Can Heavy Favorite Pella Avoid a Slip-Up in 3A-5?

<!-- wp:image {"id":3506645,"sizeSlug":"large","linkDestination":"media"} --> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/02/Screen-Shot-2026-02-18-at-1.54.15-PM.png"><img src="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/02/Screen-Shot-2026-02-18-at-1.54.15-PM.png?w=611" alt="" class="wp-image-3506645" /></a></figure> <!-- /wp:image --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The favorite: </strong>The top-seeded <strong>Pella </strong>Dutch have to be happy not to see Oskaloosa as the #2 or 3 seed in this substate, given that the Indians handed them two of their four losses this season. The other two losses have come against 4A schools - Waukee and Dallas Center-Grimes. Senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='2120763' first='Jack' last='McGuire'] (17.3) and guard [player_tooltip player_id='2413561' first='Austin' last='Schulte'] (17.1) are the best one-two punch in this substate, both capable of dominating games on the offensive end. McGuire, a 6-5 wing, has really improved as a playmaker off the dribble as well as become a more consistent shooting threat, knocking down a respectable 34% from 3. Schulte, a 37.5% shooter, has also improved as a ball-handler in his senior year, giving the Dutch a pair of dynamic scoring threats. They're joined by a slew of good athletes who can impact the game on both ends of the floor - [player_tooltip player_id='3255121' first='Harrison' last='Mullens'] (8.7), [player_tooltip player_id='2439145' first='Griffin' last='Simpson'] (6.8), Davis Garner (5.1), and Michael Manning (4.4) being the main contributors. The Dutch have played the most difficult schedule in this substate, have the best depth, most talent, and are a pretty substantial favorite here.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The biggest threat: </strong>The favorite to come out of the bottom of the bracket is <strong>Center Point-Urbana</strong>, a team that enters postseason play with a 17-5 record with quality wins over Central DeWitt, Marion (twice), Decorah, Mount Vernon, and Solon. They're led by senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1765520' first='Cooper' last='Grimm'] (15.0, 5.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists), a do-it-all guard who can create plays for his teammates at a high level or score from all three levels with remarkable efficiency, posting 51-42-67 shooting splits. [player_tooltip player_id='2886825' first='Cayle' last='Estling'] (10.9, 5.3 assists) is another talented playmaker who can shoot it well from 3, burying just under 42% of his 3-point attempts, and as a whole, this is probably the best 3-point shooting team (36.2%) in the substate. They share the ball well, dishing out 17.3 assists per game, and have a deep, balanced rotation of players who can each do a little bit of everything. Outside of an occasional stretch from Grimm, the Stormin' Pointers aren't going to overwhelm anyone, but they're just really consistent, won't beat themselves, and have great chemistry. They're going to be a tough out.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The dark horse: </strong>The most dominant individual player in this substate is [player_tooltip player_id='1978100' first='Jaxon' last='Clark'] (29.0, 17.2 rebounds, 2.0 blocks), the 6-11 center from <strong>Keokuk</strong>. A Division I talent with elite size, great footwork, soft touch, and the ability to step out and stretch the floor as well, he's the type of individual talent who can take over a game and carry the Chiefs to a few upset wins. His younger brother, sophomore wing Jalen Clark (11.1), is a good athlete on the perimeter who can play downhill and get to the rim, and senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='3255124' first='Chayce' last='Smith'] (10.6) is another really good, long athlete. The Chiefs lost to Pella, 70-46, early in the season, so it would be an uphill battle should they reach the substate final and meet the Dutch, but with Clark in tow, anything is possible.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2120763' first='Jack' last='McGuire'] (Pella)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413561' first='Austin' last='Schulte'] (Pella)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765520' first='Cooper' last='Grimm'] (Center Point-Urbana)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2886825' first='Cayle' last='Estling'] (Center Point-Urbana)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978100' first='Jaxon' last='Clark'] (Keokuk)<br>2028 Jalen Clark (Keokuk)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419825' first='Nic' last='Stone'] (Washington)<br>2026 Drew Conrad (Washington)<br>2026 Rajan Roth (Washington)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731702' first='Nolan' last='Guzman'] (Fort Madison)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2770487' first='Darius' last='Foy'] (Fort Madison)<br>2027 Aden Wolfe (Grinnell)<br>2026 Kegan Hobbs (Grinnell)<br>2028 Jett Morris (Burlington)<br>2027 Ethan Bisgard (Fairfield)</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph {"fontSize":"medium"} --> <p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Center Point-Urbana at Pella</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>CPU has had a really good year, and the Stormin' Pointers have been building towards this season for a while now. They aren't going to go down without a fight, and are a team that is capable of beating anyone in 3A. That said, <strong>Pella</strong> has too much firepower in the form of McGuire and Schulte, a pair of players who the Pointers could struggle to match up with. The Dutch getting this game at home, in what can be a hostile atmosphere, is big, and the significant difference between the Little Hawkeye Conference and the WaMaC is shown here.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph -->