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<p><strong>The favorite:</strong> In junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1978130' first='Hudson' last='Lorensen'] (24.6, 53.9 FG%, 38.8 3P%), <strong>ADM</strong> has the most dynamic individual player in the substate. An explosive scorer who can take over games in the blink of an eye with his ability to get to the rim, knock down shots from the mid-range, or stretch the floor from 3, he's an elite scorer who is extremely difficult to slow down. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1978115' first='Trey' last='Bryte'] (13.1, 6.4 assists), a 6-3 lead guard, has been excellent this season as a playmaker and distributor, and [player_tooltip player_id='1978146' first='Hudson' last='Shull'] (10.2, 41.6 3P%) is a knockdown shooter off the catch who can also create plays off the dribble. The Tigers have lost just four times this season - once to top-ranked Clear Lake, twice to 3A #4 Ballard, and a stubbing of the toe against Gilbert. With Lorensen in tow, this is the team to beat.</p>
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<p><strong>The biggest threat: Pella </strong>has been playing really good basketball over the last few months, going 11-2 over their last 13 games, with both losses coming to Dallas Center-Grimes. After reaching the state tournament last year, perhaps a year ahead of schedule, expectations were high heading into the season, and while it took a while to get going, it seems as though Pella has finally started to round into the team we expected. Junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='2120763' first='Jack' last='McGuire'] (14.9, 65.7 FG%) is the headliner of the group, a highly efficient downhill attacker who can take over games as a scorer and playmaker. [player_tooltip player_id='2413561' first='Austin' last='Schulte'] (10.8, 34.9 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1484417' first='Brayden' last='Traetow'] (6.7, 37.3 3P%), Tyson Barnes (6.0, 44.4 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='2439145' first='Griffin' last='Simpson'] (6.0, 34.4 3P%) all provide additional shooting to help space the floor for McGuire. The Dutch are one of the deeper teams in 3A and their depth could become a factor as postseason play progresses. </p>
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<p><strong>The dark horse: Newton</strong> was swept by Pella in the regular season, but the Cardinals would surely like to get a third shot at the Dutch in the semifinals. Senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='2511456' first='Landon' last='Bozarth'] (11.6, 37.3 3P%) leads a balanced attack. He's a versatile three-level scorer with some length and athleticism on the wing, while [player_tooltip player_id='2413557' first='Caden' last='Klein'] (9.3, 38.5 3P%) and Cade Bauer (9.3, 32.6 3P%) provide some additional scoring and shooting punch. Honestly, outside of ADM and Pella, this is a pretty weak substate.</p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978130' first='Hudson' last='Lorensen'] (ADM)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978115' first='Trey' last='Bryte'] (ADM)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978146' first='Hudson' last='Shull'] (ADM)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2721799' first='Derek' last='Doty'] (Grinnell)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2511568' first='Ryan' last='McIlrath'] (Grinnell)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731635' first='Malachi' last='Rice'] (Centerville)<br>2025 Keith Rice (Centerville)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413544' first='Boie' last='Gomo'] (Hoover)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2120763' first='Jack' last='McGuire'] (Pella)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413561' first='Austin' last='Schulte'] (Pella)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2511456' first='Landon' last='Bozarth'] (Newton)<br>2025 Braden Brooks (Boone)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2511498' first='Tyson' last='Shivers'] (Boone)<br>2025 Brock Watson (Clarke)</p>
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<p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p>
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<p>Pella at ADM</p>
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<p>This looks like a pretty straight forward substate - it should end up being #2 vs. #1. The Little Hawkeye versus the Raccoon River, probably the top two 3A conferences in the state. Two of the hottest teams in the state, and a pair of dynamic junior scorers going head-to-head. ADM's scoring is a little easier to trust, and playing at home, the Tigers get the edge. After falling short last season, <strong>ADM</strong> advances to Des Moines for the first time in 13 years.</p>
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