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<p><strong>The favorite: </strong>Top-ranked <strong>Cedar Falls </strong>has only had three games decided by single digits this season. In fact, they've won more nearly three times as many (eight) games by 30+ points as they've had decided by single digits. The Tigers have been absolutely dominant on both ends of the floor, ranking 4th in 4A in both scoring offense (70.1) and defense (44.2). Senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1765553' first='William' last='Gerdes'] (20.6, 2.2 blocks, 74.9 FG%) is one of the most efficient, dominant two-way big men in the state. He has great footwork, soft touch, can step out and space the floor, and is a gifted passer out of the post and high post. Senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1777914' first='Jaydon' last='Kimbrough'] (19.6) is one of the most impressive shotmakers in the state, highly skilled and armed with a silky smooth stroke from anywhere on the floor. [player_tooltip player_id='1765549' first='Leyton' last='Wolf'] (8.8, 6.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.3 blocks) has been playing the best ball of his high school career, using his 6-8 frame to provide some real versatility on both ends of the floor, and the backcourt of [player_tooltip player_id='1765505' first='Parker' last='Berns'] (7.8) and [player_tooltip player_id='2446123' first='Carsen' last='Gary'] (6.2) gives them some more playmaking and shot creation. The Tigers can comfortably go eight or nine deep, and have far-and-away the best one-two punch in the substate with Gerdes and Kimbrough.</p>
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<p><strong>The biggest threat: Linn-Mar</strong> was swept by Cedar Falls in the regular season, losing by four on December 8 and 14 on January 16, so while the Lions haven't gotten the win, they've shown themselves that they can play with the Tigers. They've stumbled a bit down the stretch, losing five of their last eight games, but in senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='2204894' first='Tyler' last='Hilton'] (18.3, 10.5 rebounds), they have a dominant interior player who can control the glass and the painted area. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2114707' first='Karson' last='Rains'] (12.9) is a talented playmaker and scorer, and [player_tooltip player_id='2617475' first='Blake' last='Ritze'] (11.0, 2.1 blocks) is a bouncy, long big man who can protect the paint. [player_tooltip player_id='3255115' first='Max' last='Robertson'] (7.9, 6.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists) is the glue guy for this group, the coach's son who does a little bit of everything on both ends of the floor. Is Linn-Mar a better team than Cedar Falls? Of course not, but anything can happen in a one-game setting, and the talent is there.</p>
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<p><strong>The dark horse: Davenport North</strong> has gone 9-3 in their last 12 games, a stretch that includes good wins over Muscatine and Central DeWitt. An athletic team that can apply pressure to teams on both ends of the floor with their length and speed, they're led by sophomore [player_tooltip player_id='2595605' first='MarQwan' last='Morgan'] (18.6), the top-ranked player in the sophomore class in the state. He's capable of having some explosive scoring games and can take over any game. [player_tooltip player_id='2731773' first='Johnale' last='Johnson Jr'] (9.8), [player_tooltip player_id='2886884' first='David' last='Joiner'] (7.5), Jimmy Carter (7.4), and [player_tooltip player_id='2595698' first='Marcus' last='Morgan Jr'] (6.7) are all capable of scoring 15 on any given night alongside Morgan, and each is capable of creating their own shot off the dribble. </p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765553' first='William' last='Gerdes'] (Cedar Falls)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1777914' first='Jaydon' last='Kimbrough'] (Cedar Falls)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765549' first='Leyton' last='Wolf'] (Cedar Falls)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765505' first='Parker' last='Berns'] (Cedar Falls)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2446123' first='Carsen' last='Gary'] (Cedar Falls)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2204894' first='Tyler' last='Hilton'] (Linn-Mar)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2114707' first='Karson' last='Rains'] (Linn-Mar)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2617475' first='Blake' last='Ritze'] (Linn-Mar)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2595605' first='MarQwan' last='Morgan'] (Davenport North)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413554' first='Kyle' last='Smith'] (Marshalltown)<br>2026 Jacob Hayes (Marshalltown)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2381208' first='Drake' last='Gersema'] (Marshalltown)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731768' first='Christopher' last='Watkins'] (City)</p>
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<p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p>
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<p>Linn-Mar at Cedar Falls</p>
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<p>The Lions know that they can play with the Tigers, but can they get over the hump and shock Cedar Falls? I don't see it happening, but crazier things have happened. Behind big games from Gerdes and Kimbrough, <strong>Cedar Falls</strong> cruises back to the state tournament, where they'll be the #1 seed.</p>
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