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<p><strong>The favorite: </strong>The highest scoring team in 3A, <strong>Storm Lake</strong>, is the top seed in this substate. Knowing that they wouldn't really be tested by anyone in their conference, they went out and added some real beef to the schedule, with games against Carroll, Sioux Falls Christian (SD), Omaha Westside (NE), Kuemper Catholic, and Sioux City East, among others. The Tornadoes are averaging 79.2 points per game and have won games by an average of just under 29 points per game. Senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1765515' first='Jaidyn' last='Coon'] (22.6, 9.1 rebounds, 54.5 FG%), a Creighton signee, is the headliner of the group, but he's currently injured, and there have been some conflicting reports regarding his availability for postseason play. If he is able to suit up and play, Storm Lake is a heavy, heavy favorite in this substate. If he's still sidelined through substate action, they're still the favorite, but things could get dicey. Senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1765508' first='Cameron' last='Boyd'] (20.5, 3.7 assists, 45.8 3P%) has been excellent alongside Coon, giving them a strong second scorer and great shooting threat. [player_tooltip player_id='2833525' first='Garbieno' last='Weno'] (10.5, 7.7 rebounds), [player_tooltip player_id='2420795' first='Timothy' last='Yanga'] (10.3), and [player_tooltip player_id='2419850' first='David' last='William'] (8.2) provide a ton of length, athleticism, and defensive versatility, and junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='2420801' first='Trey' last='Boettcher'] (10.0, 40.0 3P%) gives them more shooting. No team in this substate, healthy Coon or not, has the type of length and athleticism that Storm Lake possesses. </p>
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<p><strong>The biggest threat: Sergeant Bluff-Luton</strong> and Heelan split their season series, with each winning on their home floor. The Warriors will get the rubber match at home in the semifinals, giving them an edge to come out of the bottom of the bracket. Sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='2772340' first='Kylen' last='Vander Schaaf'] (18.6, 5.2 assists, 42.7 3P%) and junior [player_tooltip player_id='2754687' first='Ajay' last='Vander Schaaf'] (11.9, 36.1 3P%), the sons of head coach Adam Vander Schaaf, are high IQ, skilled scorers and playmakers in the backcourt. [player_tooltip player_id='2754699' first='Gavin' last='Ahrendt'] (10.3, 7.8 rebounds, 1.1 blocks) gives them some size, athleticism, and physicality in the paint, and [player_tooltip player_id='2731883' first='Dylan' last='Janzen'] (9.6, 40.0 3P%) has given them some more scoring. This is a young team, set to return seven of their top eight scorers next season, so any success they have find in this substate play will be a springboard for next year.</p>
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<p><strong>The dark horse: Heelan</strong>, led by senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1765514' first='Noah' last='Conley'] (15.4), is playing well down the stretch, posting good wins over Western Christian and Council Bluffs Lincoln in the last week of the season. Conley is a skilled lead guard who can create quality looks for himself and his teammates off the dribble. [player_tooltip player_id='2979490' first='Abe' last='Scott'] (10.5, 53.5 FG%) is a good finisher around the rim, a tough and physical wing, and junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='2967587' first='Asser' last='Mutombo'] (9.9, 8.0 rebounds) has been great since becoming eligible following his transfer from Sioux City East. [player_tooltip player_id='2420797' first='Grant' last='Whitcomb'] (9.1, 42.6 3P%) provides some shooting, and three others average between 4.1 and 4.2 points per game, giving them some serious depth. The Crusaders are capable of beating anyone in this substate, and if Coon's health is a factor, they could be a team that makes a trip to Des Moines.</p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765515' first='Jaidyn' last='Coon'] (Storm Lake)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765508' first='Cameron' last='Boyd'] (Storm Lake)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2833525' first='Garbieno' last='Weno'] (Storm Lake)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2420795' first='Timothy' last='Yanga'] (Storm Lake)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2420801' first='Trey' last='Boettcher'] (Storm Lake)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419850' first='David' last='William'] (Storm Lake)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2772340' first='Kylen' last='Vander Schaaf'] (Sergeant Bluff-Luton)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2754687' first='Ajay' last='Vander Schaaf'] (Sergeant Bluff-Luton)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2754699' first='Gavin' last='Ahrendt'] (Sergeant Bluff-Luton)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765514' first='Noah' last='Conley'] (Heelan)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2979490' first='Abe' last='Scott'] (Heelan)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2967587' first='Asser' last='Mutombo'] (Heelan)<br>2026 Chase Flaherty (Humboldt)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2886829' first='Jackson' last='Flaherty'] (Humboldt)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2754704' first='Nathan' last='Manske'] (Algona)<br>2028 Jacob Burns (Algona)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2382569' first='Landon' last='Campe'] (Algona)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731820' first='Dallas' last='McDowell'] (Harlan)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2754668' first='Kobe' last='Klaassen'] (Harlan)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413616' first='Gavin' last='McLaren'] (Atlantic)<br>2026 Kale Jensen (Atlantic)<br>2026 Blaine Grady (Denison-Schleswig)</p>
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<p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p>
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<p>Heelan at Storm Lake</p>
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<p>I'll go with the slight upset, taking Heelan to win the rubber match against a young SBL team in the semifinals. Storm Lake, healthy Coon or not, shouldn't have any issues in the top of the bracket. After reaching the state tournament and falling in the quarterfinals last year, <strong>Storm Lake</strong> is anxious to get another shot, and I think they'll get that opportunity. I'll operate under the assumption that [player_tooltip player_id='1765515' first='Jaidyn' last='Coon'] is healthy for this game, and for the state tournament, and if he is, the Tornadoes have about as good a chance as anyone to win it all.</p>
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