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<p><strong>Substate 1: North Union (21-3) vs. South O'Brien (21-3) [at Spencer]</strong></p>
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<p>North Union has a chance to make history, as the school has never qualified for the state basketball tournament. The Warriors, behind an extremely balanced offensive attack, has a real chance to do so here. A senior-laden group led by Kody Irmiter (12.2, 8.6 rebounds), Preston Guerdet (11.5), and Aiden Lofstorm (11.0, 7.1 rebounds), this is a team that has six players averaging at least 7.0 points a game, and they've done a good job on the glass throughout the year. An athletic, physical team, they'll need to move the ball quickly against the South O'Brien 2-3 zone and look to pound the offensive glass. That 2-3 that the Wolverines play has once again frustrated teams defensively, with SOB ranking 11th in the class in scoring defense. They force a number of turnovers out of it, and force teams to beat them from deep, an area that is generally not the strongest in the War Eagle Conference. [player_tooltip player_id='2721643' first='Derek' last='Paulsen'] (15.4, 55.2 FG%) leads the team in scoring, while David Bottjen (12.5) and Willie Conley (12.0) provide some additional scoring. Offensive rebounding and the quickness and dribble penetration abilities of the North Union guards lead the Warriors to the state tournament for the first time in school history.<br><strong>The pick: North Union</strong></p>
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<p><strong>Substate 2: Lake Mills (23-1) vs. St. Mary's, Remsen (19-3) [at Spencer]</strong></p>
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<p>It'll be an offense vs. defense battle on Saturday afternoon in Spencer, with Lake Mills ranking 2nd in the class in scoring offense, averaging 78.8 points a game, while St. Mary's is 4th in scoring defense, allowing just 38.8 a night. These are two programs that have experienced a ton of success over the last decade, and this should be one of the most competitive games of the night. Lake Mills is led by senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1751213' first='Lance' last='Helming'] (19.4, 54.1 FG%, 42.7 3P%), the type of big, athletic combo forward who, at 6-5, could give the Hawks some issues on the offensive end. [player_tooltip player_id='1938210' first='Eli' last='Menke'] (16.7, 42.9 3P%) is a fantastic shooter, especially off the catch, and [player_tooltip player_id='1641849' first='Jackson' last='Gaul'] (11.9, 8.8 assists) has been dynamic with the ball in his hands, setting the tone for an up-tempo offense. [player_tooltip player_id='1288890' first='Aiden' last='Stensrud'] (16.6, 9.3 rebounds) will battle [player_tooltip player_id='1759937' first='Collin' last='Homan'] (16.5, 8.0 rebounds) in the paint all night on both ends of the floor. Homan has been a major contributor for a few Hawks state tournament teams and will need to be great if the Hawks are going to make another trip to Des Moines, as will junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1568264' first='Sam' last='Schmillen'] (12.7) and guard [player_tooltip player_id='2511517' first='Landon' last='Waldschmitt'] (8.7, 5.5 assists). St. Mary's is a very well-coached, strong defensive team, but Lake Mills has too many weapons.<br><strong>The pick: Lake Mills</strong></p>
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<p><strong>Substate 3: North Linn (22-1) vs. West Fork (20-4) [at Dike-New Hartford]</strong></p>
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<p>Ball security has been an issue at times for West Fork, turning it over 14.2 times a game, and that will be a significant issue against the Lynx, who force turnovers left and right on a nightly basis. With their constant pressure, the length of [player_tooltip player_id='1426164' first='Ty' last='Pflughaupt'] (19.9, 63.7 FG%, 2.7 steals), and the speed of [player_tooltip player_id='1484418' first='Mason' last='Bechen'] (20.7, 5.7 assists, 3.4 steals) and [player_tooltip player_id='1751216' first='Breckyn' last='Betenbender'] (10.1, 2.5 steals), North Linn flies all over the floor on the defensive end, and if teams aren't careful, they can drop a 12-0 run on you in 90 seconds and completely turn a game on its head. If West Fork is able to protect the ball and execute in the halfcourt, it'll be senior guards [player_tooltip player_id='1476981' first='Cayde' last='Eberling'] (20.0 3.7 assists) and [player_tooltip player_id='1454905' first='Sage' last='Suntken'] (17.3, 41.4 3P%) who are doing the damage. Eberling, a 6-3/6-4 guard, uses his size and strength to get to the rim, while Suntken is a knockdown shooter who can play with and without the ball in his hands. North Linn has been one of the preeminent programs in the state over the last decade, a school that is accustomed to playing in big games, and they aren't going to shy away from the moment.<br><strong>The pick: North Linn</strong></p>
