3A Substate Semifinal Preview

Substate 1

Storm Lake (14-8) at Spencer (19-3)

Spencer swept the regular-season meetings between these two teams, winning 55-39 on December 17 and 82-59 on January 28. In the second meeting, the Tigers shot 50% from the floor and an eye-popping 53.6% from behind the arc, knocking down 15 3-pointers en route to the blowout win. They are led by three double-figure scorers in Karter Petzenhauser Karter Petzenhauser 6'4" | SG Spencer | 2022 State IA (19.9, 46.9 3P%), Owen Olson (11.3, 47.8 3P%), and Evan Schmidt Evan Schmidt 6'5" Spencer | 2022 IA (11.2, 36.0 3P%), while Devin Dirkx (9.7, 43.5 3P%) is also a knockdown 3-point shooter. Petzenhauser is one of the best pure scorers in the state, and they can put a ton of shooting around him, which makes them a really difficult team to defend. Storm Lake recently got Luth Dak Luth Dak 6'8" | PF Storm Lake | 2022 State IA (12.3, 8.0 rebounds, 2.0 blocks) back, which really helps the Tornadoes out defensively, He missed each of the first two meetings, and he’ll make an impact with his rim protection and rebounding. They’ll need senior guards Sam Slight Sam Slight 6'5" | SF Storm Lake | 2022 State IA (14.3, 32.8 3P%) and Sam Dvergsten Sam Dvergsten 5'10" | SG Storm Lake | 2022 State IA (11.5, 37.2 3P%) to knock down some shots if they want to keep pace with the high-powered Spencer attack.
Our pick: Spencer

LeMars (13-9) at Humboldt (19-3)

Humboldt got off to a 12-0 start to the season before suffering their first loss against Clear Lake on January 21. The Wildcats have been one of the best offensive teams in 3A, averaging 66.0 points a game, third in the class. Junior guard Will Orness Will Orness 6'1" | SG Humboldt | 2023 State IA (13.7) and senior wing Caden Matson (12.7, 6.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists) lead the team in scoring, and Matson is the team’s top ball-handler. Four other players average between 7.4 and 9.8 points a game, and they do an outstanding job on the glass, pulling down over 38 rebounds a game, including 12 on the offensive end. Caleb Dreckman Caleb Dreckman 6'2" | SG LeMars | 2022 State IA (20.8) is the focal point offensively and defensively for LeMars, the lone player averaging in double-figures, while also leading the team in assists and steals. He’s a capable 3-point shooter, but is at his best when he’s playing downhill and getting to the rim. Konnor Calhoun Konnor Calhoun 6'6" | C LeMars | 2022 State IA (9.2, 6.4 rebounds) is a physical presence in the paint, and they’ll need to get solid production out of him, David Leusink (8.2), and Cal Eckstaine (7.6) to support Dreckman here. LeMars has played the more difficult schedule, but Humboldt gets this one at home. This is a coin-flip.
Our pick: Humboldt

Substate 2

Charles City (13-9) at Decorah (20-1)

Decorah swept the season series between these teams, winning 68-36 on January 4, and 80-58 on February 5. Not much has changed since that last meeting, so there isn’t much reason to expect this game to play out much differently. In that game, the Vikings outrebounded Charles City 36-24, forced 13 turnovers, and had 26 assists on 31 made field goals. The quickness of the Vikings guards proved to be too much, as Treyton McCain Treyton McCain 6'1" | PG Decorah | 2024 State IA (11.7, 4.8 assists), Joseph Bockman Joseph Bockman 5'10" | PG Decorah | 2022 State IA (14.0, 4.2 assists), and Carson Wemark (10.8, 4.0 assists) combined to score 51 points. They’ve also held Charles City’s leading scorer, Chase Low Chase Low 6'3" | PF Charles City | 2023 State IA (17.5), to an average of 9 points in the two meetings. Decorah has been the best, most consistent team in 3A this season, and they should cruise into the substate final without too much resistance.
Our pick: Decorah

Waverly-Shell Rock (14-8) at Clear Lake (16-5)

These teams played a non-conference game earlier in the month, a game dominated by Clear Lake, 73-40. In that game, the Lions shot 55.6% from the floor, knocked down 11 3-pointers, and forced 20 W-SR turnovers. The Go-Hawks have been up-and-down offensively this season, and you can go back to their quarterfinal game against Webster City for the perfect example, scoring 36 points in the first half, and just 13 in the second. Sophomore wing Cole Marsh Cole Marsh 6'6" | SG Waverly-Shell Rock | 2024 State IA (13.5) leads the team in scoring, and Keaton Farmer Keaton Farmer 6'2" | CG Waverly-Shell Rock | 2022 State IA (12.5) is a capable perimeter scoring threat as well. If the Go-Hawks are able to keep it close, they are an excellent free-throw shooting team at 76.5% from the stripe as a team, led by Marsh’s 85.0% and Farmer’s 90.5%. Senior guard Carson Toebe Carson Toebe 6'3" | PG Clear Lake | 2022 State IA (19.5) leads the way for Clear Lake, a highly experienced shotmaker who has played in two state tournaments and tons of big games throughout his career. Freshman forward Thomas Meyer Thomas Meyer 6'4" | PF Clear Lake | 2025 State IA (11.3, 6.3 rebounds) has provided interior scoring, and point guard Travaughn Luyoyba (10.5, 7.3 assists) is the perfect guard to play alongside the shotmaking Toebe. 
Our pick: Clear Lake

Substate 3

Anamosa (13-9) at Wahlert Catholic (15-6)

Athletic do-it-all wing Sam Wilt Sam Wilt 6'2" | SF Anamosa | 2022 State IA (18.2, 10.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.2 steals, 2.3 blocks) is a dynamic two-way player for Anamosa, but the Blue Raiders will be overwhelmed by a deep, long, and athletic Wahlert team here. Anamosa plays in the River Valley Conference against primarily 2A competition, while Wahlert cuts their teeth in the Mississippi Valley against primarily 4A competition. The Golden Eagles are led by junior big man Duke Faley Duke Faley 6'5" | C Wahlert Catholic | 2023 State IA (16.8, 7.4 rebounds), an efficient 6-7 presence who scores at a high clip (60.5 FG%) on the block, but can also stretch out to the arc (38.7 3P%). Ben Freed (15.5) and Carson Cummer (12.8) are quick guards on the perimeter who can penetrate and finish or kick, and junior wing Seamus Crahan (8.9, 3.8 assists) gives them a lot of length and athleticism on the wing. Anamosa may stick around for a bit, and Wilt will provide some highlights, but Wahlert is too much here.
Our pick: Wahlert Catholic

Western Dubuque (9-13) at Assumption (17-5)

Assumption got off to a slow start in their quarterfinal win over Maquoketa before blowing the game open with a 27-2 run to take control and ultimately reach a running clock. The Knights have gone 11-2 since Croatian Ivan Prug (13.7, 6.6 rebounds) joined the lineup, and he has provided another dimension on both ends of the floor to their attack. A mobile 6-9 big who can score inside and out at a high clip (50.0 FG%, 48.0 3P%), Prug is also a long and athletic defender who can protect the rim. Senior guard Noah Mack Noah Mack 6'0" | SG Assumption | 2022 State IA (16.5, 4.7 assists, 46.3 3P%) is a high-level perimeter shooter who has really improved as a playmaker, and JJ Stratman JJ Stratman 6'2" | SG Assumption | 2022 State IA (8.6) and Jay Costello (6.1) are both players who saw significant playing time on last year’s semifinalist. Western Dubuque has a strong trio of guards of their own in Nick Bryant Nick Bryant 5'9" | PG Western Dubuque | 2022 State IA (14.6, 3.5 assists), Carson Schute Carson Schute 6'2" | SG Western Dubuque | 2022 State IA (13.0, 41.0 3P%), and Daviyon Gaston Daviyon Gaston 6'1" | SG Western Dubuque | 2023 State IA (12.3), who can each hurt teams in a variety of ways. But the Bobcats will struggle to defend Prug and Mack. 
Our pick: Assumption

Substate 4

Solon (14-9) at Washington (19-3)

The top-ranked scoring defense in the class travels to one of the most explosive offenses in the class in this one. Solon is allowing just 42.0 points a game and have held 11 straight opponents to 49 points or fewer. They were able to hold the Demons to 41 points in a 41-34 loss a week ago to close out the regular season, limiting them to 32.5% shooting and 5-22 from the arc. That game was tied at 27 after three quarters, with Solon’s deliberate offensive approach and athleticism on the defensive end frustrating the Demons. Can they do it again in this one, or will Washington make some adjustments to get more open looks? Junior guard Ethan Patterson Ethan Patterson 5'11" | SG Washington | 2023 State IA (16.6) and senior Kasen Bailey Kasen Bailey 6'3" | SG Washington | 2022 State IA (15.1) lead a Demons team that averages 63.9 points a game, but they’ve fallen off a bit in the last month, averaging just 56.2 over their last nine games. Solon can struggle to score at times, shooting just 39.9% from the floor as a team, but they have a balanced team with nine players averaging between 3.0 and 9.6 points a game, so anyone can score on a given night. And if they continue to play the smothering defense that they’ve been playing, anything can happen. Free-throw shooting hurt Solon in the first meeting, and it could hurt them again here if it’s a tight game. 
Our pick: Washington

Xavier (11-11) at Central DeWitt (16-6)

This is a fascinating game between a pair of teams that play in leagues against bigger schools. Xavier hasn’t had their full roster in place for a majority of the season, and they’ve had an up-and-down year as a result, but the Saints are healthy now and gelling at the right now. Junior wing Aidan Yamilkoski Aidan Yamilkoski 6'4" | SG Xavier | 2023 State IA (15.0) leads the team in scoring, but the return of sophomore point guard Joseph Bean Joseph Bean 6'3" | PG Kennedy | 2024 State IA (12.0, 2.8 assists) from injury is huge for this group. He’s a strong, physical lead guard who can get others involved, protect the ball, and score from all three levels. Aidan McDermott Aidan McDermott 6'2" | SF Xavier | 2023 IA (5.4) is starting to get his legs under him as well after a long absence and he’ll provide some perimeter scoring. The Saints may struggle to contain Central DeWitt big man Shawn Gilbert Shawn Gilbert 6'7" | PF Central DeWitt | 2022 State IA (22.7, 10.2 rebounds) in the paint. Gilbert is a 6-7/6-8 forward who can score inside and out, and he’s a big body who is tough to move around. Gibson Mcewen Gibson Mcewen 6'1" | SG Central Dewitt | 2022 State IA (13.7, 3.6 assists) and Matthew Watters Matthew Watters 6'2" | SF Central DeWitt | 2023 State IA (8.4, 3.3 assists) have been solid on the perimeter around Gilbert. Look for Xavier to try and attack Gilbert early, because if they can get him into foul trouble, things will open up for the Saints on both ends of the floor. They’ll also look to apply some pressure on the Sabers guards and force them to make tough decisions.
Our pick: Xavier

Substate 5

Mount Pleasant (9-13) at Marion (17-5)

Mount Pleasant has been one of the better defensive teams in the class this season, but they’ll have their hands full with Marion’s junior guard Brayson Laube Brayson Laube 6'2" | PG Marion | 2023 State IA (19.3, 44.4 3P%), an athletic three-level scorer who can take over games at any point in time. Fellow junior Alex Mota Alex Mota 6'1" | SG Marion | 2023 State IA (9.1), an Iowa football commit, gives the Wolves even more athleticism on the perimeter, and they can really harass opposing ball-handlers. The Panthers counter with senior forward Dewon Trent Dewon Trent 6'3" | SG Mount Pleasant | 2022 State IA (13.8) and sophomore guard Payton Hagans Payton Hagans 6'0" | SG Mount Pleasant | 2024 State IA (12.2). If Mount Pleasant can keep this one in the high-40s or low-50s, they’ll have a chance, but they will struggle to score with Marion if it gets much higher scoring than that. 
Our pick: Marion

Clear Creek-Amana (15-7) at Fort Madison (18-4)

Fort Madison was the last remaining undefeated team in 3A, getting off to a 15-0 start before dropping four straight games as they dealt with illnesses going through the program. They’ve re-gained their footing a bit, winning three straight heading into this semifinal, although they struggled to get it going in the quarterfinals, tied with Oskaloosa after three quarters before exploding for 27 fourth quarter points in a 10-point win. The Bloodhounds are led by senior forward Dayton Davis Dayton Davis 6'4" | SF Fort Madison | 2022 State IA (20.5, 12.2 rebounds, 4.4 steals), a big, physical presence in the paint who pounds the offensive glass hard (6.4 a game). Senior guard Miles Dear Miles Dear 5'10" | PG Fort Madison | 2022 State IA (17.1, 4.1 assists) has provided plenty of scoring and decision-making on the perimeter, and Reiburn Turnbull (9.1) gives them some more scoring punch. The Clippers are led by the dynamic shooting tandem of seniors Ben Swails Ben Swails 6'2" | SF Clear Creek Amana | 2022 State IA (17.7, 43.6 3P%) and Kyle Schrepfer Kyle Schrepfer 6'0" | SG Clear Creek Amana | 2022 State IA (13.9, 38.3 3P%), while Grant Kruse (9.9, 37.5 3P%) and Harrison Rosenberg (7.5, 61.5 FG%) have given them excellent production on both ends of the floor. The ’Hounds have struggled to fully get things rolling again after that late-season swoon, and CCA has the weapons to burn them from deep. If the Clippers can contain Davis on the glass, they can pull off this upset.
Our pick: Clear Creek-Amana

