STATE TOURNAMENT: Tuesday Preview

4A Quarterfinal: #3 Waukee Northwest (20-4) vs. #6 Johnston (15-8), 10:30 am   Analysis: Waukee Northwest swept the season series, winning 62-52 on December 12, and 69-46 on January 20. Johnston is playing better since that January 20 loss, but this is still a really difficult matchup for a Dragons team that lacks much size. Northwest was +23 on the glass in those two meetings and the Wolves shot 48-87 (55.1%) in the two wins. With the size in the backcourt and on the wing that they have, primarily with [player_tooltip player_id='1978099' first='Colin' last='Rice'], and the 6-8 [player_tooltip player_id='1643192' first='Landon' last='Davis'] controlling the paint, the Wolves just have entirely too much size for a Johnston team whose tallest player is 6-5 [player_tooltip player_id='2116043' first='Joshua' last='Jenkins'], a player who spends most of his time on the perimeter.   Johnston has played better since getting [player_tooltip player_id='1765517' first='Tino' last='Daye Jr'] back into the lineup from his injury, giving the Dragons a pair of lead guards who can handle the rock and control the tempo. He and [player_tooltip player_id='2419846' first='Nicare' last='Cavil'] are a dynamic one-two punch, and they'll need to limit possessions and find ways to get the Dragons good looks late in the shot clock if they're going to pull off this upset. This is just not a good matchup for Johnston.   Players to watch Waukee Northwest: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978099' first='Colin' last='Rice'] (21.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.3 steals, 2.3 blocks, 53.6 FG%, 42.3 3P%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1643192' first='Landon' last='Davis'] (14.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 3.4 blocks, 60.3 FG%); 2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2478747' first='Nash' last='Kooken'] (10.2 points, 4.0 assists, 42.5 3P%); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419793' first='Mack' last='Heitland'] (9.7 points); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1756989' first='Isaiah' last='Oliver'] (9.7 points, 5.7 assists, 41.4 3P%) Johnston: 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419846' first='Nicare' last='Cavil'] (15.9 points, 3.4 assists, 2.1 steals); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765517' first='Tino' last='Daye Jr'] (12.4 points, 3.9 assists); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2116043' first='Joshua' last='Jenkins'] (11.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 52.8 FG%)   Our pick: Waukee Northwest 60, Johnston 45   4A Quarterfinal: #2 Waukee (21-2) vs. #7 Prairie (18-5), 12:15 pm   Analysis: Outside of Cedar Falls, Waukee has been the hottest team in 4A coming into this tournament. The Warriors, on the strength of a balanced starting five, have won 16 straight games. Senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1765524' first='Evan' last='Jacobson'], headed to play both football and basketball at Texas A&M, is the team's leading scorer, but the matchup problem in this one for Prairie will be the Warriors' guards, [player_tooltip player_id='1765539' first='Max' last='Roach'] and [player_tooltip player_id='1978110' first='Jaishon' last='White']. Roach is a quick guard who handles it really well, sees the floor, and shoots it at a really high level, while White is a strong guard who puts constant pressure on teams with his ability to attack off the dribble. The Hawks could struggle to keep those two in front of them.   Prairie is the third highest scoring team in the field, averaging 70.6 points per game, but this is a team that loves to shoot the 3, and shooting at the Casey's Center is a whole different animal than shooting in a regular high school gym. If [player_tooltip player_id='2023719' first='Will' last='Wehr'], [player_tooltip player_id='2419791' first='Austin' last='Joens'], and [player_tooltip player_id='2868728' first='Ayden' last='Meier'] are knocking down their 3s, the Hawks can hang around here, but if the shots aren't falling from deep, they'll find it difficult to score inside against the size and athleticism of Jacobson and [player_tooltip player_id='2594655' first='Pete' last='Craig']. The 3-pointer can be the ultimate equalizer, and if the shots are falling, this will be tight late. If they're not, Waukee could cruise.   Players to watch Waukee: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765524' first='Evan' last='Jacobson'] (14.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.3 blocks); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765539' first='Max' last='Roach'] (12.7 points, 4.1 assists, 2.0 steals, 48.4 3P%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978110' first='Jaishon' last='White'] (12.7 points); 2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2594655' first='Pete' last='Craig'] (11.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.0 steals, 1.7 blocks); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2823296' first='Landon' last='Hanson'] (9.8 points, 4.8 rebounds) Prairie: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2023719' first='Will' last='Wehr'] (12.8 points, 3.4 rebounds); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419791' first='Austin' last='Joens'] (11.4 points, 3.0 assists, 40.5 3P%); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419840' first='Cayden' last='Larson'] (11.2 points, 6.4 rebounds); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419754' first='Quantae' last='Alexander'] (10.4 points, 3.7 assists, 57.2 FG%)   Our pick: Waukee 64, Prairie 52   1A Quarterfinal: #1 St. Edmond (23-2) vs. #8 Woodbine (17-8), 2:00 pm   Analysis: On paper, this is the biggest mismatch of the opening round in any class. BC Moore makes St. Edmond a 25-point favorite here, but games aren't played on paper. The question in this game is whether or not Woodbine will have an answer for St. Edmond star forward [player_tooltip player_id='1907683' first='Hunter' last='Horn']. Horn, a 6-4 forward who can score inside and out, is averaging north of 26 points per game. He can bully smaller defenders on the block and take bigger defenders out to the perimeter and either shoot over them or drive right past them. Expect Woodbine star wing [player_tooltip player_id='1977076' first='Landon' last='Blum'] to get the first crack at Horn, but that's a risky proposition. Blum dealt with foul trouble all game in the Tigers' substate final win over Madrid, and if he gets into foul trouble against St. Ed, this one could get out of hand, as I'm not sure Woodbine has enough offense outside of him.   If Blum is able to stay out of foul trouble, they'll have heavily reliant on Blum to create offense for them. One of the state's best athletes in the 2027 class, he's a 6-4/6-5 wing who uses his size and length to shoot over defenders, and his quick first step to get by them and get to the rim. He's capable of dropping 30 on any given night, and he'll need to be fantastic on Tuesday afternoon if the Tigers are going to keep this one tight late and pull off the upset. Look for a concerted effort from the Tigers' senior tandem of Brodyn Pryor and [player_tooltip player_id='2413631' first='Jax' last='Pryor'] on the offensive glass as well, trying to grab extra possessions.   Players to watch St. Edmond: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1907683' first='Hunter' last='Horn'] (26.2 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 57.3 FG%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2517050' first='Carson' last='Bargfrede'] (12.7 points, 4.0 rebounds); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2887801' first='Jakob' last='Koopman'] (9.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.8 steals, 57.5 FG%) Woodbine: 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='1977076' first='Landon' last='Blum'] (20.2 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 3.0 steals); 2026 Brodyn Pryor (11.9 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413631' first='Jax' last='Pryor'] (11.5 points, 7.3 rebounds)   Our pick: St. Edmond 72, Woodbine 52   1A Quarterfinal: #4 Notre Dame (24-2) vs. #5 Bellevue (22-3), 3 :45 pm   Analysis: This is one of the most interesting first round games in any class. Notre Dame has lost twice this season, to 2A Pella Christian and 3A Keokuk, by a combined six points. Both of those schools played in substate finals in their respective classes. The Nikes will have the best player on the floor in [player_tooltip player_id='1978106' first='Shay' last='Stephens'], who is averaging nearly 25 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. At 6-5, he has great size as a lead guard, is a skilled ball-handler, and crafty shotmaker. He'll play college ball at Western Illinois. It's far from a one-man team, however, for the Nikes, with [player_tooltip player_id='3453714' first='Eli' last='Oleson'], [player_tooltip player_id='3453701' first='Griffin' last='Kies'], and [player_tooltip player_id='3343991' first='LJ' last='Harris'] all averaging around 10 points a game as well.   Bellevue's losses have all come at the hands of either bigger (Northeast, Cascade) or strong out-of-state teams (Newman Central Catholic, IL). The Comets rely on their depth, physicality, and athleticism to wear teams down. They don't shoot it well from the 3-point line, just 30.1% as a team, but they're tremendous on the offensive glass, averaging 12 offensive rebounds a game, paced by senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='2530470' first='KeShawn' last='DeShaw']. Look for Bellevue to try and use their physicality and toughness to control the glass against an athletic Nikes team. If Notre Dame can dictate the tempo and make this an up-and-down game, it'll play into their hands. If Bellevue is able to grind it into a halfcourt slugfest, it'll play into their hands. [player_tooltip player_id='1978106' first='Shay' last='Stephens'] is the best player on the floor and gives Notre Dame an edge here, but this should be a tight one.   Players to watch Notre Dame: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978106' first='Shay' last='Stephens'] (24.5 points, 9.2 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 3.1 steals, 61.6 FG%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3453714' first='Eli' last='Oleson'] (10.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='3453701' first='Griffin' last='Kies'] (10.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 40.0 3P%) Bellevue: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2530470' first='KeShawn' last='DeShaw'] (13.2 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.2 steals, 51.7 FG%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413527' first='Spencer' last='Abbott'] (11.7 points); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765510' first='Cameron' last='Casel'] (10.2 points, 4.1 assists, 37.5 3P%)   Our pick: Notre Dame 54, Bellevue 49   1A Quarterfinal: #2 MMCRU (25-1) vs. #7 Boyden-Hull (18-7), 5:30 pm   Analysis: Fresh off a Class A football title, MMCRU makes their state basketball tournament debut tonight, and they've drawn about as difficult a matchup as you can get in their opener. The Royals were outstanding on the defensive side of the ball on the football field, and they're the same on the hardwood, allowing just 39.4 points per game. They average over 17 steals per game, with their bevy of athletic guards constantly putting pressure on opposing ball-handlers. Offensively, [player_tooltip player_id='3255100' first='Kamden' last='Bork'], [player_tooltip player_id='3041731' first='Wyatt' last='Alesch'], and Michael Schmillen are all reliable ball-handlers who have handled pressure well this season, and each is capable of initiating offense. They're athletic and have been a juggernaut this season, but they're running into a Boyden-Hull team that is as battle-tested as you can get.   The Comets are a tradition-rich program, making their 21st state tournament appearance. They've played the toughest schedule in 1A, and will be ready for anything MMCRU has to throw at them. [player_tooltip player_id='1765526' first='Carter' last='Kleinwolterink'], [player_tooltip player_id='2412735' first='Jakob' last='Pottebaum'], and [player_tooltip player_id='2731754' first='Garret' last='Van Es'] are all double-figure scorers who complement each other well. Kleinwolterink is the team's best perimeter scorer and shooting threat, Pottebaum is a tough guard who can get to the rim, and Van Es is a rangy forward who protects the paint and dominates the glass. Van Es could be the difference maker in this one. Look for the Royals to throw and attack the rim early and often in an effort to get him into foul trouble, because if they can get him off the floor, it'll open things up for the Royals. According to BC Moore, this is the tightest game of the opening round, and whichever team wins is probably favored to win their semifinal matchup. Despite the lack of experience, we'll give the nod to the strong, multiple guards of MMCRU in a close, fun game.   Players to watch MMCRU: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3255100' first='Kamden' last='Bork'] (15.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 3.9 steals, 63.7 FG%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3041731' first='Wyatt' last='Alesch'] (11.9 points, 4.2 assists, 3.7 steals, 57.1 FG%); 2026 Michael Schmillen (10.5 points, 4.7 assists, 2.8 steals, 55.3 FG%); 2027 Josh Peterson (10.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.0 blocks, 69.7 FG%) Boyden-Hull: 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765526' first='Carter' last='Kleinwolterink'] (18.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.5 steals); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2412735' first='Jakob' last='Pottebaum'] (14.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 3.1 steals); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731754' first='Garret' last='Van Es'] (12.6 points, 12.6 rebounds, 1.9 blocks)   Our pick: MMCRU 60, Boyden-Hull 57   1A Quarterfinal: #3 Bishop Garrigan (23-2) vs. #6 Marquette Catholic (23-2), 7:15 pm   Analysis: Coming off back-to-back runner-up finishes in 1A, Marquette Catholic is back for a third go at it and hoping to finish the job this time around. Things don't get off to an easy start, however, with the third-ranked Golden Bears standing in their way in the quarterfinals. One of the major advantages that Marquette has had throughout the year is the presence of senior forward Justin Severson, who is averaging a double-double. He has largely been able to control the glass for the Defenders, but going up against [player_tooltip player_id='2731752' first='Amaury' last='Thomas'], one of the state's elite rebounders, will be a tall task. Thomas averages 13 rebounds a game and is a bouncy, athletic forward who can limit Severson's effectiveness around the bucket. The Defenders have six players averaging in double figures, and with [player_tooltip player_id='2828832' first='Taegin' last='Smith'] and [player_tooltip player_id='2523923' first='Tate' last='Kueter'] in particular, they have plenty of shooting to avoid Thomas in the paint.   Garrigan is led by junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='2243086' first='Michael' last='Joyce'], the aforementioned Thomas, and senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1781875' first='Carter' last='Schwab']. Joyce will be the best player on the floor here. He's a long, athletic 6-2/6-3 wing who can score from all three levels, and is the type of lanky, athletic wing that Marquette could struggle to contain. Schwab is a big, physical guard who could also be a matchup problem for the Defenders with his strength and physicality. Marquette Catholic is the highest scoring team in 1A, averaging 75.6 points per game, and they'll look to apply constant on-ball pressure to the Golden Bears, but Garrigan has the ball-handlers to handle it. If they limit live-ball turnovers, they should be able to control, or at least limit Severson's effectiveness, on the glass and win this game.   Players to watch Bishop Garrigan: 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2243086' first='Michael' last='Joyce'] (18.4 points, 3.9 assists); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731752' first='Amaury' last='Thomas'] (15.1 points, 13.0 rebounds, 64.1 FG%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1781875' first='Carter' last='Schwab'] (14.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.9 steals); 2026 Tate Foertsch (10.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists) Marquette Catholic: 2026 Koen Roeder (12.0 points, 3.2 assists, 50.0 FG%); 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2828832' first='Taegin' last='Smith'] (11.3 points, 43.9 3P%); 2026 Justin Severson (11.2 points, 10.0 rebounds, 63.2 FG%); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2906540' first='Louis' last='Gonner'] (11.2 points, 4.6 assists); 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='3344000' first='Canden' last='Weber'] (10.8 points); 2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2523923' first='Tate' last='Kueter'] (10.0 points)   Our pick: Bishop Garrigan 62, Marquette Catholic 55

4A Quarterfinal: #3 Waukee Northwest (20-4) vs. #6 Johnston (15-8), 10:30 am