Class 3A Substate Final Preview

Substate 1: MOC-Floyd Valley (20-3) vs. Heelan (14-9) [at LeMars]   A pair of big-time scorers meet up in this one in MOC-Floyd Valley star [player_tooltip player_id='1376686' first='Jesse' last='Van Kalsbeek'] (25.3, 10.7 rebounds) and Heelan forward [player_tooltip player_id='1171695' first='Matthew' last='Noll'] (21.4, 10.9 rebounds). Van Kalsbeek is an athletic, powerful guard who loves to play downhill and attack the rim, using his strength to finish through contact. He creates well off the dribble for his teammates and has a solid mid-range game as well. While Van Kalsbeek is the headliner, the Dutchmen have a number of other solid options alongside him in [player_tooltip player_id='2398061' first='Blake' last='Aalbers'] (14.5), [player_tooltip player_id='1523401' first='Ahman' last='Langton'] (9.6, 3.0 assists), [player_tooltip player_id='1951793' first='Owen' last='Vander Pol'] (8.1, 58.5 FG%), and [player_tooltip player_id='1978131' first='Draeden' last='Punt'] (6.9). Aalbers is the team's best shooter, knocking down 62 3-pointers this season, while Langton is a quick playmaking guard and Vander Pol and Punt give them some size, which they will need to contend with Noll, a 6-8 forward who can take over games as a scorer, rebounder, and playmaker. [player_tooltip player_id='2325373' first='Quinn' last='Olson'] (11.7, 3.7 assists) is a solid playmaker in the backcourt, while [player_tooltip player_id='2325363' first='Sean' last='Schaefer'] (7.0) and [player_tooltip player_id='1288898' first='Beau' last='Chamberlain'] (7.0) are experienced players who fill their roles well. The Crusaders are playing good basketball, especially on the defensive end, right now and they have a few more answers for Van Kalsbeek than MOC-FV has for Noll, giving them a slight edge here. The pick: Heelan   Substate 2: Clear Lake (22-1) vs. Ballard (15-8) [at Clarion-Goldfield-Dows]   Clear Lake has been dominant this season, winning games by nearly 21 points a game, and the Lions haven't slowed down in the postseason, posting a 32-point win over Boone in the quarterfinals and a 21-point victory against North Polk in the semifinals. Despite battling injuries to their top two players, they've continued to roll along, a testament to the talent and depth in this program. One of the aforementioned injured players, [player_tooltip player_id='1759906' first='Titan' last='Schmitt'] (10.6, 46.3 3P%), has returned to the lineup, coming off the bench to provide some shooting and playmaking. [player_tooltip player_id='2325311' first='Cael' last='Stephany'] (10.5, 3.5 assists, 38.1 3P%) is another good shooter and playmaker, while [player_tooltip player_id='2325304' first='Dylan' last='Litzel'] (10.0), Gavin Anderson (9.0, 3.2 assists), and [player_tooltip player_id='2389820' first='Trevor' last='Theobald'] (6.7, 5.6 assists) have been quality role players all year. They've also gotten increased production down the stretch from a pair of youngsters - freshman [player_tooltip player_id='2419796' first='Jaxson' last='McIntire'] (5.9) and sophomore [player_tooltip player_id='2413498' first='Max' last='Larson'] (5.7), adding to their depth of talent. Big man [player_tooltip player_id='1381416' first='Thomas' last='Meyer'] (12.4, 7.8 rebounds), their leading scorer and rebounder, is out, but this team still has the goods to make a deep run in Des Moines. Sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='1765518' first='Jude' last='Gibson'] (17.1, 5.2 assists) is a standout guard for Ballard, a quick athlete who plays downhill and puts constant pressure on opposing backcourts on both ends of the floor. [player_tooltip player_id='2397342' first='Jackson' last='Brown'] (14.0, 42.9 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='2398123' first='Mason' last='Gatchel'] (6.3, 40.4 3P%) have emerged as reliable shooters alongside Gibson, and they complement the dribble-penetrating guard well, while [player_tooltip