Is it Red-Hot Johnston or Charlie King-Led Roosevelt in 4A-7?

<!-- wp:image {"id":3515095,"sizeSlug":"large","linkDestination":"media"} --> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/02/Screen-Shot-2026-02-22-at-9.09.19-PM.png"><img src="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/02/Screen-Shot-2026-02-22-at-9.09.19-PM.png?w=609" alt="" class="wp-image-3515095" /></a></figure> <!-- /wp:image --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The favorite: </strong>Despite being the #2 seed in the substate, <strong>Johnston</strong> should be considered the favorite here. Since getting standout guard [player_tooltip player_id='1765517' first='Tino' last='Daye Jr'] (11.8, 4.2 assists) back from injury, the Dragons have been fantastic. They're 10-3 since he returned, with their losses coming to Waukee, Waukee Northwest, and Dowling Catholic. In Daye's absence, junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2419846' first='Nicare' last='Cavil'] (16.5, 3.5 assists) stepped up and thrived as the team's lead ball-handler, and now that Daye is back, they have a dynamic one-two punch of playmakers who can control the game with the ball in their hands. [player_tooltip player_id='2116043' first='Joshua' last='Jenkins'] (11.5, 42.5 3P%) is a long, athletic wing who impacts the game on the defensive end, as do Caleb Gbarjolo (6.9), [player_tooltip player_id='2148648' first='Emri' last='Jones'] (6.9), and [player_tooltip player_id='2419751' first='Darren' last='Grandon'] (4.5). The Dragons are outstanding on the defensive end of the floor, with a number of great on-ball defenders and a lot of length and athleticism around them. Playing in the CIML has prepared them well for postseason play, and they won't be scared to go on the road to Roosevelt for the substate final.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The biggest threat: Roosevelt </strong>has had a really good year, and no doubt earned the top seed in this substate. The Roughriders went 16-5 in the regular season, but the fact of the matter is that the schedule that they played in the Iowa Alliance is nowhere near what Johnston has faced in the CIML on a nightly basis. The Roughriders beat up on the likes of Ottumwa, Des Moines North, and Des Moines Lincoln, and lost to each of the top five teams that they played. Junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='2204081' first='Charlie' last='King'] (20.8, 9.2 rebounds, 51.9 FG%) is a fantastic scorer, one of the best three-level scoring threats in 4A. He's a long, intelligent wing who can create his own shot and knock down shots in bunches off the catch. [player_tooltip player_id='2136936' first='Chance' last='Burkett'] (11.9, 3.3 assists), a Waukee transfer, has given them a quick, athletic ball-handler in the backcourt alongside sophomore [player_tooltip player_id='2772350' first='Frank' last='Lee IV'] (11.7), while [player_tooltip player_id='2754693' first='D'Mir' last='Coleman'] (10.1, 7.2 rebounds) has given them some size and length in the paint. This team is certainly capable of beating anyone in the substate and it wouldn't surprise anyone if King carries this group on a run.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The dark horse:</strong> A young, fairly inexperienced <strong>Dallas Center-Grimes</strong> team has really improved in the last month of the season, posting high-quality wins over Clear Lake, Council Bluffs Lincoln, Pella Christian, and Pella. Sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='2772348' first='Chase' last='Perrin'] (17.4, 50.9 3P%) is one of the state's elite shooting threats, capable of knocking down 8 3s in a game, while senior forward Luke Lorenzen (11.2, 9.6 rebounds, 2.4 blocks) is a 6-11 big man who can protect the paint and finish around the bucket. [player_tooltip player_id='2754666' first='Brody' last='Burke'] (6.9), [player_tooltip player_id='2479872' first='Hudson' last='Heidgerken'] (6.9), and [player_tooltip player_id='2478691' first='Brody' last='Logan'] (5.8) are also solid scorers who can score 10+ on any given night and provide some more punch. The Mustangs are playing well and have the shooting and size to give the Dragons some issues in the semifinals.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419846' first='Nicare' last='Cavil'] (Johnston)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765517' first='Tino' last='Daye Jr'] (Johnston)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2116043' first='Joshua' last='Jenkins'] (Johnston)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2204081' first='Charlie' last='King'] (Roosevelt)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2136936' first='Chance' last='Burkett'] (Roosevelt)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2772350' first='Frank' last='Lee IV'] (Roosevelt)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2754693' first='D'Mir' last='Coleman'] (Roosevelt)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2772348' first='Chase' last='Perrin'] (Dallas Center-Grimes)<br>2026 Luke Lorenzen (Dallas Center-Grimes)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2617518' first='Jayvion' last='Hanson'] (Des Moines East)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2615603' first='Samson' last='Amenu'] (Des Moines East)</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph {"fontSize":"medium"} --> <p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Johnston at Roosevelt</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Going on the road and winning in what is sure to be a raucous environment at Roosevelt will certainly be tough, but Johnston is a team that is built to defend the Roughriders with all of their dynamic perimeter defenders. They should be able to, at least somewhat, limit King's effectiveness and scrape together enough offense to pull out the win in a tight, low-scoring game. <strong>Johnston</strong> advances to the state tournament, where they'll be a #7 or #8 seed that none of the higher seeded teams will want to see.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph -->