Class 3A Substate Final Preview

Substate 1: Sioux Center (16-8) at Carroll (19-5)   Sioux Center upset defending champion MOC-Floyd Valley to get here, setting up a matchup against a Carroll team that has dominated their first two playoff games, winning by a combined 60 points. Sioux Center is led by junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2906403' first='Braedon' last='Perez-Hietbrink'] (17.6), a versatile guard who can score from all three levels, and he also leads the Warriors in assists per game. He'll have the ball in his hands a ton and as he goes, they'll go. Senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='3437328' first='Tyler' last='Moeller'] (9.3, 7.7 rebounds) will need to be really good as well for Sioux Center, trying to neutralize the length and athleticism that Carroll has in the paint. [player_tooltip player_id='2413644' first='Jared' last='Mohr'] (14.9, 8.4 rebounds) leads a trio of double-figure scorers for Carroll. He leads the team in scoring, rebounding, and assists, so like Perez-Hietbrink, he'll have a lot of pressure on him in this one. [player_tooltip player_id='2413647' first='Mac' last='Collison'] (11.6, 3.6 assists, 41.4 3P%) gives the Tigers another ball-handler and perimeter shooting threat, and Trey Tassell (11.3) has provided more scoring, getting downhill and to the rim. The X-factor for Carroll, not only in this game, but if they're going to make a run in Des Moines, is senior [player_tooltip player_id='3255087' first='Lual' last='Tharjiath'] (9.8, 7.7 rebounds, 2.9 blocks). A 6-7/6-8 big man with a massive wingspan and great timing as a shot blocker, he makes it really tough for teams to score inside against Carroll.   The pick: Carroll   Substate 2: North Polk (14-10) at Gilbert (15-8)   These teams split their season series, with each winning on their home floor. That would seemingly give Gilbert an edge here. The Tigers are playing really good ball of late, winning four straight, a stretch that includes wins over 19-win Carroll, 15-win Decorah, and 20-win Knoxville. They're led by a pair of explosive scorers on the perimeter, senior [player_tooltip player_id='1765542' first='Preston' last='Stensland'] (15.7, 50.2 FG%) and sophomore Matthew Ochalla (15.5, 39.6 3P%). Stensland, while a capable shooter, is at his best when he's playing downhill and getting to the rim, while Ochalla is a really good catch-and-shoot option who can also attack the bucket. In Gilbert's win over North Polk, Stensland had only 4 points and was 0-6 from the floor, but the Tigers still found a way to pull it out. That has to be encouraging. North Polk is riding high after an upset win over Clear Lake to get to this substate final. The Comets are led by a pair of seniors - [player_tooltip player_id='2887875' first='Jack' last='Spieker'] (12.0) and Jayson Slings (11.4) - while four others average between 5.3 and 7.4 points per game, giving them six quality scoring threats. In the North Polk win during the regular season, the Comets won the 3-point battle by 9 points (6 makes to just 3 from Gilbert). If they can outshoot the Tigers, they'll win.   The pick: Gilbert   Substate 3: Xavier (14-8) at Wahlert Catholic (15-8) [played on Tuesday]   These MVC parochial rivals met back on January 20, a 57-53 Xavier home win. Now they'll travel up to Dubuque for the rematch on Tuesday night (the Wahlert girls at playing at the state tournament on Monday, so the teams agreed to move this game to Tuesday). In the regular season meeting, Xavier won the rebounding battle 32-25, pulling down 10 offensive rebounds in the process, an area that will need to be addressed by Wahlert in this one. That task got a little tougher with the loss of freshman standout [player_tooltip player_id='2881215' first='Alexander' last='Tanny'] to a season-ending injury. He gave the Golden Eagles some real size in the paint, and in the regular season meeting he had 12 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 blocks. Wahlert is led by junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2370429' first='Peter' last='Wedewer'] (14.5, 4.3 assists, 43.6 3P%), a high-level shooter and playmaker, and a tenacious on-ball defender. [player_tooltip player_id='2419855' first='Brayden' last='Tanny'] (10.5, 6.6 rebounds) has been strong all year, as have seniors [player_tooltip player_id='1978134' first='Connor' last='Walsh'] (8.9) and Graham Ahlers (8.7). The X-factor in this game, and the player who has really stepped up in Tanny's absence, is sophomore forward [player_tooltip player_id='2897197' first='Reid' last='Herrig'] (6.9). He's a tough, physical defender who can also score from all three levels. Look for him to be a big part of this game. Xavier is led by senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1978144' first='Zander' last='Murray'] (20.5, 52.7 FG%), who is having his most efficient season. [player_tooltip player_id='1765554' first='AJ' last='Evans'] (12.3, 8.5 rebounds, 54.1 FG%), headed to play at James Madison, has been a steady presence in the paint on both ends of the floor, and [player_tooltip player_id='1361499' first='Lorenzo' last='Pino'] (9.4) is a calming presence in the backcourt. The question for Xavier is with their depth. Do they have enough around their big three to go on the road to one of the toughest places in 3A to play and win this substate final?   The pick: Wahlert Catholic   Substate 4: Central DeWitt (15-8) at Solon (22-2)   Solon, the top seed in the substate, has cruised through their first two postseason games, beating South Tama by 31 and Davenport Assumption, a team that many around the state thought could potentially pull off an upset, by 20. The Spartans have gotten really good play out of [player_tooltip player_id='2906433' first='Maddox' last='Kelley'] (10.5), [player_tooltip player_id='2906429' first='Grant' last='Gordon'] (8.5), and Simon Einwalter (6.7) in the playoffs, something that was needed alongside star guard [player_tooltip player_id='2530471' first='Tate' last='McCollum'] (19.8, 40.4 3P%). Assumption face-guarded McCollum, so the Spartans needed someone to step up and play with some confidence on the offensive end. All three of them did. The Spartans are deep, really athletic, and defensive-oriented, allowing just 46.7 points per game. Central DeWitt needed a last-second bucket to beat Marion in the semifinals, 54-52, to get here. The Sabers are led by a trio of seniors - [player_tooltip player_id='1765533' first='Brady' last='Meadows'] (14.1, 5.4 assists, 41.4 FG%), [player_tooltip player_id='2731756' first='Hudson' last='Krukow'] (14.1, 7.0 rebounds, 46.2 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='2887814' first='Cal' last='Kueter'] (9.9, 59.3 FG%). All three have been really good this season, and Meadows is a player who could potentially give Solon some problems with his speed and vision. That said, with the role players alongside McCollum playing at a higher level, I'm going to flip from the initial substate preview and take Solon here.   The pick: Solon   Substate 5: Keokuk (19-3) at Pella (20-4)   This is a rematch of a game played early in the regular season, a 70-46 Pella win on December 9. In that game, the Dutch essentially let Keokuk star [player_tooltip player_id='1978100' first='Jaxon' last='Clark'] (28.3, 17.7 rebounds, 2.0 blocks) get his, and made the rest of the Chiefs beat them, which proved to be too tall a task. Clark had 31 points and 16 rebounds in that loss, while the rest of the Chiefs combined to score 15 points on 7-29 shooting. So there will be a lot of pressure on Jalen Clark (10.8), Jaxon's younger brother, and [player_tooltip player_id='3255124' first='Chayce' last='Smith'] (10.2) to perform at a significantly higher level to try and keep pace with Pella here. The Dutch have met no resistance in their first two postseason games, beating Fairfield by 40 and Washington by 38. Seniors [player_tooltip player_id='2120763' first='Jack' last='McGuire'] (17.4, 65.0 FG%) and [player_tooltip player_id='2413561' first='Austin' last='Schulte'] (17.1) have been fantastic all year for Pella, and they combined to score 51 in the win over Keokuk. If Keokuk is able to find a way to limit one of them, force this into a halfcourt slog, and pound away with Clark, they can hang around into the fourth quarter and make things interesting. But if they allow Pella to dictate tempo, it could get out of hand.   The pick: Pella   Substate 6: Nevada (21-3) at ADM (21-2)   Nevada has had a great season, winning 21 games and getting to the substate final. Their run likely ends here. [player_tooltip player_id='1765535' first='John' last='Nelson'] (16.9, 7.7 rebounds) and George Nelson (12.1) are going to need to play nearly perfect games for the Cubs to be able to keep pace with an incredibly high-powered ADM offensive attack. The Tigers are 4th in the class in both scoring offense (70.6) and defense (44.2). They're led by a dynamic trio of senior guards - [player_tooltip player_id='1978130' first='Hudson' last='Lorensen'] (22.2, 53.4 FG%, 46.6 3P%, 94.1 FT%), [player_tooltip player_id='1978115' first='Trey' last='Bryte'] (14.7, 9.1 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 57.3 FG%, 43.4 3P%, 80.8 FT%), and [player_tooltip player_id='1978146' first='Hudson' last='Shull'] (10.4, 44.8 3P%, 93.3 FT%). All three are capable of taking over games on the offensive end, and Nevada is going to struggle to matchup with the trio. If Nevada decides to try and go zone against the Tigers, their ball movement and perimeter shooting should take them out of that in short order. ADM has too many weapons, has been too good all year, to fall short here.   The pick: ADM   Substate 7: Oskaloosa (14-9) at Ballard (22-1)   Ballard has been the best team in 3A basketball this season. The Bombers rank 3rd in the class in both scoring offense (73.0) and defense (43.2), with their defense routinely sparking the offense and getting easy buckets in transitions. They play a style that constantly puts pressure on opposing teams, and if you aren't comfortable against the press, good luck to you. [player_tooltip player_id='2419714' first='Evan' last='Abbott'] (19.2, 53.9 FG%, 39.7 3P%) leads the team in scoring, and senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1765518' first='Jude' last='Gibson'] (16.1, 4.7 assists, 3.8 steals, 51.0 FG%, 41.7 3P%) is having by far his most efficient season of his career. [player_tooltip player_id='2419750' first='Parker' last='Miller'] (11.9), [player_tooltip player_id='2731749' first='Easton' last='Ersland'] (8.5), and [player_tooltip player_id='3255116' first='Mojoe' last='Nybong'] (7.1) all buy into their roles alongside Abbott and Gibson well, and the Bombers are extremely fast, athletic, and long. Playing in the Little Hawkeye, Oskaloosa has seen some really good teams throughout the course of the year, but I'm not sure they've seen the level of speed they'll see here. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2757890' first='Tommy' last='North'] (16.5) is the team's leader in scoring and assists, and he'll need to be outstanding here for the Indians to have a shot. If they can keep it close going into the fourth quarter, things could get interesting, as Ballard hasn't really been tested deep into games this year.   The pick: Ballard   Substate 8: Sergeant Bluff-Luton (18-6) vs. Storm Lake (22-2) [at Buena Vista]   Sergeant Bluff-Luton has won nine of their last 10 games heading into this one, playing high-level ball at the right time of year. The Warriors are led by sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='2772340' first='Kylen' last='Vander Schaaf'] (18.5, 5.2 assists, 44.2 3P%) and junior [player_tooltip player_id='2754687' first='Ajay' last='Vander Schaaf'] (12.1, 36.8 3P%), a pair of intelligent guards who can play with or without the ball in their hands, and both are really good perimeter shooters. They'll need to shoot it well, and handle the constant pressure that Storm Lake's bevy of overwhelming long athletes can throw at you, if they're going to upset the Tornadoes. Storm Lake is led by senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1765515' first='Jaidyn' last='Coon'] (21.6, 8.4 rebounds, 55.0 FG%), committed to play his college ball at Creighton. Coon put to doubt any questions about his health status in their semifinal win over Algona, scoring 23 points on 8-11 shooting. [player_tooltip player_id='1765508' first='Cameron' last='Boyd'] (20.8, 44.8 3P%) has been sensational as the second scorer alongside Coon, burying shots from everywhere and really improving as a ball-handler and shot creator. Those two carry a significant chunk of the offensive load, while the Tornadoes' role players - [player_tooltip player_id='2833525' first='Garbieno' last='Weno'] (10.8, 7.7 rebounds), [player_tooltip player_id='2420795' first='Timothy' last='Yanga'] (9.8), [player_tooltip player_id='2420801' first='Trey' last='Boettcher'] (10.3, 39.9 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='2419850' first='David' last='William'] (8.0, 59.0 FG%) - all buy into their roles well, flying around the floor on the defensive end and creating chaos. Storm Lake is incredibly long, athletic, and versatile on the defensive end, and knowing they'd be really good this year, they've gone out and tested themselves.   The pick: Storm Lake

Substate 1: Sioux Center (16-8) at Carroll (19-5)