Substate Preview: 4A-8

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/4A-8.png"><img src="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/4A-8.png?w=787" alt="" class="wp-image-2779280" /></a></figure>   The favorite: Two-time defending champion Valley faced some adversity this season following the transfers of Curtis Stinson Jr to Western Reserve Academy (Ohio) and [player_tooltip player_id='1759897' first='Kyle' last='Cason'] (Dallas Center-Grimes). Then star returnee [player_tooltip player_id='1288899' first='Xzavion' last='Robinson'] (16.0, 51.2 FG%) sat out the first chunk of the schedule recovering from a football injury. And while the Tigers could certainly never reach their plateau without Robinson in the lineup, perhaps having him sidelined for 7 or 8 games helped some of the role players get accustomed to newer roles, making this group better in the long run. Senior big man [player_tooltip player_id='1759895' first='Trevin' last='Jirak'] (16.7, 9.0 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.0 blocks) has been exceptional this season as the team's go-to playmaker, scorer, and the anchor of the team defensively. The future Northern Iowa big man has incredible vision for a big man and is one of the most skilled passers in the state, regardless of position. The aforementioned Robinson is one of the best athletes in the state, a high-flying guard who can score from anywhere on the floor, and junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1765532' first='Jayden' last='McGregory'] (15.2, 50.2 FG%) has really come into his own this season, providing more size, playmaking, and athleticism on the wing. [player_tooltip player_id='1381407' first='Kiki' last='Deng'] (12.3), a key piece on the last two state champion teams, gives them even more shotmaking and defensive intensity on the wing. The Tigers swept Ankeny during the regular season, and I don't think we've seen the peak of their defensive abilities yet this season.   The biggest threat: Ankeny beat Dallas Center-Grimes, 50-48 at DCG, on January 21, which is probably what gave the Hawks the edge for the #2 seed in this substate despite a 10-11 record. As they've shown with wins over Linn-Mar, Johnston, Dowling, and DCG, the Hawks can be dangerous. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1977422' first='Rio' last='Aguirre'] (19.6, 5.5 assists) has been fantastic this season as the lead option, both as a scorer and facilitator. There are games where he can drop 30+ on you, and games where he'll take what is given to him and dish out 10+ assists. He has a great feel and is a really skilled all around player. Sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='2381210' first='Jasani' last='Campbell'] (12.3) is a dynamic scoring threat as well who has come on strong down the stretch this season. Those two carry a heavy load with the scoring, but the Hawks are a team that can pretty comfortably go 8 or 9 deep with talented, physical athletes and odds are at least one or two of the role players will step up on any given night to play strong games. The Hawks have played the #2 ranked strength of schedule in 4A this season (compared to #27 for DCG) and get the semifinal at home, giving them an edge.   The dark horse: After getting off to a slow 1-3 start, Dallas Center-Grimes has gone 16-2 the rest of the way heading into postseason play riding a 10-game winning streak. The Mustangs are led by Valley transfer [player_tooltip player_id='1759897' first='Kyle' last='Cason'] (22.6, 7.9 rebounds), who is having a sensational senior season, showcasing his three-level scoring abilities. [player_tooltip player_id='1759907' first='Tate' last='Perrin'] (10.9, 37.5 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='2772348' first='Chase' last='Perrin'] (6.1, 44.0 3P%) are both really good shooters, and [player_tooltip player_id='2204886' first='Mateo' last='Dzolota'] (8.6, 5.6 assists) is a talented playmaker with the ball in his hands. DCG also has some size in the form of 6-7 [player_tooltip player_id='2754666' first='Brody' last='Burke'] and 6-10 Luke Lorenzen. Both would absolutely have their hands full with Jirak in the substate final, should they get there, but they do have size that no other team in the substate has to throw at Valley.   Players to Watch 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1759895' first='Trevin' last='Jirak'] (Valley) 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1288899' first='Xzavion' last='Robinson'] (Valley) 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765532' first='Jayden' last='McGregory'] (Valley) 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1381407' first='Kiki' last='Deng'] (Valley) 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1977422' first='Rio' last='Aguirre'] (Ankeny) 2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2381210' first='Jasani' last='Campbell'] (Ankeny) 2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2523891' first='Carter' last='Thielen'] (Lewis Central) 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2511578' first='Rex' last='Smith'] (Southeast Polk) 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1736401' first='Emmanuel' last='Tete'] (Southeast Polk) 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1759897' first='Kyle' last='Cason'] (Dallas Center-Grimes) 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1759907' first='Tate' last='Perrin'] (Dallas Center-Grimes) 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2204886' first='Mateo' last='Dzolota'] (Dallas Center-Grimes) 2025 Cade Westerhoff (Fort Dodge)   SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION   Ankeny at Valley   Valley swept the regular-season series, winning by 11 on opening night and by just 4 at Ankeny on January 10. That 4-point loss may give Ankeny some hope heading into the substate final, and while it will be a good game, Valley's defensive intensity can still be turned up another notch, and the Tigers will unleash the pressure if need be here, which can be absolutely suffocating. Valley beats Ankeny for a third time this season and heads down the road to Wells Fargo Arena where they'll attempt to 3-peat.