 am   Analysis: These teams met twice in the regular season, a 78-66 Ballard win on January 2, and a 82-46 Ballard blowout on February 3. In that blowout win, the Bombers forced 25 Gilbert turnovers and were able to get out in transition consistently. They have thrived all year long by putting constant pressure on opposing teams, using a variety of different press looks to confuse teams, and their ability to take the ball away has suffocated teams all year long. Gilbert did a better job protecting the ball in the January meeting, giving it away only 16 times. Ballard junior [player_tooltip player_id='2419714' first='Evan' last='Abbott'], senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1765518' first='Jude' last='Gibson'], and junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='2419750' first='Parker' last='Miller'] have been exceptional this season, and the Bombers just come at you in waves, using their athleticism and speed to frustrate teams.   Gilbert is going to need to get big games out of their two standouts - [player_tooltip player_id='1765542' first='Preston' last='Stensland'] and Matthew Ochalla. Both are capable of scoring from anywhere on the floor, but they will need to take much better care of the ball against the Bombers' swarming defense if they want to pull off this upset. This just doesn't seem like a very good matchup for the Tigers.   Players to watch Ballard: 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419714' first='Evan' last='Abbott'] (19.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.9 steals, 54.7 FG%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765518' first='Jude' last='Gibson'] (16.5 points, 4.8 assists, 3.6 steals, 51.9 FG%); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419750' first='Parker' last='Miller'] (12.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.6 steals, 55.9 FG%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3255116' first='Mojoe' last='Nybong'] (7.1 points, 40.7 3P%) Gilbert: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765542' first='Preston' last='Stensland'] (16.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.2 steals, 50.8 FG%); 2028 Matthew Ochalla (15.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.2 blocks, 39.6 3P%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765544' first='William' last='Terrones'] (6.1 points, 5.7 assists)   Our pick: Ballard 71, Gilbert 54   3A Quarterfinal: #4 Pella (21-4) vs. #5 Carroll (20-5), 12:15 pm   Analysis: All five of Carroll's losses this season have come against fellow 3A state tournament teams (ADM, Ballard twice, Gilbert, Storm Lake). The Tigers have a strong group of seniors headlining - [player_tooltip player_id='2413644' first='Jared' last='Mohr'], Trey Tassell, [player_tooltip player_id='2413647' first='Mac' last='Collison'], and [player_tooltip player_id='3255087' first='Lual' last='Tharjiath']. Tharjiath, blocking three shots a game, is a game-changing 6-6 forward who is an elite rim protector, and his presence will make life difficult for a Dutch team that likes to play downhill and get to the rim. If he's able to stay out of foul trouble, that would be massive for the Tigers chances.   Pella is headlined by a pair of big-time scorers in [player_tooltip player_id='2120763' first='Jack' last='McGuire'] and [player_tooltip player_id='2413561' first='Austin' last='Schulte']. Both are capable 3-point shooting threats, but are at their best when they're attacking the rim and putting pressure on opposing teams with their ability to create off the dribble. The Dutch like to apply pressure defensively, throwing different pressing looks at teams, and if they throw some presses at Carroll (not always a guarantee on the bigger court at the Casey's Center), they could create some chaos against a Tigers backcourt that can get a little loose with the ball.   Players to watch Pella: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2120763' first='Jack' last='McGuire'] (17.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.5 blocks, 64.7 FG%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413561' first='Austin' last='Schulte'] (16.8 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.4 steals); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3255121' first='Harrison' last='Mullens'] (8.4 points); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2439145' first='Griffin' last='Simpson'] (8.2 points) Carroll: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413644' first='Jared' last='Mohr'] (15.0 points, 8.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.9 steals); 2026 Trey Tassell (11.5 points); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413647' first='Mac' last='Collison'] (11.5 points, 3.7 assists, 2.2 steals, 40.8 3P%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3255087' first='Lual' last='Tharjiath'] (9.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.0 blocks)   Our pick: Pella 61, Carroll 57   3A Quarterfinal: #2 ADM (22-2) vs. #7 Xavier (15-8), 2:00 pm   Analysis: Xavier isn't your typical 7-seed. The Saints have gone through the always tough, and filled with 4A schools, MVC and have a trio of key returnees from a team that reached the 3A semifinals last season. [player_tooltip player_id='1978144' first='Zander' last='Murray'] is a big-time scoring guard who can fill it up from all three levels. He's having a great senior season in terms of efficiency and he has improved as a playmaker. James Madison commit [player_tooltip player_id='1765554' first='AJ' last='Evans'] is a difference-maker in the paint as a rim protector, and [player_tooltip player_id='1361499' first='Lorenzo' last='Pino'] is a talented guard who can play with or without the ball. This is an experienced group who won't be afraid of anything that ADM is going to throw at them.   ADM has been fantastic all year, with the 4th scoring offense and defense in 3A. The Tigers, like Xavier, are led by a trio of seniors in [player_tooltip player_id='1978130' first='Hudson' last='Lorensen'], [player_tooltip player_id='1978115' first='Trey' last='Bryte'], and [player_tooltip player_id='1978146' first='Hudson' last='Shull']. Lorensen, the program's all-time leading scorer, is a hyper efficient scoring guard who can get it done from anywhere on the floor, but it's Bryte who could be the matchup problem here for Xavier. At 6-5, he has great size for a point guard and can completely control the game with the ball in his hands. He's willing to post up smaller defenders and invert their offense, freeing things up for the rest of their skilled scorers. Does Xavier have the horses to keep up with ADM if the Tigers are able to dictate the pace?   Players to watch ADM: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978130' first='Hudson' last='Lorensen'] (22.4 points, 53.4 FG%, 45.5 3P%, 94.4 FT%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978115' first='Trey' last='Bryte'] (14.7 points, 9.3 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 2.5 steals, 1.0 blocks, 56.5 FG%, 43.3 3P%, 80.7 FT%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978146' first='Hudson' last='Shull'] (10.4 points, 44.0 3P%) Xavier: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978144' first='Zander' last='Murray'] (20.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.9 steals, 52.7 FG%, 37.5 3P%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765554' first='AJ' last='Evans'] (12.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 54.6 FG%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1361499' first='Lorenzo' last='Pino'] (9.4 points, 2.8 assists, 1.5 steals)   Our pick: ADM 64, Xavier 57   3A Quarterfinal: #3 Storm Lake (23-2) vs. #6 Solon (23-2), 3:45 pm   Analysis: The main attraction for spectators on Monday afternoon will come from this game, Storm Lake wing [player_tooltip player_id='1765515' first='Jaidyn' last='Coon']. The Creighton commit is a 6-7 wing who dominates games with his size, length, and athleticism, and he'll certainly provide at least a few highlight reel plays in this one. The Tornadoes love to apply pressure with their length and athleticism, constantly trapping and forcing turnovers, overwhelming teams. Coon is far from along in terms of scoring, however, with [player_tooltip player_id='1765508' first='Cameron' last='Boyd'] emerging as a big-time scoring guard who averages more than 20 points a game and shoots 45% from the 3-point line. The Tornadoes have a ton of different options to throw at Solon star guard [player_tooltip player_id='2530471' first='Tate' last='McCollum'], with a number of skilled defenders armed with massive wingspans.   McCollum has led Solon to the state tournament for the first time since 2016. He's a high-level shooter who was second in the state in made 3-pointers this season (98). He's a skilled ball-handler who shoots it really well off both the dribble and the catch, and he'll most certainly be the focal point of Storm Lake's defensive gameplan. If the Tornadoes are able to limit McCollum, the Spartans will need someone else to step up, and that would likely be junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2906433' first='Maddox' last='Kelley'], a strong, physical guard who can play downhill and attack the rim. Solon is going to need to get hot from the arc in this one if they're going to keep pace, as scoring inside against the length and athleticism of Storm Lake is going to be tough.   Players to watch Storm Lake: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765515' first='Jaidyn' last='Coon'] (21.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.8 steals, 54.1 FG%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765508' first='Cameron' last='Boyd'] (20.6 points, 3.7 assists, 2.2 steals, 44.6 3P%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2833525' first='Garbieno' last='Weno'] (10.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, 61.5 FG%); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2420801' first='Trey' last='Boettcher'] (10.4 points, 40.6 3P%); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2420795' first='Timothy' last='Yanga'] (9.4 points, 51.6 FG%) Solon: 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2530471' first='Tate' last='McCollum'] (19.2 points, 2.4 assists, 1.9 steals, 40.2 3P%); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2906433' first='Maddox' last='Kelley'] (10.6 points, 3.5 assists, 4.0 steals, 53.2 FG%); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2906429' first='Grant' last='Gordon'] (8.4 points, 4.6 rebounds)   Our pick: Storm Lake 68, Solon 58   4A Quarterfinal: #4 Dowling Catholic (20-3) vs. #5 Senior (21-2), 5:30 pm   Analysis: This will likely be the lowest scoring game of the opening day. Dowling allows 48.2 points per game, and Senior is giving up just 44.9. Both teams are exceptional defensively and are both comfortable playing at a slower pace. Senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='2617486' first='Charles' last='Crane'] and junior [player_tooltip player_id='2443978' first='Alfred' last='Kolee'] are both big, athletic forwards who can protect the paint and are switchable defenders for the Maroons. Expect each of them to get a shot at Senior star forward [player_tooltip player_id='1172887' first='Tevin' last='Schultz'], who averages nearly 25 points per game. The Maroons are balanced offensively, without a real star to give the ball to, relying more on good ball movement and sets to get quality looks.   Senior is led by the aforementioned Schultz, one of the best scorers in the state. A 6-7 combo forward who can score inside and out, he's a dominant player who is capable of taking over games in the blink of an eye. He's joined by guards [player_tooltip player_id='1765555' first='Drake' last='Medinger'] and [player_tooltip player_id='1765536' first='Cooper' last='Porter'], who are both fantastic perimeter shooters. The Rams have made 224 3-pointers on the season, the most of any state-qualifying team in the state, regardless of class. Getting accustomed to the odd shooting backdrop at the Casey's Center will be the key for just how successful Senior will be on the offensive end.   Players to watch Dowling Catholic: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2617486' first='Charles' last='Crane'] (13.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.6 blocks); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731790' first='Noah' last='Martens'] (13.0 points, 4.3 assists); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2443978' first='Alfred' last='Kolee'] (10.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.0 blocks) Senior: 2026 Tevin Schulz (24.8 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 64.6 FG%, 40.4 3P%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765555' first='Drake' last='Medinger'] (13.8 points, 2.2 assists, 50.6 FG%, 43.0 3P%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765536' first='Cooper' last='Porter'] (13.0 points, 5.3 assists, 45.1 3P%)   Our pick: Dowling Catholic 52, Senior 48   4A Quarterfinal: #1 Cedar Falls (22-0) vs. #8 Urbandale (14-8), 7:15 pm   Analysis: Cedar Falls has been fantastic all year, rolling to a 22-0 record with only three games decided by single digits. The Tigers have been ridiculously efficient on the offensive end, shooting 58% from the floor as a team, paced by Northern Iowa commit [player_tooltip player_id='1765553' first='William' last='Gerdes'], who is shooting just under 75% himself. He and guard [player_tooltip player_id='1777914' first='Jaydon' last='Kimbrough'], averaging 19.2 points a game, carry a significant chunk of the scoring load, but the Tigers are deep and they share the ball exceptionally well. The X-factor for the Tigers in this matchup, given how big Urbandale is on the wing, will be senior [player_tooltip player_id='1765549' first='Leyton' last='Wolf'], a Swiss Army knife on the defensive end at 6-8 and with great mobility.   Urbandale, having gone through the CIML gauntlet, is as battle-tested as they come. Seven of the J-Hawks eight losses this season have come to fellow 4A qualifiers, and the other came to Roosevelt, who played in a 4A substate final. They'll go as their three senior wings go. [player_tooltip player_id='1978111' first='Jake' last='Pargeon'], [player_tooltip player_id='1978101' first='Quentin' last='Teeter'], and [player_tooltip player_id='1950542' first='Davis' last='Hardersen'] are big, long, and skilled on the wing. Those three have accounted for more than 75% of the team's scoring this season, and if Cedar Falls is able to take one of them out of the game with Wolf, that could really limit how effective Urbandale is on the offensive end.   Players to watch Cedar Falls: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765553' first='William' last='Gerdes'] (20.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.4 steals, 2.1 blocks, 74.7 FG%, 43.2 3P%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1777914' first='Jaydon' last='Kimbrough'] (19.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.4 steals, 53.2 FG%, 39.4 3P%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765549' first='Leyton' last='Wolf'] (8.8 points, 6.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.4 blocks) Urbandale: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978111' first='Jake' last='Pargeon'] (17.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.0 steals); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978101' first='Quentin' last='Teeter'] (16.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.9 steals, 39.1 3P%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1950542' first='Davis' last='Hardersen'] (14.5 points, 5.0 rebounds)   Our pick: Cedar Falls 66, Urbandale 58

3A Quarterfinal: #1 Ballard (23-1) vs. #8 Gilbert (16-8), 10:30 am