Class 3A Substate Semifinal Preview

Thursday night will see 16 games played around the state, all Class 3A substate semifinals. There are a number of outstanding games around the state, and we’ve previewed and picked a winner for each game below. Get out and enjoy some excellent hoops on Thursday night!

Class 3A postseason picks record: 29-3

Substate 1

ADM (11-11) at Webster City (17-3)

Both teams played tight games in the quarterfinals, with ADM outlasting Denison-Schleswig 42-37, and Webster City sneaking by Gilbert, 63-60. In that win over Gilbert, Webster City got beat up on the glass a bit, an area that will need to be focused on against ADM and Vince Benetti Vince Benetti 6'4" | PF ADM | 2023 State IA (10,5 9.7 rebounds). Benetti has been dominant on the offensive glass in particular, pulling down 3.5 offensive rebounds a game, and giving ADM extra chances is a dangerous proposition. Adam Bryte Adam Bryte 6'2" | SG Adel-DeSoto-Minburn | 2024 State IA (14.6, 46.7 3P%) is an elite shooter, and they often say that the best looks from 3 come off of offensive rebounds, when the defense is scrambling. Webster City’s big three of Jaime Grossoehme Jaime Grossoehme 6'1" | SG Webster City | 2023 State IA (16.9, 37.8 3P%), Briar Klaver (14.1, 8.4 rebounds), and Ty McKinney Ty McKinney 6'0" | PG Webster City | 2023 State IA (13.2) stepped up in the second half of their win over Gilbert, and they’ll need to play at a high level if they want to stave off the upset here. ADM’s journey through the Raccoon River Conference has prepared them well for postseason play, and we like the Tigers to pull off the upset here and advance to the substate championship.
Our pick: ADM

Carroll (12-9) at Heelan (16-6)

Heelan really struggled in their quarterfinal win over LeMars, beating the Bulldogs by just two in overtime, 49-47. Meanwhile, Carroll blasted a Sergeant Bluff-Luton team that some had pegged as a candidate to come out of this substate, 65-40, in an impressive all-around effort from the Tigers. Carroll is undersized, but they’re athletic and physical, and they may be able to push around a Heelan team that hasn’t been playing very good basketball the last few weeks. Evan Hammer Evan Hammer 6'4" | PF Carroll | 2024 State IA (13.8, 8.4 rebounds) leads the Tigers in both scoring and rebounding and is the focal point of a solid defensive unit as well. This year’s iteration of the Tigers doesn’t shoot it as well from 3 as they have the last few years, but they’ll play tough defense, rebound, and get second chances. Heelan is led by junior wing Matthew Noll Matthew Noll 6'7" | PF Bishop Heelan | 2024 State IA (17.7, 8.3 rebounds), an athletic three-level scorer who has good size at 6-7. Carter Kuehl Carter Kuehl 5'11" | PG Bishop Heelan | 2023 State IA (14.0, 40.3 3P%) has had a really strong senior season, and Sam Skinner Sam Skinner 5'9" | SG Heelan | 2023 State IA (8.5) gives them some additional shooting. The Crusaders will need to bring a much more concentrated effort to this semifinal, or they’ll risk going home early. We picked Heelan to come out of this substate, and we’ll stick with it, but Monday’s game didn’t inspire much confidence.
Our pick: Heelan

Substate 2

Sioux Center (15-7) at MOC-Floyd Valley (20-2)

MOC-Floyd Valley swept the season series, winning 69-63 on January 5 and 54-40 on January 27. The Dutchmen are the second highest scoring team in the class, but it has been the defense that was the difference maker in those two meetings, forcing 33 turnovers in the pair of wins. Kylar Fritz Kylar Fritz 6'0" | SG Sioux Center | 2023 State IA (18.3) is the lone double-figure scorer for Sioux Center, a solid guard who can get to the bucket and create plays for others. Cael Van Beek Cael Van Beek 6'4" | SF Sioux Center | 2024 State IA (8.9) is an athletic wing who can defend multiple positions, and Tyler Roseberry (8.4, 37.3 3P%) has been their most consistent shooting threat. The Warriors turn it over 13.5 times a game, but against MOC, that number has gone up to 16.5, an area they’ll need to clean up if they want to pull off the upset. The Dutchmen are led by an elite trio of scoring threats in Jesse Van Kalsbeek Jesse Van Kalsbeek 6'0" | SG MOC-Floyd Valley | 2024 State IA (19.6, 58.5 FG%), Ayden Klein Ayden Klein 5'11" | SG MOC-Floyd Valley | 2023 State IA (16.5, 50.2 FG%), and Luke Korver Luke Korver 6'1" | SG MOC-Floyd Valley | 2023 State IA (16.3, 49.0 3P%). A dynamic offensive team that is posting 53-44-76 shooting splits as a team, they’re capable of getting red hot and dropping 25 points in a quarter and blowing a game open in a hurry. If they’re defending at the level they’ve defended in the first two meetings, they should win comfortably.
Our pick: MOC-Floyd Valley

Algona (15-7) at Humboldt (18-4)

Humboldt swept the season series, blowing Algona out on December 13, 83-63, then sneaking past them on January 24, 89-85. After a bit of a slow start to the year, Algona is playing really good ball down the stretch, winning six straight heading into this one. The Bulldogs, like Humboldt, are capable of scoring in bunches behind sophomore wing Ben Helmers Ben Helmers 6'4" | PG Algona | 2025 State IA (18.3), a creative three-level scorer who can create shots for himself and others at a high level. Simon Feucht Simon Feucht 6'6" | PF Algona | 2023 State IA (10.9, 40.6 3P%) is a stretch-4 who can space the floor at 6-6, and Alex Manske Alex Manske 6'3" | SG Algona | 2025 State IA (12.0, 9.6 rebounds) has been an animal on the glass. Humboldt will need to make a concerted effort against him. No team in 3A fires up more 3-pointers than Humboldt, hoisting up 32.5 3s a game. The ‘Cats have a number of dangerous threats from deep in Will Orness Will Orness 6'1" | SG Humboldt | 2023 State IA (17.0, 36.2 3P%), Joshua Thurm Joshua Thurm 6'1" | SG Humboldt | 2023 State IA (15.4, 45.2 3P%), Elliot Carlson (14.3, 34.2 3P%), Evan Hatcher (13.7, 45.7 3P%), and Corey Dettmann (8.2, 38.3 3P%), but with that style of play, there can be a lot of variability. It’s unlikely that all of their options would have off shooting nights, and playing at home, we think Humboldt keeps it rolling, but this Algona team is dangerous and can’t be taken lightly.
Our pick: Humboldt

Substate 3

Ballard (10-12) at Clear Lake (21-1)

Other than Bondurant-Farrar, no team in 3A has been as dominant this year as Clear Lake, winning games by an average of 25.3 points a game and controlling games on both ends of the floor with their athleticism, quickness, and talent. Travaughn Luyobya Travaughn Luyobya 5'10" | PG Clear Lake | 2023 State IA (18.3, 9.6 assists) has been one of the best guards in the state this year. He has always been a really good passer, but has taken his scoring up a notch this year, using his quick first step to get to the bucket routinely. Thomas Meyer Thomas Meyer 6'4" | SF Clear Lake | 2025 State IA (14.7), a future Division I football player, is an athletic, physical forward who controls the painted area on both ends, and the Lions are able to put a trio of good shooters alongside the slashing Luyobya and low-post presence Meyer. Ballard has been led by a one-two punch in the backcourt of senior shooter Mason Gorsh Mason Gorsh 6'2" | SG Ballard | 2023 State IA (16.5, 39.5 3P%) and freshman slasher Jude Gibson Jude Gibson 6'0" | PG Ballard | 2026 State IA (15.0, 4.4 assists). Gorsh and Miles Mudd Miles Mudd 6'2" | SG Ballard | 2025 State IA (7.0, 37.5 3P%) will need to knock down some shots if Ballard is going to stick around against what has been a juggernaut this year.
Our pick: Clear Lake

Boone (7-14) at North Polk (17-5)

Boone comes into this one riding high after an upset of Winterset in the quarterfinals behind 16 points each from Nathaniel Winter Nathaniel Winter 6'4" | PG Boone | 2023 State IA (19.6), Wes Van Pelt (7.2), and Jude Baumgardner (5.1), overcoming 21 turnovers to outlast the Huskies. North Polk won both regular season meetings comfortably, 66-45 (January 10) and 50-31 (February 10), and the Toreadors win over Winterset should ensure that the Comets don’t come into this one overlooking Boone. North Polk doesn’t have a dominant, go-to scorer, with Reggie Postel Reggie Postel 6'1" | SG North Polk | 2024 State IA leading the charge, averaging 12.3 points a game. But this team is absolutely fantastic on the defensive end, allowing just 50.3 points a game, using their athleticism, speed, and depth to suffocate teams on that end. North Polk should win pretty comfortably again here.
Our pick: North Polk

