6A Sub-State Bracket Breakdown — Who Advances, Who Falls?

Sub-state play tips off this evening for 6A, and it should give us our first real look at some of the top teams and biggest names in the class. This is where things start to feel real, and we'll get a better sense of who's built for a state tournament run.   I've decided to combine both the East and West brackets into one article to provide a complete overview of 6A as a whole. I'll break down each matchup and dive into my predictions, along with the teams I believe have the best chance to punch their ticket to state.   <h3 class="wp-block-heading">East Bracket & Matchups</h3>   East Sub-State 1   (1) Shawnee Mission South (22-1) vs. (16) Wyandotte (5-18)   (8) Blue Valley West (15-8) vs. (9) Shawnee Mission North (14-9)   East Sub-State 2   (2) Mill Valley (20-3) vs. (15) Lawrence (8-15)   (7) Olathe East (16-7) vs. (10) Olathe South (14-9)   East Sub-State 3   (3) Olathe North (19-4) vs. (14) Shawnee Mission Northwest (9-14)   (6) Blue Valley (16-7) vs. (11) Olathe Northwest (13-10)   East Sub-State 4   (4) Blue Valley Northwest (19-4) vs. (13) Olathe West (9-13)   (5) Blue Valley North (17-6) vs. (12) Shawnee Mission East (11-12)   <h3 class="wp-block-heading">East Predictions & Champions</h3>   The first thing that jumps out about the East bracket is the sheer number of elite teams at the top, along with the overall balance throughout. There's real depth here, and several teams have a legitimate shot to make a run to state.   At the top, though, it's hard to look past Shawnee Mission South. They've been the state's top team for the entirety of the regular season, and honestly, there just aren't many weaknesses to point to. They have size and length, experience, strong basketball IQ, and quality depth across the board. [player_tooltip player_id='2205710' first='Conor' last='Kerrigan'] and [player_tooltip player_id='1892885' first='Drake' last='DeBaun'] bring the physicality and athleticism up front that you need each night, setting a standard inside. In the backcourt, senior Ben Allen has put together a big season of his own, excelling as both a scorer and facilitator without ever forcing the action. All three complement each other extremely well and lead a very unselfish group that's focused on one thing: winning. That's exactly what they've done all season, and I fully expect them to walk away as sub-state champions.   That said, the depth of 6A is definitely on display in this bracket with teams like Blue Valley West and Shawnee Mission North, both of whom have put together strong, competitive seasons.   I see Blue Valley West as the biggest potential challenge to Shawnee Mission South, though I'm not sure they quite have the overall firepower to match up for a full four quarters. Their best path is likely to control the tempo — slow the game down, be deliberate offensively, and mix in a few different defensive looks to keep the Raiders off balance. If they can do that, they'll give themselves a chance to reach the fourth quarter within striking distance.   The Jaguars will lean on Cade Wysong, Michael Baum, Brady Brungardt, and Max Orr to lead the way and carry much of the load. And don't overlook [player_tooltip player_id='2211345' first='Alex' last='Casares'] of Shawnee Mission North — he's another name in this bracket who could make a real impact, especially when the level of competition rises.   It's always fun to see a rivalry kick off sub-state play, and that's exactly what we'll get with Olathe East and Olathe South meeting in the first round for a chance to move one step closer to a state berth. The Hawks got the better of the Falcons during the regular season, and I expect a similar outcome this time around.   The atmosphere should be outstanding, and I think the game will be competitive from start to finish. That said, Olathe East just has a little more overall talent and depth from top to bottom, especially in the backcourt. Their experience at guard really stands out in games like this. [player_tooltip player_id='2328074' first='Hudson' last='Weikal'], [player_tooltip player_id='2692700' first='Cade' last='Alholm'], and Tye Mwenda should once again be the clear leaders and steadying presence.   On the other side of the bracket, I expect Mill Valley to make quick work of Lawrence and then take care of Olathe East in the championship game in fairly convincing fashion. The Jaguars closed the regular season on a tear, and the entire roster feels like it's peaking at the right time. [player_tooltip player_id='2327573' first='Reece' last='Riedel'] is a legitimate Player of the Year candidate and continues to show why every night. On the perimeter, JaKhai Carter, [player_tooltip player_id='2245759' first='Jack' last='Carpenter'], and Grady Larson have all been outstanding, giving Mill Valley scoring punch and consistency. Inside, Dylan Everhart has anchored the team with really good play on both ends of the floor, impacting games by doing so many of the little things that don't always show up in the box score.   Elsewhere in the bracket, keep an eye on names like Jaxon Chai, Kemper Johnson, Joey Dooley, and Kenyon Doleman — all players capable of stepping up and making a difference.   The third pod is loaded with high-level talent and some of the best individual players in the class. I believe Olathe North is clearly the team to beat in this bracket, but they'll still need to take care of business and play well to move on. Both Olathe Northwest and Blue Valley are more than capable of playing strong basketball and making things interesting if given the opportunity.   Olathe Northwest is led by [player_tooltip player_id='2211347' first='Gavin' last='Popik'], an experienced guard who has delivered several huge scoring performances this season. He's the type of player who can keep his team in any game if he gets going. On the other side, Blue Valley is a team that, when fully healthy, could easily be considered a state title contender. They closed the regular season with [player_tooltip player_id='2866725' first='Brendan' last='Walsh'] and [player_tooltip player_id='2234471' first='Enoch' last='Rodriguez'] leading the way on both ends of the floor. Walsh does a great job running the offense while also being a consistent scoring threat, and Rodriguez has built his reputation on the defensive end. That said, Rodriguez's offensive game has really taken off over the past month or two — he's been shooting it well from the perimeter and playing above the rim with confidence.   Still, I think Olathe North's depth and overall talent are just too much for most teams to handle for a full 40 minutes. [player_tooltip player_id='2958641' first='Sam' last='Simmons Jr']. and [player_tooltip player_id='2209776' first='Cameron' last='Love'] are proven names at this point, widely regarded as two of the top players and athletes in the state. Around them, the Eagles have great size with Teke Deng and William Cooper, along with talented secondary guards like Max Galindo and [player_tooltip player_id='1846558' first='Justin' last='Roland'] who can step up when needed. In the end, it may not be a question of whether Olathe North advances — it might simply come down to how dominant they look by the time sub-state wraps up.   The final bracket on the East side could give us one of the best matchups of the entire round, with Blue Valley Northwest and Blue Valley North potentially squaring off. Both teams have been right in the conversation as top contenders all season, and the Mustangs in particular have really been trending upward lately. Just a few weeks ago, they dominated the Huskies in a 23-point win — a result that definitely turned heads.   As much as I believe Blue Valley North is the better overall team, I don't expect that kind of margin again. If these two meet, I could easily see it coming down to the final quarter — maybe even overtime. Both squads go deep into their benches and have real quality throughout their rotations, which should make for a high-level, competitive game.   For the Huskies, [player_tooltip player_id='1530221' first='Ayden' last='McGibboney'], [player_tooltip player_id='2205725' first='Tommy' last='Chapman'], [player_tooltip player_id='2205712' first='Elijah' last='Bwami'], and Zach Fritz are key names to watch. On the Mustangs' side, [player_tooltip player_id='2815486' first='Will' last='Davis'], [player_tooltip player_id='2628356' first='CJ' last='Duson'], [player_tooltip player_id='2205709' first='Colton' last='Nichols'], and Jackson Reis are the engines behind everything they do offensively. I think Davis has the potential to be the difference-maker on both ends of the floor. His combination of size and skill is tough to match up with, and that could ultimately be what pushes Blue Valley North through to the next round.   Elsewhere in the bracket, keep an eye on Malachi Buckner, Garang Bol, Brooks Dillon, Paxton Ochs, and Quentin Ochs from Olathe West and Shawnee Mission East. All are capable of stepping up and playing well against strong opponents.   <h3 class="wp-block-heading">West Bracket & Matchups</h3>   West Sub-State 1   (1) Maize (18-5) vs. (16) Wichita West (5-16)   (8) Topeka (12-11) vs. (9) Washburn Rural (11-11)   West Sub-State 2   (2) Wichita Heights (17-5) vs. (15) Wichita South (6-14)   (7) Wichita Southeast (11-10) vs. (10) Garden City (11-12)   West Sub-State 3   (3) Derby (17-6) vs. (14) Lawrence Free State (7-16)   (6) Junction City (12-10) vs. (11) Dodge City (11-12)   West Sub-State 4   (4) Manhattan (15-7) vs. (13) Wichita Northwest (9-13)   (5) Wichita East (14-8) vs. (12) Campus (10-12)   <h3 class="wp-block-heading">West Predictions & Champions</h3>   The West side of the bracket feels a little more top-heavy, with the higher seeds looking noticeably stronger than some of the lower ones. Because of that, this side seems relatively straightforward to predict.   Maize earns the top seed, and it's easy to see why. They've put together a strong season and arguably have one of the more complete rosters in the greater Wichita area. [player_tooltip player_id='2208970' first='Brayden' last='Myovela'] is a quick, athletic lead guard with good size and plenty of experience. Expect the ball to be in his hands often — especially in transition, where he's most dangerous.   [player_tooltip player_id='3173394' first='Karson' last='Miles'] has also been a key piece of the Eagles' attack in his first full year as a starter. His length makes a major impact on both ends of the floor. Offensively, he can finish above the rim, and defensively, he's a constant shot-blocking and shot-altering presence. [player_tooltip player_id='2245744' first='Ty' last='Willits'] is another name capable of stepping in and shouldering the scoring load when needed, giving Maize even more balance.   I expect Maize to work through the bracket and ultimately defeat an underrated Washburn Rural squad in the championship. Washburn Rural should get a bit of revenge after a tight loss to Topeka earlier in the year. Their attack revolves around seniors [player_tooltip player_id='2039558' first='Simon' last='Rowley'] and [player_tooltip player_id='2228096' first='John' last='Hoytal'], while young guard [player_tooltip player_id='2820897' first='Brooks' last='Ballard'] has been highly effective as a shooter and secondary scorer throughout the season.   Other names to keep an eye on in this bracket include Bryson McComas, [player_tooltip player_id='2538059' first='Jalen' last='Aldridge'], [player_tooltip player_id='1921715' first='Elisha' last='Guest'], and Jeremiah Matthews.   