Substate 6

Nevada (17-5) at Dallas Center-Grimes (17-5)

Dallas Center-Grimes has been considered one of the top-5 teams in 3A for a majority of the season, using their balanced offense and athleticism on the defensive end to roll to a 17-5 record against one of the most difficult schedules in the class. The Mustangs are led by a fantastic trio of senior guards - Cole Glasgow Cole Glasgow 6'2" | SG Dallas Center- Grimes | 2022 State IA (14.8), Jacob Runyan Jacob Runyan 5'9" | PG Dallas Center-Grimes | 2022 State IA (11.3, 5.2 assists), and Bo Huston Bo Huston 5'10" | SG Dallas Center-Grimes | 2022 State IA (10.2, 39.2 3P%). Glasgow, an athletic, slashing guard, is headed to play his college ball at Kansas City. Runyan is an excellent shooter and distributor who limits turnovers, and Huston is a high-level shooter off the ball. Jackson Jones Jackson Jones 6'3" | SG Dallas Center Grimes | 2022 IA (8.9, 39.4 3P%) provides some size, shooting, and defense on the wing, and they have a number of solid role players who understand their roles and play them well. Nevada has put together an impressive season, racking up 17 wins, but their schedule is significantly weaker than what DCG has faced. James Edwards (13.2), Ty Dittmer (10.6), and Jacob Khounsourath (10.3) are the team’s top scorers, but they have three other players averaging between 7.5 and 9.6 points a game. The Cubs have won a lot of games, but the level of athleticism, difference in schedules, and overall talent of DCG will be too much for the Cubs to overcome.
Our pick: Dallas Center-Grimes

Newton (12-10) vs. Ballard (16-6) (at Dallas Center-Grimes)

Senior guard Ashton Hermann Ashton Hermann 6'4" | SG Ballard | 2022 State IA (27.4) is one of the best pure scorers in the state, and figures to be a difficult matchup for a Newton team that has some players with the quickness, but not the size, to defend him, and some with the size, but not the quickness. Hermann is a dynamic player who is a threat to go off for 40 on any given night with his ability to get to the rim and turn defense into offense. Senior big man Kale Krogh Kale Krogh 6'6" | C Ballard | 2022 State IA (10.9, 9.6 rebounds, 2.2 blocks) will also be a formidable task for the Cardinals to handle, a future Iowa offensive lineman with great hands and feet. Newton has won their games on the defensive end this year, allowing just 49.7 points a game, good for 10th in the class. The Cardinals have a balanced quartet of scorers in Adam Mattes Adam Mattes 6'3" | SG Newton | 2022 State IA (10.8), Brody Bauer Brody Bauer 6'2" | SG Newton | 2023 State IA (9.5), Jake Ingle Jake Ingle 5'7" | PG Newton | 2023 State IA (9.3), and Cole Plowman (8.0), and Bauer and Ingle are both good shooters who could get hot and carry this team to an upset here. But they’ll likely struggle against the size and physicality of Krogh on the glass, and the quickness and talent of Hermann on the perimeter.
Our pick: Ballard

Substate 7

North Polk (12-10) at Winterset (17-5)

These teams split their regular-season meetings, with North Polk winning 60-43 on December 21 and Winterset taking the rematch 59-53 on February 1. In North Polk’s win, the Comets were able to jump out to a 31-11 halftime lead and force a usual strong Huskies backcourt into 23 turnovers. In the rematch, Winterset trimmed that number down to 12 giveaways and held a 13-point lead after three before things got a little tight late. Senior wing Jevin Sullivan Jevin Sullivan 6'5" | SG North Polk | 2022 State IA (17.7, 8.0 rebounds) leads the Comets, a long, athletic, and physical power wing who is headed to play his college ball with Glasgow at Kansas City. He has the ability to take over games at any point in time. Winterset is led by a trio of guards that may be the best in the class in Levi Gurwell Levi Gurwell 5'8" | SG Winterset | 2022 State IA (17.2, 3.0 assists), Dawson Forgy Dawson Forgy 5'11" | PG Winterset | 2022 State IA (11.3, 3.7 assists), and Brayden Dinkla Brayden Dinkla 6'0" | PG Winterset | 2023 State IA (9.5, 6.6 assists). If the Huskies are able to take care of the ball at anything near their season average (11.5 turnovers), they should have enough to win this one at home and advance to the substate final.
Our pick: Winterset

