Substate Preview: 3A-4

<!-- wp:image {"id":2779256,"sizeSlug":"large","linkDestination":"media"} --> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/3A-4.png"><img src="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/3A-4.png?w=617" alt="" class="wp-image-2779256" /></a></figure> <!-- /wp:image --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The favorite: </strong>For being the #2 ranked team in the class, <strong>Decorah</strong> didn't get any favors from the committee, getting three MVC teams in the bottom portion of the bracket, including two in Xavier and Wahlert who have spent a good chunk of the season in the top 10 themselves. The Vikings have lost just once this year, a five-point setback at the hands of Prairie, a top-10 team in 4A, but they have survived a few scares late in the season and will be looking to use the final week of the regular season to get back on track a bit. A high-powered offensive team with arguably the best one-two punch in the class, the Vikings are putting up 74.6 points per game. Junior center [player_tooltip player_id='2413531' first='Cael' last='LaFrentz'] (29.6, 12.4 rebounds, 3.9 blocks, 65.0 FG%) has been absolutely dominant this season on both ends of the floor, using his size and skill to control the game on both sides of the ball. Senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1381408' first='Zach' last='Driscoll'] (20.9, 7.1 assists) is one of the top playmakers and scorers at the guard position in the state, using his speed, handles, and elite shotmaking to give Decorah an inside-out tandem that is really difficult to beat. [player_tooltip player_id='2731781' first='Noah' last='Milburn'] (9.3, 50.6 FG%) is a really good athlete on the wing who can rebound, defend, and run the floor. Those three are really good, but there are some questions about the supporting cast. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The biggest threat:</strong> By virtue of an 8-point win at Wahlert in January, <strong>Xavier </strong>earned the #2 seed and thus gets the substate semifinal at home. The Saints have had an up-and-down season, playing really well against 3A competition and some of the lesser quality teams in the MVC, and getting trounced by the top teams in the league. Thankfully for them, they'll get to play 3A competition from here on out. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1978144' first='Zander' last='Murray'] (14.2, 38.8 3P%) is the team's leading scorer and shooting threat, a smooth guard who moves well without the ball, and who has improved as a playmaker. [player_tooltip player_id='2204878' first='Kaleb' last='Wilgenbusch'] (12.2, 38.9 3P%) has had a really nice senior season, shooting it well from the 3-point line and helping Murray space the floor, while junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1765554' first='AJ' last='Evans'] (12.1, 1.7 blocks, 61.4 FG%) is a long, athletic forward who can protect the rim and finish around it. This is a talented team that has a real chance to beat Decorah in the substate final. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The dark horse: Wahlert</strong> <strong>Catholic</strong> got off to a really good start to the season, going 8-2 in their first 10 games, but they have gone just 3-6 since. Granted, those losses have come at the hands of 4A #5 Kennedy, 4A #6 Senior, Xavier, 3A #2 Decorah, 4A #10 Prairie, and 4A #1 Cedar Falls, but they'd like to use the last week of the regular season to get some positive momentum heading into postseason play. The Golden Eagles are led by a quartet of double-figure scorers - seniors [player_tooltip player_id='1288882' first='Ethan' last='Meyer'] (12.9), [player_tooltip player_id='2511484' first='Luke' last='Welbes'] (12.8, 4.3 assists), [player_tooltip player_id='2721792' first='Owen' last='McCleary'] (11.5), and junior [player_tooltip player_id='1978134' first='Connor' last='Walsh'] (10.2, 47.2 3P%). This is a balanced team with a lot of length and talent on the perimeter, and their size and length across the board makes them difficult to defend offensively, and provides them with a lot of versatility on the defensive end. Neither Wahlert or Xavier should have too much trouble in their opening round games, setting up a doozy on February 27.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413531' first='Cael' last='LaFrentz'] (Decorah)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1381408' first='Zach' last='Driscoll'] (Decorah)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2420796' first='Cole' last='Shannon'] (Clinton)<br>2025 Brady Kurt (Independence)<br>2025 Brayden Ridder (Independence)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2204895' first='Victor' last='Ward'] (Charles City)<br>2025 Jordin Ritter (Charles City)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978144' first='Zander' last='Murray'] (Xavier)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2204878' first='Kaleb' last='Wilgenbusch'] (Xavier)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765554' first='AJ' last='Evans'] (Xavier)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413548' first='Nolan' last='Ehlinger'] (Maquoketa)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731850' first='Parker' last='Burmeister'] (Maquoketa)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1288882' first='Ethan' last='Meyer'] (Wahlert Catholic)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2511484' first='Luke' last='Welbes'] (Wahlert Catholic)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2721792' first='Owen' last='McCleary'] (Wahlert Catholic)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978134' first='Connor' last='Walsh'] (Wahlert Catholic)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419855' first='Brayden' last='Tanny'] (Western Dubuque)</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph {"fontSize":"medium"} --> <p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Xavier at Decorah</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Flip a coin for that substate semifinal game between Xavier and Wahlert, we'll side with the Saints at home. That would set up a huge test for Decorah, a team that I've liked all year, and a team with an elite one-two punch. That said, Xavier is probably one of the few teams in the class that has someone with the size and athleticism to hold his own against LaFrentz in [player_tooltip player_id='1765554' first='AJ' last='Evans'], and the Saints have more depth than the Vikings. It would be really tough to go up to Decorah and pull this off, but there's no way every home team wins in the substate final, right? <strong>Xavier</strong> punches their ticket to Des Moines, upsetting the Vikings in a great substate final. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph -->