3A Bracket Preview: Picking Game-by-Game Ahead of State

Picking who wins each matchup, and the eventual 3A state champion before the games start next week in Des Moines.   <a href="https://prephoops.com/2026/03/1a-bracket-preview-picking-game-by-game-ahead-of-state/">1A Bracket Preview: Picking Game-by-Game Ahead of State</a>   <a href="https://prephoops.com/2026/03/2a-bracket-preview-picking-game-by-game-ahead-of-state/">2A Bracket Preview: Picking Game-by-Game Ahead of State</a>   <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-04-at-11.04.13-AM.png"><img src="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/03/Screenshot-2026-03-04-at-11.04.13-AM.png?w=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-3539497" /></a></figure>   The Quarterfinals:   Another clean sweep by the top four seeds en route to the semifinals.   Ballard is just too good with their top three to get upset in the first round at the hands of Gilbert. The mixture of [player_tooltip player_id='2419714' first='Evan' last='Abbott'], [player_tooltip player_id='1765518' first='Jude' last='Gibson'] and [player_tooltip player_id='2419750' first='Parker' last='Miller'] is too much for Gilbert to handle.   ADM is one of the hottest teams in the state, and though Xavier put together one of the top turnaround stories of the year, reaching state after posting a regular season record of 12-8 and pulling off the road win in the substate final over Dubuque Wahlert, the Saints have shown some serious resilience this season. [player_tooltip player_id='1978144' first='Zander' last='Murray'] has reached new heights during his senior campaign, averaging 20.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2 steals while shooting 52.7% from the field and 36.5% from three. [player_tooltip player_id='1765554' first='AJ' last='Evans'] is one of the top bigs in the state, putting up 12.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game, but ADM's star trio of [player_tooltip player_id='1978130' first='Hudson' last='Lorensen'], [player_tooltip player_id='1978115' first='Trey' last='Bryte'] and [player_tooltip player_id='1978146' first='Hudson' last='Shull'] is too much.   [player_tooltip player_id='2530471' first='Tate' last='McCollum'] has been sensational for the Spartans in his first year with Solon, putting up 19.2 points on 40.2% shooting from three while taking nearly 250 shots from deep this fall. But, [player_tooltip player_id='1765515' first='Jaidyn' last='Coon'] and Storm Lake have the better supporting cast, sending them to the semis vs. ADM.   The most interesting and difficult to pick of the first round was the four vs. five seed matchup between Pella and Carroll. A duo of squads that didnt' face off at all this season, Pella is led by one of the top scoring duos in 3A with seniors [player_tooltip player_id='2120763' first='Jack' last='McGuire'] and [player_tooltip player_id='2413561' first='Austin' last='Schulte'], who combine for 34.1 points per game. McGuire, a 6-foot-5 wing shoots 64.7% from the field, and adds a team-leading 6.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game. Schulte is right on his heals at 6.7 rebounds per game, while posting a team-lead 1.4 steals per contest. Altogether, the Dutch boast five players in their rotation that stand between 6-foot-3 and 6-foot-6, making them one of the better equipped teams physically.   Barely squeaking past Sioux Center in the substate final with a 58-55 win, Carroll enters next week's game with its only losses coming at the hands of other 3A state qualifiers, ADM, Gilbert, Ballard and Storm Lake. [player_tooltip player_id='2413644' first='Jared' last='Mohr'] is the leading scorer for the Tigers, putting up 14.9 points, while adding 8.4 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game. Not far behind are the trio of [player_tooltip player_id='2413647' first='Mac' last='Collison'], Trey Tassell and [player_tooltip player_id='3255087' first='Lual' last='Tharjiath'], who each average between 9.8 and 11.6 points, combining for 32.7 points per game. Tharjiath adds 7.7 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game as a 6-foot-6 big, while Collison serves as the three-point specialist, making 41.4% of his triples this season.   At the same time, Carroll's two signature wins this season came over Gilbert, and 2A Kuemper Catholic. Meanwhile, Pella beat 4A Norwalk twice, Keokuk with [player_tooltip player_id='1978100' first='Jaxon' last='Clark'] twice, Gilbert and 4A Dallas Center-Grimes.   So, though it will likely be a tight contest, Pella wins.   The Semis:   Guess what? Another loaded semifinal bracket.   After just lauding the season the Pella put together in order to predict their win over Carroll, Ballard sweeps through and handles the Dutch, as again, the trio of Abbott, Gibson and Miller is too much. Posting a wildly good record of 23-1 with their lone loss coming on the road at ADM, the Bombers have been the top team in 3A almost all season long. Abbott leads the way with 19.1 points, with Gibson's 16.5 and Miller's 12 per game not far behind. Each of the three shoot better than 51% from the field, 39% from three and 73% from the free throw line. I mean, who could stop that? Ballard goes to the finals with ease.   On the other side of the bracket, ADM and Storm Lake get their rematch from last season's 59-53 Tiger win in the quarterfinals. No doubt having revenge on his mind, don't be surprised if Coon plays with an added edge this game, putting up 30+ points and 10+ rebounds after averaging 21.4 points and 8.7 boards this season.. Waiting for a year with the bad taste of shooting jut 5-of-16 from the field to finish with 16 points, the Creighton commit could be out for blood in this one.   The Tigers won't make it easy, though, as their three-headed monster of Lorensen, Bryte and Shull is one of the best trios in the state. Bryte is a triple-double machine, Lorensen is the program's all-time leading scorer, and Shull, a star on the gridiron does so many little things for them on the court. Don't be surprised if ADM -- or Storm Lake, for that matter -- win the whole thing. They've got the talent to do it.   Coon is one of the most explosive athletes the state has had in the last few years, and if he's looking for vengeance, there may not be much ability to stop him. The Tornadoes go to the final.   The Title Game:   A battle for the ages.   With the obvious talent that Coon possesses, he brings enough to the table for the Tornadoes to win a title. The other pieces around him only solidify it. Cam Boyd, a Briar Cliff commit, may be one of the most overlooked players in the tournament. Coming in just behind Coon at 20.6 points, grabbing 5 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 2.2 steals per game while shooting an uber-impressive 50% from the field, 44.6% from three and 86.8% from the free throw line, Boyd is one of the best guards the state has to offer. Gabrieno Wieno, [player_tooltip player_id='2420801' first='Trey' last='Boettcher'], [player_tooltip player_id='2420795' first='Timothy' last='Yanga'] and [player_tooltip player_id='2419850' first='David' last='William'], each add between 7.9 and 10.6 points per game, too, combining for 38.3 per contest.   Ballard has their share of stardom outside of Abbott, Gibson and Miller, too, as [player_tooltip player_id='2731749' first='Easton' last='Ersland'] provides 8.5 points and 4.4 rebounds per game, and Mojoe Nybo puts up 7.1 points per contest while shooting 41.4% from deep.   Though the prediction is that the Tornadoes ride the play of their star scorer to the title, Ballard appears to have too much talent. Gibson's ability to attack off-the-dribble will be key, and the Bombers's top trio can beat opponents in so many ways, they find one to defeat Storm Lake in the 3A final.

Picking who wins each matchup, and the eventual 3A state champion before the games start next week in Des Moines.