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<p><strong>Substate 4: Marquette Catholic (24-1) vs. Dunkerton (20-4) [at West Delaware]</strong></p>
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<p>Both of these tams can score in bunches, with Marquette Catholic ranking 4th in scoring offense (75.5) and Dunkerton 5th (71.4). Both are comfortable playing in an up-tempo game, but they have also both proven capable of scoring in the halfcourt. Dunkerton is led by junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1436496' first='Dylan' last='Marquart'] (17.4, 39.3 3P%), one of the most dynamic guards in the class. He can shoot the lights out both off the dribble and the catch, and has really emerged as a playmaker this season. [player_tooltip player_id='1759946' first='Noah' last='Fuelling'] (16.4), [player_tooltip player_id='2325334' first='Jacob' last='Snyder'] (12.3, 8.9 rebounds), and [player_tooltip player_id='1834827' first='Dalton' last='Weepie'] (10.3, 54.8 FG%) give the Raiders more scoring. Marquette Catholic counters with the 6-5 combo forward [player_tooltip player_id='1759939' first='Spencer' last='Roeder'] (16.4, 8.2 rebounds) leading the charge. A skilled three-level scorer who shoots it well off the catch, he's capable of having explosive scoring nights and controlling the game defensively with his length and mobility. [player_tooltip player_id='2204880' first='Kannon' last='Still'] (10.8, 34.0 3P%) has emerged as a reliable shooter, and Eli Scott (11.5, 4.6 assists) has been a really good playmaker. [player_tooltip player_id='1338777' first='Caden' last='Kettmann'] (11.2, 6.0 rebounds) is their versatile, athletic defender who can put the clamps down on multiple positions. Both of these teams are strong offensively, but the Defenders, appropriately enough, are the better defensive team, which gives them an edge here in what should be a very entertaining game.<br><strong>The pick: Marquette Catholic</strong></p>
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<p><strong>Substate 5: Winfield-Mt. Union (19-2) vs. Holy Trinity Catholic (19-5) [at Fairfield]</strong></p>
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<p>Winfield-Mt. Union won the regular season meeting between these teams back on December 16, 55-40, down in Fort Madison. In that game, the Wolves outrebounded Holy Trinity 28-16 and shot 53.5% from the floor, using their size, physicality, and athleticism to their advantage. Those attributes should be on full display again in this rematch, as the Crusaders don't have the size and strength to contend with [player_tooltip player_id='1171697' first='Cam' last='Buffington'] (19.1, 54.4 FG%), or the size and length to deal with [player_tooltip player_id='1171698' first='Abram' last='Edwards'] (14.7, 11.6 rebounds). The Wolves have been elite on the defensive end this season, ranking 1st in the class in scoring defense, allowing just 34.7 points a game, so if the Crusaders are going to pull off the upset, they'll have a tall (literally) task in front of them. If they can do it, it'll be because of junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1622174' first='Luke' last='Hellige'] (24.2, 42.8 3P%), one of the best three-level scorers that people don't know about yet. At 6-5, he has great size on the wing, the size to shoot over most defenders, and he can create with the ball in his hands as well. Conner Gehling (15.8), a 6-3 forward, will have the task of controlling the glass, and [player_tooltip player_id='2397192' first='Adam' last='Sobczak'] (5.3, 8.7 assists) will need to protect the ball against a stellar defense. The size and toughness of WMU is too much to overcome, but Holy Trinity will bring back a good chunk of this roster and figures to be a factor again next season.<br><strong>The pick: Winfield-Mt. Union</strong></p>
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<p><strong>Substate 6: Gladbrook-Reinbeck (20-5) vs. Kee (22-2) [at Oelwein]</strong></p>
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<p>Another team that has a chance to make history on Saturday night is Kee. The Hawks have never even reached a substate final before this season, largely known as a baseball school, but they've put together a stellar season behind juniors [player_tooltip player_id='1951831' first='Jordan' last='Cota'] (19.5, 8.2 rebounds, 38.9 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='2397266' first='Dalton' last='Mudderman'] (17.0, 5.7 assists). Cota is a really good athlete who plays downhill, gets to the rim, and is their best perimeter shooter, while Mudderman is a physical guard who creates well off the dribble and gets his teammates involved. Kee may struggle against the size of Gladbrook-Reinbeck and forwards [player_tooltip player_id='2397981' first='Michael' last='Boyd'] (14.5, 7.4 rebounds) and [player_tooltip player_id='2397276' first='Drew' last='Eilers'] (12.8, 10.2 rebounds), a pair who have been excellent on the glass on both ends of the floor. The Rebels surround those two with some talented shooters in Isaac Clark (11.4, 37.0 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='2820164' first='Austen' last='Mathern'] (8.9, 34.6 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='2204862' first='Brandon' last='Mathern'] (5.4, 37.1 3P%). What wins out here? The size and rebounding of Gladbrook-Reinbeck, or the speed and athleticism of Kee? BC Moore's rankings system makes Gladbrook-Reinbeck a pretty sizable favorite here, but Kee seems like they may be a team of destiny.<br><strong>The pick: Kee</strong></p>
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<p><strong>Substate 7: Lynnville-Sully (23-1) vs. Bedford (23-2) [at Southwestern Community College]</strong></p>
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<p>Points will be tough to come by in this one, with Lynnville-Sully ranking 5th in scoring defense (39.3) and Bedford ranking 6th (41.3). Both teams like to play at a slower tempo, and both are well-coached, disciplined teams on the defensive end with players who can defend multiple positions and throw some different looks at their opposition. Bedford doesn't have any regular rotation players listed above 6-2, which could give Lynnville-Sully a significant edge with the 6-6 [player_tooltip player_id='1376719' first='Klayton' last='Van Dyke'] (12.6, 7.0 rebounds, 2.1 blocks, 67.5 FG%) controlling the paint and the glass on both ends of the floor. A mobile, athletic forward who protects the rim and finishes well around the bucket, he could have a huge game against the smaller Bulldogs. [player_tooltip player_id='2377418' first='Mitchell' last='Miller'] (13.1) is a long, athletic wing who can score from all three levels, and senior point guard [player_tooltip player_id='1171666' first='Corder' last='Noun Harder'] (8.7, 4.9 assists) is a tough, quick guard who controls the tempo and gets his teammates involved. Bedford is led by junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1874772' first='Cal' last='Peterman'] (15.7, 8.6 rebounds), who may have trouble finishing inside against Van Dyke. The Bulldogs don't shoot it well from deep (28.8 3P%), but they pound the offensive glass (13.0), an area that they'll need to focus on if they want to upset the Hawks here. <br><strong>The pick: Lynnville-Sully</strong></p>
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<p><strong>Substate 8: Madrid (22-2) vs. Woodbine (22-2) [at Carroll]</strong></p>
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<p>Woodbine avenged a pair of regular-season losses to Exira-EHK to get here, but the challenge against Madrid is another step up in competition. Madrid got a taste of the state tournament last season, giving North Linn a great game in the quarterfinals, and a junior-heavy team is hungry to get back, knowing that they have a real chance at winning it all. [player_tooltip player_id='1174816' first='Toryn' last='Severson'] (22.4, 40.2 3P%), a 6-4 wing who can score from all three levels, is the headliner of a talented junior group, but there are two other really, really good players alongside him in [player_tooltip player_id='2397210' first='Brody' last='Buck'] (17.7, 37.0 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='2398087' first='Fabian' last='Ortiz-Alaniz'] (15.0, 6.7 assists, 41.5 3P%). Woodbine is another young, talented team led by two juniors, two sophomores, and a freshman. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1951827' first='Carter' last='Gruver'] (20.2, 4.5 assists) leads the team in scoring and assists, while freshman wing [player_tooltip player_id='1977076' first='Landon' last='Blum'] (12.9) is a raw, but potentially game-changing, athlete who can do a little bit of everything. Woodbine will need to play a very disciplined, efficient game if they are going to knock off Madrid, but even if they don't, they're going to be heard from heavily next season.<br><strong>The pick: Madrid</strong></p>
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Substate 1: North Union (21-3) vs. South O'Brien (21-3) [at Spencer]
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