player_id='1256298' first='Nolan' last='Cogdill'] (10.0, 38.9 3P%) has given the Bombers strong minutes as a defender and floor-stretcher. Clear Lake has been the top defensive team in the class this season, allowing just 46.4 points per game, and while Ballard is a step up in competition from many of the teams they've played this year, the depth and athleticism of the Lions gives them an edge here in what should be one of the best games of the night. The pick: Clear Lake   Substate 3: Decorah (21-2) vs. Charles City (15-8) [at Crestwood]   Decorah swept the season series, winning 63-50 on December 8, and 88-57 on January 22. Expect this substate final to land somewhere in the middle of those two outcomes. The Vikings are the most explosive offensive team in the class, averaging 77.9 points a game behind four double figure scorers: [player_tooltip player_id='1256304' first='Ben' last='Bockman'] (19.6, 48.7 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='2413531' first='Cael' last='LaFrentz'] (16.1, 10.8 rebounds, 2.7 blocks), [player_tooltip player_id='1171655' first='Treyton' last='McCain'] (12.1, 7.3 assists), and [player_tooltip player_id='1381408' first='Zach' last='Driscoll'] (10.1, 50.8 3P%). [player_tooltip player_id='1587745' first='Matthew' last='Bockman'] (9.6) also contributed close to double figures, and [player_tooltip player_id='2377280' first='Kaiden' last='Quandahl'] (4.1, 5.7 rebounds) is the glue guy who does a bit of everything for this group. They are capable of scoring in bunches both in transition and in the halfcourt, inside and out, and they move the ball extremely well (22.4 assists per game). Charles City will need to grind this game to a halt, take care of the ball, and hope to get big nights from [player_tooltip player_id='1476943' first='Keenen' last='Wiley'] (16.2, 9.0 rebounds), [player_tooltip player_id='1288892' first='Jack' last='Hanson'] (12.8, 4.3 assists), and Jeb Wandro (10.4, 38.4 3P%) if they want to pull off a huge upset. The pick: Decorah   Substate 4: Marion (18-5) vs. Assumption (15-8) [at Alliant Energy PowerHouse]   When Assumption is playing well, they may just be the best team in 3A, and they're playing really well right now. The Knights are coming off a 24-point beatdown of Mount Vernon to advance to the substate final. A quick, athletic team led by the guard tandem of [player_tooltip player_id='1759900' first='Damyen' last='Jackson'] (15.2) and [player_tooltip player_id='1660062' first='Navon' last='Shabazz'] (14.9) are electric scorers and playmakers off the dribble, and the Knights are able to surround them with talented, athletic role players. [player_tooltip player_id='1759902' first='Kayvion' last='Hodges'] (9.5, 7.0 rebounds) is a great athlete who, at 6-2, has long arms, great lateral movement, and can defend multiple positions. [player_tooltip player_id='1759943' first='Braylon' last='Thomsen'] (9.0, 35.3 3P%) is the team's best shooter, and [player_tooltip player_id='2397362' first='Joey' last='Funderburk'] (7.7) gives them some size in the paint. Marion is coming off a four-overtime marathon win over Maquoketa on Thursday night, and while they will have had nearly four days to rest, how much do the Wolves have left in the tank after that emotionally draining win? [player_tooltip player_id='1402185' first='Austin' last='Goodrich'] (12.3, 39.0 3P%) leads the team in scoring and is their best shooter, while athletic big man Kyler Whitman (11.9, 8.6 rebounds, 1.8 blocks) is a 6-6 forward who could give them an edge in the paint against a smaller Assumption team. At that peak, Assumption is the better team, but consistency has been an issue. If they show up to play, they should win this one relatively comfortably. The pick: Assumption   Substate 5: Williamsburg (15-8) vs. Keokuk (17-6) [at Alliant Energy PowerHouse]   Keokuk is the lone #4 seed to reach the substate finals, and the Chiefs win over Solon was no fluke. Sophomore big man [player_tooltip player_id='1978100' first='Jaxon' last='Clark'] (20.0, 11.5 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, 65.5 FG%) is a difference-maker in the paint on both ends of the floor. A big 6-8/6-9 forward with great footwork and patience, soft touch, and good court vision, he can dominate the game on both ends. [player_tooltip player_id='1476968' first='Diego' last='Garcia'] (13.1, 4.2 assists) is a slashing wing who creates well off the bounce for his teammates, and the tandem of [player_tooltip player_id='1720208' first='Brenton' last='Hoard'] (11.9) and [player_tooltip player_id='2398015' first='Tramell' last='Smith'] (7.2, 41.7 3P%) give them some shooting alongside Clark and Garcia, complementing that duo's skill sets well. Williamsburg avenged a pair of regular-season losses to Clear Creek-Amana to reach the substate finals, and star senior [player_tooltip player_id='1171685' first='Derek' last='Weisskopf'] (21.0, 8.3 rebounds) was outstanding in that win, going off for 37 points on 14-19 shooting (4-6 3P, 5-5 FT), 11 rebounds, and 4 assists. The future Iowa linebacker is a game-changing athlete who can score from all three levels, create off the dribble for his teammates, and control the glass. Keokuk will have a tough time slowing him down, especially if the Raiders are able to get Clark into foul trouble (averages 2.4 fouls per game, so not likely, but Weisskopf has the skill set to do so). [player_tooltip player_id='1751226' first='Kellen' last='Cockrell'] (10.1, 7.8 rebounds) will match up with Clark, a long and athletic 6-7 forward who will be giving up a lot of weight, but he's bouncy and agile. [player_tooltip player_id='2397303' first='Grant' last='Hocker'] (10.5) is the other notable scorer for the Raiders, and he'll need to knock down some shots from 3 in this one to take some of the pressure off of Weisskopf. The size and skill set of Clark could be an issue for the Raiders here, while the athleticism and shot creation of Weisskopf could be an issue for Keokuk. Whichever star plays better gets the win here. The pick: Williamsburg   Substate 6: Waverly-Shell Rock (19-3) vs. Grinnell (16-7) [at Marshalltown]   Waverly-Shell Rock got a scare from Gilbert in the semifinals, eventually winning 80-73, but that Gilbert team was probably a bit underseeded and may have been a better matchup for the Go-Hawks in the substate final, as opposed to the semifinals. The Go-Hawks have been the most dynamic team in the state from the arc this season, burying 43.7% of their 3-point attempts behind the quarter of [player_tooltip player_id='1759905' first='Luke' last='Frazell'] (18.8, 7.3 rebounds, 53.8 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1751095' first='Noah' last='Frazell'] (17.0, 51.7 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1376675' first='Cole' last='Marsh'] (16.4, 44.1 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='1751097' first='Benny' last='Ramker'] (12.7, 47.2 3P%). All four are elite shooters who can do so at a high level both off the dribble and the catch, and they move the ball extremely well, whipping it around the floor and making the defense work. Marsh, a future Iowa tight end, is a game-changing athlete as a rebounder, defender, and three-level scorer, and could be the difference-maker here. Grinnell is second in the class in scoring defense, allowing just 47.1 points a game this season, but this W-SR attack is on another level than any other team they've played this season. The Tigers are led by junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2511568' first='Ryan' last='McIlrath'] (15.2) and senior Cole Blackford (14.2, 4.0 assists), while four others average between 6.5 and 9.8 points per game. While Grinnell has been excellent on the defensive end of the floor, they'll be hard-pressed to slow down W-SR tonight, so they'll probably need to try and outscore the Go-Hawks, which means McIlrath, Blackford, and company will need to be efficient. The pick: Waverly-Shell Rock   Substate 7: Winterset (15-9) vs. Pella (14-9) [at Indianola]   Both teams escaped their semifinal games with six-point wins, Pella over Clarke, and Winterset over Newton. Pella has been the slightly better team offensively this season, averaging 66.6 points a game, while Winterset is the better defensive team, allowing 54.8 a night, but these teams are very, very evenly matched. According to BC Moore's power rankings system, Pella is a 0.14-point favorite here. The Dutch are led by sophomore wing [player_tooltip player_id='2120763' first='Jack' last='McGuire'] (14.3, 7.6 rebounds, 61.0 FG%), [player_tooltip player_id='1171672' first='Luke' last='Hardman'] (11.8, 38.1 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='2325476' first='Cameron' last='Rowe'] (10.7). McGuire is a long, athletic 6-3 wing who can create looks for his teammates off the dribble, and Hardman is the team's best shooter. The Dutch don't shoot it particularly well from deep as a team (32.8 3P%), an area that could be of concern against the quick 2-3 zone that Winterset plays. Winterset is pretty small, which is not generally what you expect from a team that plays a 2-3, but their speed within that zone makes them a bit unique, and they can create some chaos on the defensive end with that quickness. [player_tooltip player_id='2325569' first='Hudson' last='Wilmes'] (15.4, 38.8 3P%) is the team's best shooter, while [player_tooltip player_id='1587404' first='Sam' last='Hensley'] (14.6, 7.8 rebounds, 2.3 blocks) gives them length, floor-stretching, and some rebounding, while [player_tooltip player_id='1945653' first='Hayden' last='Wilmes'] (13.9, 2.7 steals) and [player_tooltip player_id='2397315' first='Hank' last='Wilmes'] (5.0, 5.1 assists, 2.6 steals) give them some playmaking and defense. Can Pella shoot it well enough to take advantage of the zone? Or will Winterset's speed be too much? The pick: Winterset   Substate 8: ADM (20-3) vs. Bondurant-Farrar (14-9) [at Waukee]   ADM swept the season series, winning 61-53 on December 8 and home, and then going to Bondurant and coming away with a 74-63 win on January 19. The Tigers made a combined 19 3-pointers in those two wins, and on the season they're averaging 9 made 3s per game, making them one of the more deadly teams from behind the arc in the class. Four different players average more than a made 3 per game and with their free-flowing offensive attack, they space the floor and put up points in bunches. Sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='1978130' first='Hudson' last='Lorensen'] (16.0, 44.3 3P%) has taken over the team's scoring lead, while senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1222528' first='Adam' last='Bryte'] (15.8, 7.8 rebounds, 38.9 3P%) is another long, knockdown shooter who moves really well without the ball in his hands. [player_tooltip player_id='2325258' first='Rhylan' last='Stine-Smith'] (10.2, 5.6 assists) has been really good in a lead guard role, and [player_tooltip player_id='2325263' first='Grant' last='Rychnovsky'] (10.1, 7.0 rebounds, 56.1 FG%) holds down the painted area. The defending champion Bluejays are led by senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1288861' first='Tanner' last='Berggren'] 921.9, 37.0 3P%), who is enjoying a breakout season as a 6-4 wing scorer with a pure stroke from deep and an excellent mid-range game. [player_tooltip player_id='2397237' first='Cole' last='Miller'] (12.7, 7.5 assists) is a tough lead guard who gets his teammates involved and gets to the rim, and [player_tooltip player_id='2397327' first='Hudson' last='McConnell'] (11.0, 51.8 FG%) has emerged as a reliable tertiary scoring option who can stretch the floor, shoot it from the mid-range, or get to the rim. Berggren will have to have a huge game here for Bondurant-Farrar to pull off the upset, and while it's certainly possible, the overall depth of scoring threats that ADM is able to put on the floor gets them through. The pick: ADM

Substate 1: MOC-Floyd Valley (20-3) vs. Heelan (14-9) [at LeMars]