Bondurant-Farrar (15-7) at Pella (16-6)

These teams haven’t met since 2016, but they are very familiar with each other, routinely playing against each other in summer leagues and tournaments. Those games have typically been tightly contested and won by Pella. We’ll see if that trend continues. These are two of the top nine offensive teams in 3A (Pella 4th at 65.7, Bondurant-Farrar 9th at 64.7), so expect to see an up-tempo tilt. The defending 3A champion Dutch have had a rougher year than expected with all they brought back from that team, but have won four straight and may be putting things together now. Seniors Karl Miller Karl Miller 6'4" | SF Pella | 2022 State IA (15.9, 39.9 3P%), Noah Allen Noah Allen 5'11" | PG Pella | 2022 State IA (14.1, 39.6 3P%), and Parker Elder Parker Elder 6'4" | SF Pella | 2022 State IA (9.2, 4.2 assists) were all key contributors on that championship team (Miller and Elder were starters), and that experience could be key in this huge game. The Bluejays are headlined by a pair of big junior wings in Colby Collison Colby Collison 6'4" | SF Bondurant-Farrar | 2023 State IA (18.5, 54.2 FG%) and Jaxson Fried Jaxson Fried 6'6" | SF Bondurant- Farrar | 2023 State IA (13.4, 52.0 FG%). Collison is a 6-3, physical wing who can take over games with his ability to score from all three levels, while Fried is 6-6, long, and efficient, picking and choosing his spots to attack. This should be the best game of the 16 on Thursday night, and in the end, experience may be the difference. 
Our pick: Pella

Substate 8

Denison-Schleswig (14-9) at Harlan (16-6)

These teams split their regular season meetings, with Harlan winning 62-44 back on December 10, and Denison-Schleswig taking the rematch 63-59 on January 25. In that win on January 25, the Monarchs were able to hold Harlan to just 38.3% shooting, including 3-19 (15.8%) from behind the arc. They’ll need to play similar defense in this one to advance to the substate final. Junior Carson Seuntjens Carson Seuntjens 6'1" | PG Denison-Schleswig | 2023 State IA (13.9) and sophomore Luke Wiebers Luke Wiebers 6'1" | SG Denison-Schleswig | 2024 State IA (10.5) are the catalysts of the Monarchs offensively, a pair of solid guards who can score from all three levels. Lance Arkfeld (8.6) is a solid interior presence, and the team can comfortably go eight deep. Harlan got off to an 11-0 start to the season before stumbling to a 4-6 finish in the regular season. They have a quartet of double-figure scorers that can make them difficult to defend in juniors Jacob Birch Jacob Birch 6'1" | SF Harlan | 2023 State IA (15.4, 6.4 rebounds), Bradley Curren Bradley Curren 5'11" | PG Harlan | 2023 State IA (13.3, 4.0 assists), and Aidan Hall (11.5, 8.1 rebounds), along with senior Connor Frame Connor Frame 6'2" | SF Harlan | 2022 State IA (11.2). Like most Harlan teams, this year’s iteration is physical and athletic, and they have a number of ways they can beat you. Playing at home in the postseason is always an edge.
Our pick: Harlan

Carroll (14-8) at Heelan (13-9)

After getting off to a bit of a slow start to the year, Carroll has been playing good ball down the stretch, winning six straight games heading into this semifinal. The Tigers are led by a fantastic guard tandem in seniors Kaleb Booth Kaleb Booth 6'1" | SG Carroll | 2022 State IA (19.9, 4.9 assists) and Nick Macke Nick Macke 5'10" | SG Carroll | 2022 State IA (10.7). Booth is one of the best shot creators in the class, an excellent ball-handler who can fill it up from all three levels, and Macke is a nice complement to him as an off-ball guard who moves well and shoots it at a high clip. The Tigers are undersized but quick and Booth will be the most dynamic player on the floor in this one. They may struggle to matchup with Heelan sophomore wing Matthew Noll Matthew Noll 6'7" | PF Bishop Heelan | 2024 State IA (13.9, 7.7 rebounds), a 6-6 athlete who can score inside and out and control the glass. Heelan should have an edge in the paint with Noll and senior forward Nick Miller (11.1, 7.9 rebounds). Heelan will struggle to contain Carroll’s guards, Carroll will struggle to keep Heelan off the glass. Whichever team does a better job on the other will win.
Our pick: Carroll