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<p><strong>The favorite: </strong>Since getting star guard [player_tooltip player_id='1765547' first='Benny' last='Waller'] (21.3, 8.6 rebounds) back from injury, <strong>Aplington-Parkersburg</strong> has been on a roll, going 11-1 with the lone loss coming by five to Grundy Center. They've posted strong wins against Denver, East Marshall, and Union, to name a few, during that stretch. Waller is a fantastic three-level scorer who can take over games with his ability to score in bunches, and he has really improved his playmaking over the last few years. Sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='2594659' first='Tyler' last='Wedeking'] (15.8, 38.1 3P%) is another big-time scorer on the perimeter who can help space the floor and give Waller more room to attack. Freshman big man Charlie Wessels (8.7, 56.9 FG%) has been a revelation, coming on really strong down the stretch and playing quality ball on both ends of the floor. When they're clicking, they force turnovers, play fast, and have a ton of players who can put the ball in the bucket. They're a pretty heavy favorite in this district.</p>
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<p><strong>The biggest threat: Crestwood </strong>has put together a really strong season, entering postseason play with a 17-5 record and the #3 scoring offense in 2A at 72.0 points per game. The Cadets are led by a trio of double-figure scorers in senior Luke Drtina (14.0, 3.1 assists) and sophomores [player_tooltip player_id='2386373' first='Drake' last='Sir'] (13.9, 40.6 3P%) and Cody Sobolik (10.1, 6.9 rebounds). The Cadets are a team that shares the ball really well, averaging just under 18 assists per game, and they pound the offensive glass (11.4). The problem with the Cadets is their strength of schedule, ranking in the low 60s in 2A. Their best win is probably against 1A South Winneshiek, a team that hasn't been ranked at any point this season. </p>
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<p><strong>The dark horse: </strong>If <strong>Waukon</strong> can get past Postville in the opening round, it'll set up a third meeting against conference rival Crestwood. The Indians lost both games against the Cadets this season, but one came by six points and the other by seven in overtime, so they know that they can play with Crestwood. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2906515' first='Vaughn' last='Stegen'] (15.8, 37.8 3P%) is the leading scorer, while sophomore forward [player_tooltip player_id='2772324' first='Talin' last='Hemann'] (12.6, 6.0 rebounds) has been strong in the paint and on the glass. Those two handle a pretty significant chunk of the scoring and will need to be great if they're going to upset Crestwood, but if they can upset the Cadets, they'll go into that district final against A-P playing with house money.</p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765547' first='Benny' last='Waller'] (Aplington-Parkersburg)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2594659' first='Tyler' last='Wedeking'] (Aplington-Parkersburg)<br>2029 Charlie Wessels (Aplington-Parkersburg)<br>2026 Luke Drtina (Crestwood)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2386373' first='Drake' last='Sir'] (Crestwood)<br>2028 Cody Sobolik (Crestwood)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2906515' first='Vaughn' last='Stegen'] (Waukon)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2772324' first='Talin' last='Hemann'] (Waukon)<br>2026 Xander Martinez (Postville)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2617484' first='Carter' last='Lightfoot'] (MFL MarMac)<br>2026 Dawson Dietrick (Dike-New Hartford)<br>2028 Corbin McCarter (Dike-New Hartford)</p>
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<p><strong>The favorite:</strong> By virtue of the head-to-head season sweep, <strong>Monticello </strong>earned the top seed in the district and will get to host the district final, should they get there. The Panthers have, at times this season, struggled to score, but the defense has been stout, allowing just 45.9 points per game. Senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1765541' first='Conley' last='Schauf'] (21.8, 36.9 3P%) is a fantastic scorer who can take over games with his ability to fill it up from all three levels. [player_tooltip player_id='2886871' first='Alex' last='Jamison'] (14.0, 4.1 assists) is a long, lanky wing who has really improved in his senior year and become a reliable second scoring threat, and the third option can be any one of four or five different players on a given night. The Panthers are going to go as Schauf goes, and if he's playing well, they'll represent this district in the substate final. </p>
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<p><strong>The biggest threat: Cascade </strong>has lost twice to Monticello, which means they'll have the more difficult semifinal matchup and will have to go on the road for the district final, should they get there. The Cougars are led by senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1978108' first='Mick' last='Hoffman'] (24.7), who has firmly established himself as one of the state's elite scorers in 2A. He hasn't shot it well from the 3-point line (28%), but is a better shooter than that and if he gets rolling, he's tough to stop. [player_tooltip player_id='3255106' first='Tyler' last='Smith'] (11.6) is a nice complementary piece in the backcourt, and then a number of players contribute in a variety of different ways behind those two. There is a ton of familiarity with Monticello and Cascade, and the Cougars are itching to get a third shot at the Panthers.</p>
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<p><strong>The dark horse: Wilton </strong>can be really up-and-down, but when the Beavers are playing well, they can beat just about anyone. They have a pair of wins over Alburnett and have beaten Beckman Catholic, while also playing Cascade, Regina, and Mid-Prairie tough. Junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='2419757' first='Bryer' last='Putman'] (21.4, 11.9 rebounds) is one of the best individual players in the substate. He's a great athlete who can impact the game on both ends of the floor, scoring in bunches, dominating the glass, and averaging nearly six stocks per game. Classmate [player_tooltip player_id='2419764' first='Oaklan' last='Jirak'] (21.0, 52.1 FG%) has been an elite scorer as well this season alongside Putman, giving them a pair of guys who can take over the game and put the ball in the bucket. Defense has always been a question for the Beavers, and they'll need to lock in on that end, but the offensive firepower is there for this group to make a surprising run.</p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch</span><br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765541' first='Conley' last='Schauf'] (Monticello)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2886871' first='Alex' last='Jamison'] (Monticello)<span style="text-decoration: underline"><br></span>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978108' first='Mick' last='Hoffman'] (Cascade)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3255106' first='Tyler' last='Smith'] (Cascade)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419757' first='Bryer' last='Putman'] (Wilton)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419764' first='Oaklan' last='Jirak'] (Wilton)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731645' first='Jayden' last='Harris'] (West Branch)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765552' first='Tristan' last='Faille'] (Anamosa)<br></p>
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<p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p>
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<p>Aplington-Parkersburg vs. Monticello</p>
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<p>These two programs have had a ton of success over the last decade and if this is the substate final that comes to be, it'll be a fascinating matchup between the high-powered offense of Aplington-Parkersburg and the stout defense of Monticello. <strong>Aplington-Parkersburg</strong> has been the more consistent team this season and have played great basketball since getting Waller back in the lineup. Falcons to the state tournament.</p>
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