4A Bracket Preview: Picking Game-by-Game Ahead of State

<!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Picking who wins each matchup, and the eventual 4A state champion before the games start next week in Des Moines.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><a href="https://prephoops.com/2026/03/1a-bracket-preview-picking-game-by-game-ahead-of-state/">1A Bracket Preview: Picking Game-by-Game Ahead of State</a></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><a href="https://prephoops.com/2026/03/2a-bracket-preview-picking-game-by-game-ahead-of-state/">2A Bracket Preview: Picking Game-by-Game Ahead of State</a></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><a href="https://prephoops.com/2026/03/3a-bracket-preview-picking-game-by-game-ahead-of-state/">3A Bracket Preview: Picking Game-by-Game Ahead of State</a></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:image {"id":3539496,"sizeSlug":"large","linkDestination":"media"} --> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-04-at-10.20.21-AM.png"><img src="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-04-at-10.20.21-AM.png?w=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-3539496" /></a></figure> <!-- /wp:image --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The Quarterfinals:</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Similar to the three other bracket preditctions, we've got just one upset expected in the first round of the 4A state tournament. Heavy favorites, Cedar Falls, Waukee and Waukee Northwest look as though they should cruise to appearances in the semifinals. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Give credit where credit is due, though. Urbandale started the season 0-2 and registered a few double-digit losses in 4A before taking down a once-considered title contender, Ames in the substate final. Seniors [player_tooltip player_id='1978111' first='Jake' last='Pargeon'], [player_tooltip player_id='1978101' first='Quentin' last='Teeter'] and [player_tooltip player_id='1950542' first='Davis' last='Hardersen'] have the J-Hawks rolling, as they're eaching scoring between 14.5 and 17.5 points per game. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Johnston and Prairie both looked dead in the water early on, as the Dragons started the season 1-5 before rattling off eight straight wins to finish the season, and the Prairie Hawks began 0-2, with three of their five losses coming to programs that didn't reach the state tournament. Still, Prairie put together a balanced attack offensively with four players scoring between 10.8 and 12.5 points per game, and Johnston was led by breakout junior, [player_tooltip player_id='2419846' first='Nicare' last='Cavil']'s 15.9 and Tino Daye's 12.4 points per contest. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The real first round battle comes between two programs that are considered title contenders in the state's largest class, fourth-seeded Dowling Catholic and fifth-seeded Dubuque Senior. The Maroons are led by one of the best bigs in the state, Navy commit, [player_tooltip player_id='2617486' first='Charles' last='Crane']. A 6-foot-10 center that averages 13.1 points. 8.2 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game, few centers in the state can match Crane's output and skillset. Behind him are [player_tooltip player_id='2731790' first='Noah' last='Martens'] and [player_tooltip player_id='2443978' first='Alfred' last='Kolee'], as Martens puts up 13 points and a team-leading 4.3 assists per game, and Kolee, a 6-foot-8 forward averages 10.3 points and a team-leadig 8.7 rebounds while shooting an uber-efficient 63.9% from the floor. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Senior, though, is a unique team that the Maroons haven't played this season. With a big trio of seniors in [player_tooltip player_id='1172887' first='Tevin' last='Schultz'], [player_tooltip player_id='1765555' first='Drake' last='Medinger'] and [player_tooltip player_id='1765536' first='Cooper' last='Porter'], the Rams are loaded with top-end talent. Schultz, the second-best scorer in 4A this season at 24.8 points per contest, headlines the group. Shooting 64.6% from the field, 40.4% from three and 78.1% from the free throw line, the Rockhurst (D2) commit is one of the more efficient scorers in the state. Medinger adds 13.8 points per game while shooting 43% from three, and Porter averages 13 points while shooting 45.1% from three and 82.8% from the free throw line. Porter also dishes out 5.3 assists per game with a wildly good 4.84 assist-to-turnover ratio. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Dowling has the size, Dubuque has the efficiency. We'll go with efficiency in round one. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The Semis:</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Things get interesting in the semis, as Senior and Cedar Falls face off once again, following the Tigers' narrow, 54-51 victory over the Rams just over two weeks ago. In that game, Medinger didn't play, and Porter had one of the more difficult outings of his senior campaign, shooting just 3-of-13 from the field. For Cedar Falls, though they escaped Dubuque with a victory, leading scorer Will Gerdes (20.7 points per game on 74.7% shooting from the field) shot just 3-of-5 from the field and 1-of-2 from the free throw line for seven points, while [player_tooltip player_id='1765549' first='Leyton' last='Wolf'] shot 1-of-4 from the field and 2-of-4 from the line for four points. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Both teams had their issues. Hopefully, the two squads will both be at full-strength this go-round and can match up fully healthy.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The difference-maker last time for Cedar Falls was the play of their senior guards, [player_tooltip player_id='1765505' first='Parker' last='Berns'] and [player_tooltip player_id='1777914' first='Jaydon' last='Kimbrough']. Combining for 30 points -- more than half of the scoring production for the Tigers -- the duo could be the difference again in Des Moines. Previously a Winona State (D2), Kimbrough has elevated his game to Mr. Basketball consideration status this season, averaging 19.2 points for CF. Beating the Rams on the road just a few games ago, I'll take the Tigers to escape again on a neutral court in the semis. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Then, cross-town rivals, Waukee and Waukee Northwest face off in the battle of two vs. three seed. In what will undoubtedly be a raucous environment, the Warriors enter the game as one of the hottest teams in the class, winning their last 17 games, including a 64-60 victory at home over Northwest at the beginning of February. Texas A&amp;M football and basketball signee, [player_tooltip player_id='1765524' first='Evan' last='Jacobson'] leads the way at 14.4 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, while [player_tooltip player_id='1765539' first='Max' last='Roach'], Jai White, [player_tooltip player_id='2594655' first='Pete' last='Craig'] and [player_tooltip player_id='2823296' first='Landon' last='Hanson'] each contribute between 9.8 and 12.7 points per game. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The trouble is, they'll be taking on one of the more experienced, talent-laden squads in the state. The Wolves boast two Big Ten signees in [player_tooltip player_id='1978099' first='Colin' last='Rice'] and [player_tooltip player_id='1643192' first='Landon' last='Davis'], supplemented by high-major guard [player_tooltip player_id='2478747' first='Nash' last='Kooken'] and football stars, [player_tooltip player_id='1756989' first='Isaiah' last='Oliver'] and [player_tooltip player_id='2419793' first='Mack' last='Heitland']. Rice and Davis each average near double-doubles, as the Nebraska commit puts up 21.8 points and 9.6 rebounds to the Illinois commit's 14.2 points and 9.9 rebounds per contest.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>I find it hard to believe these two future high-major talents go out before their shot at the title. Give me Waukee Northwest. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The Title: </strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Another rematch in the making, Northwest and Cedar Falls meet once again in the title game, facing off for the second time this season, after the Tigers stole a 74-69 win in the Cedar Rapids Conference Crossover in January. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>A game where Kimbrough went absolutely nuclear, scoring 36 points on 12-of-18 shooting from the field and 6-of-9 shooting from three, it's going to be tough to replicate that performance, and the Wolves will surely have a different plan to try to contain Kimbrough. In the front court, the Tigers will need production from their two bigs, Gerdes and Wolf if they're going to replicate a win against the Wolves, as Davis and Rice can only pull so much of both the offensive and defensive weight for Northwest. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>If one of Oliver, Heitland or Kooken can get hot, the Wolves will have the edge. If Gerdes, Berns or Wolf can carry some of the load for the Tigers, they may ride their undefeated regular season to a state title. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>I'll take the Big Ten signees, as the Wolves have been battle-tested, taking losses they shouldn't have but battling right back and getting to the title game. Rice and Davis won't be denied, and Northwest gets their first state basketball title in school history. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph -->