Class 3A Substate Semifinal Preview

Thursday night will see 16 games played around the state, all Class 3A substate semifinals. There are a number of outstanding games around the state, and we've previewed and picked a winner for each game below. Get out and enjoy some excellent hoops on Thursday night!   Class 3A postseason picks record: 29-3   Substate 1   #5 Sioux Center (11-11) at #1 MOC-Floyd Valley (18-4)   The Dutchmen swept the season series against Sioux Center, with both wins coming in blowout fashion - 73-51 on December 10th, and 84-41 on January 24th. MOC-Floyd Valley is led by four double-figure scorers, all of whom were strong contributors on last year's state semifinalist team: seniors [player_tooltip player_id='2398061' first='Blake' last='Aalbers'] (19.5, 45.4 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1523401' first='Ahman' last='Langton'] (11.8, 3.8 assists), and [player_tooltip player_id='1951793' first='Owen' last='Vander Pol'] (11.1, 7.2 rebounds), and junior [player_tooltip player_id='1978131' first='Draeden' last='Punt'] (10.8). Punt is a great athlete with size and length, allowing them to deploy him on just about anyone. Sioux Center will need to have huge games from [player_tooltip player_id='2906403' first='Braedon' last='Perez-Hietbrink'] (14.0) and [player_tooltip player_id='2731903' first='Cody' last='Sandbulte'] (11.4) if they want to have any sort of chance here. The pick: MOC-Floyd Valley   #6 Heelan (10-12) at #2 Glenwood (19-4)   Heelan got a game-winning 3-pointer from junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1765514' first='Noah' last='Conley'] (15.4, 38.2 3P%) to advance to the semifinals, 58-57, over Sergeant Bluff-Luton. He's a quick guard who can score from all three levels as well as create plays for his teammates. The Crusaders also get good production out of [player_tooltip player_id='2731823' first='Kasen' last='Thomas'] (9.0, 6.7 rebounds) and Charlie Vaandrager (8.3, 5.4 rebounds), and it will be interesting to see how they try to defend Glenwood star wing [player_tooltip player_id='2617473' first='Ayden' last='Gibson'] (18.5, 8.0 rebounds, 45.7 3P%). Gibson has great size on the wing at 6-6, can score from all three levels, and is a versatile defender. His size and talent will be a tough assignment for Heelan. [player_tooltip player_id='2731811' first='Jack' last='Johnson'] (10.8, 4.3 assists) and Drew Schroeder (10.2) have been solid scorers and playmakers alongside Gibson as well this season. Heelan has played against a tougher schedule throughout the year, but the Gibson matchup and the road game gives the edge to the Rams. The pick: Glenwood   Substate 2   #4 Carroll (10-12) at #1 Storm Lake (20-1)   Storm Lake has put together a fantastic year, but the one blemish on the record is a loss to Carroll early in the season, 57-53. In that game, Carroll forced 14 turnovers, held Storm Lake to 30% shooting, and won despite shooting just 1-14 from the 3-point line (7.1%). Carroll got 15 points from [player_tooltip player_id='2413644' first='Jared' last='Mohr'] (12.9), 11 from Carter Essick (6.0), and 9 points and 10 rebounds from Noah Hinners (6.3, 5.0 rebounds). Those three, plus Stone Sibenaller (11.0), will need to be really good again here. Storm Lake star wing [player_tooltip player_id='1765515' first='Jaidyn' last='Coon'] (23.9, 8.7 rebounds, 57.5 FG%) had 22 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 blocks in that loss, and while he didn't shoot it well (6-17), he probably settled for 3s a little too often. Look for him to be in constant attack mode in this rematch. Sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='2420801' first='Trey' last='Boettcher'] (), who had 16 points and 7 rebounds, was the only other Tornado to score in double figures, and non-Coon or Boettcher Tornadoes shot just 5-23 (21.7%) in that loss. Don't expect the other options to struggle that badly again. The pick: Storm Lake   #3 Humboldt (15-7) at #2 Gilbert (14-8)   This is a matchup between a pair of high-powered offensive teams, with Humboldt averaging 73.8 points a game (4th in the class) and Gilbert putting up 66.0 a night (13th). They do their scoring in very different ways, with Humboldt averaging 27 3-point attempts per game, while Gilbert takes just 17 a night, so the 3-point line could be the ultimate difference-maker in this game. Humboldt has four players who have made at least 23 3-pointers on the season, including a pair in [player_tooltip player_id='2474854' first='Elliot' last='Carlson'] (21.3, 32.9 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='2511501' first='Coen' last='Matson'] (13.8, 37.8 3P%) that have combined to knock down 125 of them. The Wildcats haven't shot it great (33.5%) from the arc as a team, but sometimes basketball is a simple math problem: 3 > 2. And if you fire it up there enough, you're bound to make some of them. Gilbert's offensive attack is more centered on their ability to get to the rim and the free-throw line off the dribble and off-ball movement. [player_tooltip player_id='1765542' first='Preston' last='Stensland'] (17.4, 52.9 FG%), [player_tooltip player_id='1413686' first='Brody' last='Hague'] (15.6, 46.2 FG%), and [player_tooltip player_id='1765544' first='William' last='Terrones'] (9.1, 5.7 assists) are the headliners of the group, and [player_tooltip player_id='2511628' first='Will' last='Hawthorne'] (7.4, 9.0 rebounds) may give the Tigers an edge in the paint and on the glass. The pick: Gilbert   Substate 3   #5 Vinton-Shellsburg (10-13) at #1 Clear Lake (22-0)   This is the biggest mismatch of the round, with Vinton-Shellsburg ranking 42nd at BC Moore, and Clear Lake is #1 with a bullet. The Lions have been absolutely dominant this season, ranking 3rd in scoring offense (74.6) and 2nd in defense (43.6), and they shouldn't have too many issues against the Vikings here. Future Iowa tight end [player_tooltip player_id='1381416' first='Thomas' last='Meyer'] (17.1, 7.7 rebounds, 4.0 assists) has been fantastic as a senior, posting 66-55-67 shooting splits and controlling the paint on both ends, while sophomores [player_tooltip player_id='2419796' first='Jaxson' last='McIntire'] (11.0) and [player_tooltip player_id='2377642' first='Carson' last='Riser'] (10.5, 40.8 3P%) have been really good alongside him. Clear Lake goes deep into the bench, is hyper-athletic and fast, and they're really well-coached, balanced, and disciplined. If the Vikings are going to pull off the upset, they'll need to protect the ball, grind this one to a halt, and get some big production from [player_tooltip player_id='2886875' first='Jacoby' last='Johnson'] (13.0), [player_tooltip player_id='2906467' first='Colt' last='Koeppen'] (11.8), and [player_tooltip player_id='2906502' first='Kade' last='Sutton'] (10.0, 35.6 3P%). The pick: Clear Lake   #3 Nevada (19-4) at #2 Solon (17-5)   Points may be at a premium in this one, with both teams ranking within the top 10 in 3A in scoring defense. Nevada allows just 46.5 points per game, while Solon is allowing 51.5 a night. And when you couple those strong defensive numbers with a pair of teams that can, at times, struggle to score in the halfcourt, you may see a game played in the 40s or low 50s. Nevada junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1765535' first='John' last='Nelson'] (15.1, 2.4 blocks) is a versatile offensive player who can score inside and out as well as protect the rim. Easton Gray (11.6) likes to play downhill, and [player_tooltip player_id='2906523' first='Benjamin' last='Weiss'] (7.8, 44.7 3P%) has been the team's best shooting threat. For Solon, it's seniors [player_tooltip player_id='2721815' first='Caleb' last='Bock'] (13.7, 7.6 rebounds) and Isaiah Zoske (12.3) who lead the way. Bock is a tremendous athlete who loves to attack the glass on both ends of the floor, and Zoske can do a little bit of everything on both ends. The Spartans have gotten good production out of a pair of sophomores Maddox Kelley (8.5) and [player_tooltip player_id='2906429' first='Grant' last='Gordon'] (6.7) as well, giving them some additional scoring. This should be a tight, low-scoring game, with the edge going to the team that didn't have to travel nearly 2 hours to play the game. The pick: Solon   Substate 4   #4 Independence (10-13) at #1 Decorah (21-1)   Decorah has, at times, looked a little vulnerable in the last few weeks: a 2-point win over Osage, trailing Winterset by 9 at halftime. But Independence probably isn't the team to take advantage of potential vulnerability from the Vikings, who have, in fairness, won their last three games by an average of 26.7 points per game, more along the lines of how they looked early in the season. The inside-out tandem of [player_tooltip player_id='2413531' first='Cael' last='LaFrentz'] (29.3, 12.7 rebounds, 3.7 blocks, 65.0 FG%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1381408' first='Zach' last='Driscoll'] (21.1, 7.2 assists) is as good as it gets in the state, and they should be able to dominate this game on both ends of the floor. If the Mustangs are going to test Decorah, they'll need to get huge games from Brady Kurt (12.0), Brayden Ridder (10.9), and Dawson Fuelling (9.8, 36.4 3P%), as well as a massive effort on the defensive end against LaFrentz. The pick: Decorah   #3 Wahlert Catholic (13-9) at #2 Xavier (13-9)   Down at the bottom of the bracket we've got a pair of 13-9 MVC teams who are anxious to get a shot at Decorah in the substate final. Xavier won the regular-season meeting, 74-66, on January 21, up at Wahlert, so presumably they'll have the edge again getting to play this one at home. In that game, the Saints shot 58.7% from the floor, and nearly doubled up Wahlert on the glass, 33-17. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1978144' first='Zander' last='Murray'] (14.1, 38.1 3P%) was fantastic in that game, scoring 33 points on 12-17 shooting (6-10 3P), as was [player_tooltip player_id='1765554' first='AJ' last='Evans'] (11.4, 6.8 rebounds), who had 13 points, 14 rebounds, and 4 blocks. Those two, along with [player_tooltip player_id='2204878' first='Kaleb' last='Wilgenbusch'] (12.8, 38.6 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1361499' first='Lorenzo' last='Pino'] (8.1, 3.7 assists), give Xavier a great quartet of players who are a difficult matchup for any 3A team. Wahlert counters with four double-figure scorers: [player_tooltip player_id='2511484' first='Luke' last='Welbes'] (13.2, 4.4 assists), [player_tooltip player_id='1288882' first='Ethan' last='Meyer'] (13.0), [player_tooltip player_id='2721792' first='Owen' last='McCleary'] (11.3), and [player_tooltip player_id='1978134' first='Connor' last='Walsh'] (10.2, 48.9 3P%). The Golden Eagles are long on the perimeter and have some shooting, but they'll need to be much, much better on the glass if they are going to go down to Cedar Rapids and beat the Saints. The pick: Xavier   Substate 5   #4 Central DeWitt (11-11) at #1 Waverly-Shell Rock (17-5)   After losing a ton of production to graduation from a team that finished runner-up, Waverly-Shell Rock got off to a predictably slow start to the season. But the Go-Hawks are one of the hottest teams in the state since the holiday break, going 13-1 since the hiatus, with the lone loss coming to top-ranked Clear Lake. Senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1759905' first='Luke' last='Frazell'] (27.2, 7.6 rebounds, 45.8 3P%) is an elite scorer who Central DeWitt will struggle to contain. He has great size at 6-6, can create plays off the dribble, and is one of the best shooters I've seen in my time at PHIA. The Go-Hawks have gotten good production out of [player_tooltip player_id='2511478' first='Tyler' last='Gade'] (9.3, 52.1 FG%), [player_tooltip player_id='2511473' first='Nathan' last='Miller'] (7.7, 44.7 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='2886796' first='Preston' last='Baumhover'] (7.0), [player_tooltip player_id='2523910' first='Jayden' last='Stephens'] (6.0, 52.6 FG%), and Gavin Stockdale (5.4, 54.9 FG%), and with so much attention needing to be paid to Frazell, they do a great job capitalizing on open looks. Central DeWitt won't be a pushover, with senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1484410' first='Ryan' last='Watters'] (16.0, 9.1 rebounds, 1.4 blocks) presenting a potential matchup problem with his combination of size, athleticism, and versatility. He can score inside and out at 6-6/6-7, and the Sabers are able to surround him with [player_tooltip player_id='2811905' first='Max' last='Burgmeier'] (15.8, 43.7 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='2731756' first='Hudson' last='Krukow'] (7.1, 40.0 3P%), two more really good shooting threats. The pick: Waverly-Shell Rock   #3 Assumption (12-10) at #2 Clear Creek Amana (19-4)   After getting off to a slow 2-5 start to the season, defending champion Assumption has played well. The Knights were impressive in a 63-40 win over Williamsburg in the quarterfinals and have the athleticism and talent that can put pressure on CCA. [player_tooltip player_id='1759943' first='Braylon' last='Thomsen'] (15.1, 42.6 3P%) leads the team in scoring, but it's guard [player_tooltip player_id='1759900' first='Damyen' last='Jackson'] (14.4, 3.8 assists), who was captain of the 3A all-tournament team last season, who could be the real difference-maker here. He's lightning-quick, handles it well, and puts constant pressure on opposing defenses. The Clippers will likely throw a number of different defenders and defensive looks at him. CCA has been red-hot, winners of 12 straight, and three of their four losses this season have come to high-level 4A teams (Iowa City West, Kennedy, and Prairie), with the other coming to a Solon team that is also playing tonight. [player_tooltip player_id='1759949' first='Andrew' last='Rotzoll'] (16.5, 44.4 3P%) is the team's leading scorer and is an electric shooting threat who moves really well without the ball. This is a senior-heavy team, with nine of their top 10 players being seniors. Wing [player_tooltip player_id='2721822' first='Hayden' last='Umoren'] (11.9) has been a difference-maker for the Clippers on both ends of the floor. An Iowa City West transfer, he's a long, athletic 6-5/6-6 wing who can defend multiple positions and get to the rim. The pick: Clear Creek Amana   Substate 6   #4 Fort Madison (13-9) at #1 Knoxville (22-0)   Knoxville is one of just two undefeated teams left in the class (Clear Lake), and the Panthers have been dominant on both ends of the floor. They rank 6th in scoring offense (71.4) and 1st in defense (43.1). The Panthers are led by the Norris brothers - senior [player_tooltip player_id='1668669' first='Landen' last='Norris'] (20.2, 7.7 rebounds, 59.1 FG%) and sophomore [player_tooltip player_id='2231637' first='Lincoln' last='Norris'] (17.5, 44.2 3P%) - who have combined to be one of the best duos in the state. Landen is a long, athletic guard with good size who can create quality looks for himself and his teammates off the dribble, and Lincoln is one of the state's elite shooters. Senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='2511505' first='Kaiden' last='Smith'] (9.7, 7.1 rebounds, 70.5 FG%) is one of the state's best, most versatile, defenders and he really allows them to do some creative things on that end of the floor. Fort Madison is led by a quartet of double-figure scorers: [player_tooltip player_id='2731702' first='Nolan' last='Guzman'] (15.0, 4.3 assists), Kenden Bowie (13.0), Julian Dear (12.8, 7.1 assists), and [player_tooltip player_id='2511523' first='Dayton' last='Lamar'] (12.5, 2.5 blocks). The unfortunate news for the Bloodhounds is that Smith can essentially take away whoever is having a good start to the game. The big concern for Knoxville and their fate in the rest of 3A postseason play is their strength of schedule (61st of 64 3A teams), but that shouldn't be a factor here. The pick: Knoxville   #3 Keokuk (16-7) at #2 Mount Vernon (17-5)   This figures to be one of the best games of the night, with BC Moore's power rankings system making Mount Vernon about a 1.6-point favorite. Both teams have been great defensively, with the Mustangs ranking 7th in scoring defense (49.3) and Keokuk 5th (47.9). Mount Vernon forward Josef Briesemeister (17.2, 7.5 rebounds, 57.6 FG%) has had a really nice senior year on both ends of the floor, but he'll have his hands full with Keokuk star forward [player_tooltip player_id='1978100' first='Jaxon' last='Clark'] (22.6, 14.6 rebounds, 2.2 blocks), who has recently gone on visits to Purdue, Illinois, and Iowa. Clark's ability to not only impose his will on the block, but also create plays out of the post for his teammates or step out and stretch the floor make him a really difficult matchup for anyone, and he'll have a 4-5 inch advantage against Briesemeister. Expect Mount Vernon to throw some junk defenses at Clark and try to make the other Chiefs beat them. I took Keokuk in the substate preview, and I'll stick with it because of Clark, but this should be a really tight game throughout. The pick: Keokuk   Substate 7   #4 Grinnell (12-9) at #1 ADM (19-4)   Grinnell has been strong defensively this season, allowing just 49.2 points per game, 6th in the class, but they also play in a WaMaC that is pretty down this season, so running into the high-powered ADM offense will be a whole different animal. ADM is averaging 69 points a game, paced by juniors [player_tooltip player_id='1978130' first='Hudson' last='Lorensen'] (25.3, 55.1 FG%, 43.1 3P%), an elite three-level scorer, and nightly triple-double threat [player_tooltip player_id='1978115' first='Trey' last='Bryte'] (12.9, 6.9 rebounds, 6.5 assists). [player_tooltip player_id='1978146' first='Hudson' last='Shull'] (10.0, 42.2 3P%) is another gifted playmaker and scorer who is a great tertiary option for the Tigers. Grinnell is led by seniors [player_tooltip player_id='2721799' first='Derek' last='Doty'] (15.0) and [player_tooltip player_id='2511568' first='Ryan' last='McIlrath'] (11.5), who are experienced and physical wings who can get to the rim. Grinnell doesn't shoot it well from the 3-point line (26.2%), and they'll need to knock down some if they want to pull off the upset. The pick: ADM   #3 Newton (12-10) at #2 Pella (17-6)   Pella swept Newton in the regular season, winning 62-57 on December 20th and 72-51 on January 31. In those two games, the Dutch shot 52-97 (53.6%) from the floor, with a lot of the damage being done around the rim, either by getting out in transition or bullying their way to the bucket for finishes. Led by junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='2120763' first='Jack' last='McGuire'] (15.1, 66.5 FG%), Pella has been really good in the last month of the season, going 10-1 in their last 11 heading into this one. [player_tooltip player_id='2413561' first='Austin' last='Schulte'] (10.7) is the only other player averaging in double figures, but this is a group that comfortably goes 9 or 10 deep into the bench, and their depth has been a big benefit for them. A large part of the improvement for the Dutch following the holiday break has been an increased emphasis on the defensive end of the floor. That defense will be tough to crack for the Cardinals, led by seniors [player_tooltip player_id='2511456' first='Landon' last='Bozarth'] (11.8) and Cade Bauer (10.3). That tandem, and the role players for Newton, will need to shoot it really well from the 3-point line if they want to upset the Dutch. The pick: Pella   Substate 8   #5 North Polk (10-12) at #1 Ballard (19-2)   This is another matchup where the underdog picked up a win over the favored team during the regular season, with these teams splitting their two games. North Polk won the more recent matchup, 57-52, on January 24th, getting some revenge after a blowout Ballard win, 77-44, on December 13th. So what changed in those two meetings? In the Ballard win, the Bombers shot 31-53 (58.5%) from the floor. In the loss, they were 18-51 (35.3%). They didn't shoot it well from the arc in either game, and they forced a total of 36 turnovers in those two games. One of the big differences was transition buckets, as the Comets got back in transition well in the second game, limiting easy looks and getting their defense set. If they're able to slow the game down again, they can hang around. Ballard is led by the trio of [player_tooltip player_id='1765518' first='Jude' last='Gibson'] (16.0, 3.2 assists), [player_tooltip player_id='2397342' first='Jackson' last='Brown'] (12.7, 39.6 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='2419750' first='Parker' last='Miller'] (10.7, 6.1 rebounds), while North Polk counters with a more balanced attack with five players averaging between 7.2 and 10.1 points per game, led by [player_tooltip player_id='2887875' first='Jack' last='Spieker']. Turnovers have been an issue all year for the Comets (15.4 a game), and the upset loss during the regular season should have gotten Ballard's attention. The pick: Ballard   #3 Bondurant-Farrar (11-11) at #2 Des Moines Christian (17-5)   This is an interesting game because of the significant gap in strength of schedules for these teams. Bondurant-Farrar's SOS ranks 11th in the class, while Des Moines Christian, who plays a lot of 1A and 2A teams in their league, ranks 35th. That type of edge could come into play here for the Bluejays, who are led by seniors [player_tooltip player_id='2397327' first='Hudson' last='McConnell'] (17.0) and [player_tooltip player_id='2397237' first='Cole' last='Miller'] (12.3, 4.6 assists), a pair of really experienced players who were significant parts of the 2022-23 state championship team. Having a lead guard like Miller with so much experience could be huge here, and they may have an advantage with sophomore forward [player_tooltip player_id='2617495' first='Drake' last='Pfaltzgraff'] (10.9, 7.1 rebounds) in the paint as well. That said, B-F may struggle against the length and athleticism on the wing of DMC star [player_tooltip player_id='1759901' first='Seaton' last='Ingram'] (17.4, 7.7 rebounds), a hyper-athletic, versatile wing who can do a little bit of everything on both ends of the floor. [player_tooltip player_id='1978133' first='Max' last='Town'] (16.0, 52.4 FG%) has been really good as a perimeter scoring threat, and the Lions are always a deep team. They've struggled at times with turnovers this season (15.2 a game), and if they're loose with the ball, they could be in trouble. We took Des Moines Christian in the substate preview, and we'll stick with that, but this should be one of the best games of the night. The pick: Des Moines Christian

Thursday night will see 16 games played around the state, all Class 3A substate semifinals. There are a number of outstanding games around the state, and we've previewed and picked a winner for each game below. Get out and enjoy some excellent hoops on Thursday night!