Substate 4

Decorah (14-7) at Marion (17-5)

Two of the best scorers in 3A meet up in this one in Decorah wing Ben Bockman Ben Bockman 6'4" | SF Decorah | 2024 State IA (23.0, 37.3 3P%) and Marion guard Brayson Laube Brayson Laube 6'2" | PG Marion | 2023 State IA (22.0, 40.6 3P%). Bockman, a 6-4 wing, has been excellent this year for the Vikings as a three-level scorer, using his size and quick release to shoot over defenders, while Laube is a quick-twitch athlete with elite handles and shot creating skills. Expect to see a few different Marion defenders get shots at Bockman. Alex Mota Alex Mota 6'1" | SG Marion | 2023 State IA (10.2) has the athleticism to make things interesting against him, as does Calen Claypool (10.0), who offers a bit more size. They could throw Myles Davis Myles Davis 6'1" | SG Marion | 2024 State IA (6.1), another solid athlete with some strength at him, or the Wolves could go box-and-one and dare the other Vikings to beat them. All that to say, Marion has the better roster around their star player and the Wolves should advance to the substate final here.
Our pick: Marion

Mount Vernon (15-7) at Charles City (16-5)

This could be one of the tightest games on Thursday night. Mount Vernon has battled injuries throughout the year, but the Mustangs are pretty much at full strength now and have played good basketball in the last month, notching quality wins over Marion, Xavier, and Waverly-Shell Rock. Jackson Kutcher Jackson Kutcher 6'0" | SG Mount Vernon | 2024 State IA (17.0, 38.9 3P%) is one of the best shooters in the class and he has really improved as a playmaker this season, leading the Mustangs in assists as well. Joe Rhomberg Joe Rhomberg 6'1" | SF Mount Vernon | 2024 State IA (10.2, 7.9 rebounds) is a strong athlete in the paint, and Brady Erickson (11.4, 53.0 FG%) is an efficient secondary scoring option. The Mustangs will have their hands full with Charles City star Chase Low Chase Low 6'3" | PF Charles City | 2023 State IA (15.7), a hyper athletic wing who can score from all three levels. Low has really improved his jumper over the last 12 months, turning himself into a dangerous all-around offensive weapon. Kam Mestas (15.1) and Keenan Wiley (11.5) have provided additional scoring, with a majority of their damage coming inside the arc. The Comets have some really good athletes, but Mount Vernon has been doing some big game hunting of late and we expect that to continue here. This one should be a lot of fun.
Our pick: Mount Vernon

Substate 5

Western Dubuque (10-12) at Xavier (16-6)

Xavier won the regular season meeting between these teams last week, 67-55, behind 24 points from Aidan Yamilkoski Aidan Yamilkoski 6'4" | SG Xavier | 2023 State IA (18.4). Yamilkoski and Joseph Bean Joseph Bean 6'3" | PG Kennedy | 2024 State IA (14.5) pair up to give the Saints one of the best one-two punches in the state, a pair of versatile scorers who can take over games as either scorers or playmakers. Josef Lemker Josef Lemker 6'2" | SG Xavier | 2023 State IA (11.7, 44.1 3P%) has been excellent this season as a tertiary scoring threat and knockdown shooter, and Tyler Netolicky Tyler Netolicky 6'8" | C Xavier | 2024 State IA (8.4) has provided some game-changing size in the frontcourt. Western Dubuque looked really good in their quarterfinal win over Center Point-Urbana, going on the road and picking up a 77-53 win. Daviyon Gaston Daviyon Gaston 6'1" | SG Western Dubuque | 2023 State IA (16.0) and Kanyon Bryte Kanyon Bryte 6'7" | C Western Dubuque | 2024 State IA (13.2, 8.0 rebounds) are the headliners for the Bobcats, who will need to knock down some jumpers if they’re going to go on the road and pull off the upset here.
Our pick: Xavier

Wahlert Catholic (12-10) at Assumption (13-9)

These perennial parochial powers have met three times in the last 14 or so months, with Assumption winning the last two meetings, including a season-opening win this year over the Golden Eagles. Wahlert turned it over 20 times in that loss (Assumption 19). Wahlert is led by senior wing Nolan Berendes Nolan Berendes 6'4" | SF Wahlert Catholic | 2023 State IA (13.3) and forward Duke Faley Duke Faley 6'5" | C Wahlert Catholic | 2023 State IA (12.7), a pair of experienced, athletic players who are looking to break a state tournament drought for the Golden Eagles. Rico Byrd Rico Byrd 6'1" | SG Assumption | 2023 State IA (13.8), a role player on last year’s Knights state-qualifying team, has led the team in scoring this year, providing a ton of athleticism and quickness on the perimeter. Damyen Jackson Damyen Jackson 6'0" | PG Assumption | 2025 State IA (12.5, 3.6 assists) is the team’s top ball-handler, a sophomore with a good frame who has matured as the season has progressed. Both teams have struggled at times to score this season. A deep, athletic team that has been pretty inconsistent this year, Wahlert is the better defensive team here and that should play a significant role in deciding the winner.
Our pick: Wahlert Catholic

Substate 6

Fairfield (12-9) at Newton (15-6)

Fairfield went on the road and pulled off a minor upset against league rival Washington on Monday night behind 22 points and 8 rebounds from standout big man Max Weaton Max Weaton 6'6" | PF Fairfield | 2023 State IA (20.4, 13.7 rebounds). The Trojans shot 57.1% in that win, but will likely find things a bit more difficult against a Newton team that has been outstanding defensively this season. In Cole Plowman Cole Plowman 6'4" | PF Newton | 2023 State IA (14.6, 2.9 blocks), Newton has the type of big man who can limit Weaton’s effectiveness as a low-post scorer and rebounder, and if the Cardinals are able to limit Weaton, Fairfield becomes much easier to defend. The Trojans will need JJ Lane JJ Lane 5'9" | PG Fairfield | 2023 State IA (17.7, 35.7 3P%) and Tate Allen Tate Allen 5'11" | SG Fairfield | 2023 State IA (9.5, 33.6 3P%) to knock down some shots against a tough perimeter defense if Fairfield is going to keep this one close late. Expect the senior backcourt of Newton – Brody Bauer Brody Bauer 6'2" | SG Newton | 2023 State IA (12.8, 36.4 3P%), Jake Ingle Jake Ingle 5'7" | PG Newton | 2023 State IA (10.3, 37.8 3P%), and Tate Vanderlaan (6.2, 34.5 3P%) – to control this one on both ends of the floor in their final home game and lead Newton to the substate championship game.
Our pick: Newton

Solon (17-5) at Mount Pleasant (18-5)

Both teams got a bit more of a challenge in their quarterfinal games than they probably would’ve liked, with Solon beating Keokuk 63-54, and Mount Pleasant outlasting Fort Madison 40-38. Solon has been playing really good basketball down the stretch, winning eight straight heading into this one. Jake Benzing Jake Benzing 6'2" | SG Solon | 2024 State IA (18.0), a 6-5 junior who is having a remarkably efficient scoring season (53-47-83 splits), and he’ll be a really difficult player for Mount Pleasant to contain. He moves incredibly well without the ball in his hands and is a good playmaker out of the high post if the Panthers decide to try and go zone against the Spartans, who are shooting 38.5% from the arc as a team. Benzing is the headliner, but the Spartans are deep, athletic, tough defensively, and have a number of options behind Benzing who can step up on any given night. Mount Pleasant is led by a pair of talented scoring guards in Payton Hagans Payton Hagans 6'0" | SG Mount Pleasant | 2024 State IA (20.7) and Aaiden Ashton (14.3), but the Panthers aren’t very big and could struggle with the length, athleticism, and physicality of Solon’s variety of defensive looks.
Our pick: Solon

Substate 7

Pella (13-9) at Waverly-Shell Rock (16-5)

This is a really interesting game between a pair of 3A programs that have enjoyed a ton of success over the last few decades. Pella has struggled at times to score this year, but the Dutch are extremely athletic, play good defense, and are playing their best ball of the season heading into this one. They absolutely smothered Knoxville, 88-35, in the quarterfinals and have the athleticism to give the Go-Hawks’ high-powered offensive attack some trouble here. Cole Marsh Cole Marsh 6'6" | SG Waverly-Shell Rock | 2024 State IA (14.7) leads a quartet of double-figure scorers, and the top five scorers for the Go-Hawks are all good 3-point shooting threats. As a team, they’re shooting 40.3% from behind the arc and averaging 70.5 points a game. If they can protect the ball against the Dutch pressure and athleticism, they have the weapons to score against anyone. While Pella is playing well and has a good defensive team, their offensive struggles rear their ugly head here and Waverly-Shell Rock advances to the substate final.
Our pick: Waverly-Shell Rock

Hoover (13-9) at Williamsburg (18-4)

This may be the game I’m most intrigued by on Thursday night. Hoover was our #1 ranked team in 3A, and while they may have underachieved a bit this season, keep in mind that it was against a 4A schedule. Chase Henderson Chase Henderson 6'0" | PG Hoover | 2023 State IA (21.3, 5.0 assists), a senior point guard headed to Montana, is the headliner for the Huskies. A cat-quick guard who can get to his spots seemingly whenever he wants, he’s a dynamic playmaker and scorer who will be a difficult matchup for Williamsburg here. Elijah Vos Elijah Vos 6'4" | SF Hoover | 2023 State IA (13.9, 8.5 rebounds) is his running mate, a 6-5 scorer who can take smaller defenders inside, and bigger defenders off the dribble. Williamsburg has been one of the most consistent teams in the state over the last few years, riding junior wing Derek Weisskopf Derek Weisskopf 6'3" | SG Williamsburg | 2024 State IA (19.4, 8.4 rebounds), a future Iowa football player, to immense success. The Raiders are deep, physical, and have a more balanced scoring attack than Hoover does. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see the Raiders win this one, especially playing at home in what should be a raucous atmosphere, but I picked Hoover in the preseason, I picked Hoover in the substate previews, and I’m going to stick with it here. When they’re playing at their best, I still think this is the team to beat in 3A. The question is will they bring their best?
Our pick: Hoover

Substate 8

Clarke (16-6) at Bondurant-Farrar (21-0)

Bondurant-Farrar looked every bit the part of the #1 team in the state in their quarterfinal win over Carlisle, doing exactly what we wanted to see from them – an early running clock. The Bluejays coasted to a 90-44 win, and that was with just 6 points from leading scorer Colby Collison Colby Collison 6'4" | SF Bondurant-Farrar | 2023 State IA (19.7). They got 27 points from Reed Pfaltzgraff Reed Pfaltzgraff 6'4" Bondurant Farrar | 2024 IA (11.4) and 22 from Jaxson Fried Jaxson Fried 6'6" | SF Bondurant- Farrar | 2023 State IA (16.8) in that win, showing that it’s not just Collison and Fried who can score in bunches for this group. Clarke will have difficulty keeping that tandem out of the scorebook, and when you factor in the high level that the role players of the Jays have been playing at, it’s hard to see the Indians keeping pace here. If they’re going to keep this one close and have a chance at pulling off an upset, they’ll need huge games from Jack Cooley Jack Cooley 6'5" | PF Clarke | 2024 State IA (20.2, 9.9 rebounds), Cole White Cole White 6'6" | C Clarke | 2024 IA (12.2, 8.3 rebounds), and Bo Otto Bo Otto 6'0" | PG Clarke | 2024 State IA (11.3, 8.4 assists).
Our pick: Bondurant-Farrar

Harlan (16-5) at Glenwood (15-7)

These teams split their regular-season meetings in a pair of tight games, with Harlan winning 62-57 on December 13 and Glenwood taking a 47-44 decision on January 10. Each team won on their home court, which would seem to give the edge here to Glenwood in the rubber match. That said, Harlan comes in as the team playing better basketball, winning six straight heading into this one, while Glenwood snapped a two-game skid with their first-round win over Atlantic. Harlan is led by a trio of double-figure scorers in Jacob Birch Jacob Birch 6'1" | SF Harlan | 2023 State IA (15.0, 9.1 rebounds), Bradley Curren Bradley Curren 5'11" | PG Harlan | 2023 State IA (12.7), and Franz Reisz (12.3, 8.9 rebounds). Glenwood counters with three of their own – Risto Lappala (14.5), Logyn Eckheart (12.3), and Caden Johnson Caden Johnson 5'10" | PG Glenwood | 2023 State IA (11.3, 7.3 assists). Neither team shoots it particularly well from the arc or the free-throw line, but we’ll side with the team playing better basketball at this point in time.
Our pick: Harlan