While I have little doubt that Wichita Heights will take the second bracket and ultimately claim the sub-state championship, the potential rematch between Garden City and Wichita Southeast should be just as competitive as their regular-season finale. That first meeting was tight, and I expect another one-possession type of game. This time, though, I could see Southeast getting the upper hand and earning a shot at Heights in the final.   The Falcons are led by one of the better two-way players in the state in [player_tooltip player_id='2211361' first='Jalihn' last='Timmons']. He competes relentlessly on both ends and plays with an aggressive mindset. Offensively, he's confident getting to his spots and isn't afraid of the moment. His perimeter shooting has improved significantly this season, making him a much more complete and dangerous scoring threat.   Playing off Timmons are three players who have all shown flashes — [player_tooltip player_id='2969778' first='Tyson' last='Phillips'], [player_tooltip player_id='2401810' first='Ah'Jaylyn' last='Walker'], and Jordan Timmons. Each brings a different element to the floor and is capable of breaking out on any given night, especially when defenses key in on Jalihn.   For Southeast, the main contributors should be Jaydin Araujo, Cayden Williams, and Treg Hardeman. They'll need strong performances across the board to flip the result this time around when they face Garden City.   Also keep an eye on Daniel Monarrez, Drew Strecker, Jamison Howard, and [player_tooltip player_id='2899556' first='Jayshon' last='Simmons'], who could all play meaningful roles for Garden City and Wichita South within this bracket.   The third pod in the West bracket is more intriguing than it might look at first glance. Derby has steadily improved throughout the season, but they'll need to continue rounding into form as sub-state play begins. I see the Panthers as the class of this pod, yet both Free State and Junction City have enough talent — and some impressive individual pieces — to make things interesting, even if consistency has been an issue for them at times.   In some ways, those matchups could actually benefit Derby, forcing the Panthers to sharpen up as they work their way through sub-state. The size and length of Cale Clingan should be notable, while young [player_tooltip player_id='2820782' first='Greg' last='Stiger'] is starting to look more and more like someone you want with the ball in his hands as much as possible. He's grown into his frame, and as he has, his offensive game has really taken off. As is usually the case with Derby, they'll also feature a strong collection of role players who understand their jobs, provide depth, and fully buy into doing whatever it takes to win.   I think Derby ultimately defeats Junction City in the final, but if Junction City puts together its best performance, it absolutely has the pieces to make it a game. From both a size and perimeter standpoint, they can match up. [player_tooltip player_id='2209782' first='Lovell' last='Autry'] gives the Bluejays a steady presence at lead guard — arguably one of the better guards in the state — and he's complemented by solid frontcourt size in Brody Boeckman and Jackson Hollie. Khaliel Walker is another perimeter option who could step up in a big way during the postseason.   And don't overlook [player_tooltip player_id='2820767' first='Brendan' last='Barrett'] and Bennett Nagel — both are capable of making an impact within this bracket for Free State.   The final portion of the West bracket features three teams I could realistically see advancing. Let's start with Wichita East and Campus. Both have put together strong seasons, with Campus in particular making a huge jump from a year ago. This matchup might end up being one of the best games on Wednesday night.   Even though Campus will be without two talented guards in [player_tooltip player_id='2815780' first='Kaden' last='Williams'] and [player_tooltip player_id='2829765' first='Ja'Myias' last='Caldwell'], they still have enough firepower to compete. [player_tooltip player_id='3099207' first='Jalen' last='Clark'], [player_tooltip player_id='2395078' first='Javyn' last='Caldwell'], and [player_tooltip player_id='2401742' first='Tamarien' last='Moore'] should carry much of the load for the Colts and give them a chance to stay right there throughout. Clark has been the team's top offensive option for the majority of the year.   Wichita East counters with a balanced group led by [player_tooltip player_id='2205722' first='Luke' last='Henderson'], [player_tooltip player_id='2814772' first='Aiden' last='Butler'], [player_tooltip player_id='2829284' first='Ian' last='Korir'], and [player_tooltip player_id='2205715' first='Jaylen' last='Phillips-Grey']. On paper, both teams have depth and versatility, which should make for a highly competitive game from start to finish. In the end, I think East's ability to create off the dribble and its size around the rim will allow the Aces to take control in the second half and pull out the win.   That would set up a final between Manhattan and Wichita East — another matchup that has the potential to be tightly contested. Still, I give the edge to East in what could be another close one. East's size should be too much for the Indians to try and deal with. Manhattan will lean heavily on Will Carpenter, Vince Doering, Henry Witt, and Sawyer Newton. Carpenter and Doering, in particular, have provided a significant offensive spark in the second half of the season, including some really impressive shot-making performances.

Sub-state play tips off this evening for 6A, and it should give us our first real look at some of the top teams and biggest names in the class. This is where things start to feel real, and we'll get a better sense of who's built for a state tournament run.