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<p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>District 5</strong></p>
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<p><strong>The favorite: </strong>After seeing <strong>Aplington-Parkersburg</strong> play over the summer, there is no way I would've thought they could've been the #1 seed in a district. But Aaron Thomas has done arguably his best coaching job of the season, and the Falcons have improved tremendously. Their two losses have come to Grundy Center (undefeated, #5 in 2A) and Waverly-Shell Rock (ranked #6 in 3A), and they've pretty much dominated the rest of the teams on the schedule. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1765547' first='Benny' last='Waller'] (21.3, 41.5 3P%) is the headliner, a skilled three-level scorer who can take over games with his ability to create shots off the dribble. Caleb Campbell (13.1) gives them some size and athleticism on the wing, and freshman guard [player_tooltip player_id='2594659' first='Tyler' last='Wedeking'] (12.2, 41.3 3P%) is small in stature, but not in game. He's a knockdown shooter off the catch who moves really well without the ball in his hands. The Falcons expect to get big man Mason Ridder (7.9, 7.5 rebounds) back from injury for postseason play as well, which would be a big boost, especially in a potential district final against North Fayette Valley.</p>
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<p><strong>The biggest threat:</strong> It's not very often that you'll see an undefeated team as the #2 seed in a district, but that's the case with <strong>North Fayette Valley</strong>. The big knock on the TigerHawks is a strength of schedule that ranks 94th (out of 96) in Class 2A, with only eight of their 21 wins coming against 2A competition. That said, they have a Division II recruit leading the charge in 6-8 senior [player_tooltip player_id='1951832' first='Cael' last='Reichter'] (29.6, 15.2 rebounds, 61.8 FG%), an Upper Iowa commit. A highly skilled big man who can score inside and out (46.4 3P%), he's dominant on the glass and as a rim protector, and has the type of size that can cause some real problems in this district. Decklyn Heins (11.7) is the only other player averaging in double figures, while [player_tooltip player_id='2511611' first='Kyler' last='White'] (6.8, 5.9 assists) and Lincoln Aeschliman (6.7, 3.3 assists) give them a pair of experienced ball-handlers. The lack of competition is a real concern, but Reichter is the best individual player in the district and will be a force to be reckoned with.</p>
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<p><strong>The dark horse: </strong>The #3 seed in the district is Sumner-Fredericksburg, a team featuring a pair of double-figure scorers in senior guard Tatum Nuss (15.5) and sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='2381214' first='Liam' last='Steege'] (11.2). Going through the North Iowa Cedar League and facing off against the likes of Aplington-Parkersburg, Gladbrook-Reinbeck, Grundy Center, and Denver, the Cougars won't be intimidated by making a road trip to West Union to play NFV.</p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch</span><br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765547' first='Benny' last='Waller'] (Aplington-Parkersburg)<br>2025 Caleb Campbell (Aplington-Parkersburg)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2594659' first='Tyler' last='Wedeking'] (Aplington-Parkersburg)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1951832' first='Cael' last='Reichter'] (North Fayette Valley)<br>2025 Decklyn Heins (North Fayette Valley)<br>2025 Tatum Nuss (Sumner-Fredericksburg)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2381214' first='Liam' last='Steege'] (Sumner-Fredericksburg)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2772324' first='Talin' last='Hemann'] (Waukon)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2906515' first='Vaughn' last='Stegen'] (Waukon)<br>2026 Caden Rochford (New Hampton)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2398026' first='Conall' last='Sauser'] (Oelwein)</p>
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<p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>District 6</strong></p>
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<p><strong>The favorite: </strong>Senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1587383' first='Jackson' last='Lieurance'] (22.4) recently broke the career scoring record at <strong>Cascade</strong> and is the primary reason that the Cougars have been so good this season. A highly efficient scorer, he's shooting 55% from the floor and 45% from the 3-point line, using his intelligence and handles to get to his spots. He's an electric scorer who is a threat to drop 35+ on any given night when he gets rolling. [player_tooltip player_id='1978108' first='Mick' last='Hoffman'] (15.4, 38.2 3P%) gives the Cougs some additional scoring and shot creation on the wing, and [player_tooltip player_id='1405102' first='Nathan' last='Schockemoehl'] (10.4, 9.8 rebounds) is an undersized forward but is a tremendous athlete who pounds the glass hard on both ends of the floor. Lieurance is a special talent and should carry Cascade through this district. </p>
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<p><strong>The biggest threat:</strong> Despite having to go on the road to play their district semifinal, I actually think <strong>Jesup</strong> is the biggest threat to Cascade in the district. The J-Hawks have been tested playing in the North Iowa Cedar League and have a big scorer in senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1839807' first='Ryan' last='Treptow'] (20.3, 8.1 rebounds, 38.0 3P%), additional shooting in [player_tooltip player_id='2820112' first='Landon' last='Vogel'] (10.8, 36.2 3P%) and Gage Wymore (6.0, 36.0 3P%), and some size and toughness in [player_tooltip player_id='2906478' first='Parker' last='Masteller'] (9.2, 8.1 rebounds). </p>
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<p><strong>The dark horse:</strong> In this district, <strong>MFL MarMac</strong> faces the same problem that North Fayette Valley faces in District 5 - a lack of regular season competition. The Bulldogs' strength of schedule ranks 93rd in the class, slightly above NFV, and that's because they have to play the TigerHawks. MFL plays an up-tempo, attacking style on both ends of the floor, looking to use their speed to create turnovers and turn that into offense. [player_tooltip player_id='2511550' first='Parker' last='Kuehl'] (17.7, 3.5 steals) and [player_tooltip player_id='2617484' first='Carter' last='Lightfoot'] (12.2, 3.6 steals) are the lynchpins of the defensive attack, while Landyn Miene (12.6, 2.2 blocks) is the anchor, protecting the paint and allowing the guards to play more aggressively. If they can force turnovers and get out in transition, they can certainly win the district.</p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1587383' first='Jackson' last='Lieurance'] (Cascade)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978108' first='Mick' last='Hoffman'] (Cascade)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1405102' first='Nathan' last='Schockemoehl'] (Cascade)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2511550' first='Parker' last='Kuehl'] (MFL MarMac)<br>2025 Landyn Miene (MFL MarMac)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2617484' first='Carter' last='Lightfoot'] (MFL MarMac)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1839807' first='Ryan' last='Treptow'] (Jesup)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2820112' first='Landon' last='Vogel'] (Jesup)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2398131' first='Vince' last='Diers'] (Anamosa)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765552' first='Tristan' last='Faille'] (Anamosa)<br>2025 Josiah Minikwu (Postville)<br>2026 Alex Berg (Crestwood)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2386373' first='Drake' last='Sir'] (Crestwood)</p>
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<p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p>
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<p>Aplington-Parkersburg vs. Cascade</p>
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<p>If this game comes to fruition, it figures to be one of the better substate finals in the class. Both of these teams are capable of scoring in bunches and have star guards who can go back-and-forth against each other. A-P is probably the slightly deeper team, Cascade the more experienced group. And in postseason play, we'll give the edge to the more experienced team, with <strong>Cascade</strong> punching their ticket to Des Moines for the first time since going five straight times from 2014-18.</p>
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