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<p><strong>The favorite: </strong>The top seed in the substate is <strong>Dubuque Senior</strong>, one of the elite defensive teams in the state, allowing just 44.2 points per game, third in 4A. The Rams have held seven teams to 36 points or fewer this season, and their two losses to 19-2 Ames and 20-0 Cedar Falls each came by three points. Senior combo forward [player_tooltip player_id='1172887' first='Tevin' last='Schultz'] (25.6, 64.5 FG%, 40.0 3P%), the school's all-time leading scorer, is one of the most dominant scorers in the state. He's a big, athletic, physical, and graceful 6-7 forward who can score from anywhere on the floor. Senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1765555' first='Drake' last='Medinger'] (14.7, 41.8 3P%0 is an athletic three-level scorer, and [player_tooltip player_id='1765536' first='Cooper' last='Porter'] (12.4, 5.4 assists, 45.1 3P%) has been one of the best shooters in the state this season. The Rams have those three as their primary scorers, and then have some really good role players around them who understand their roles and play them well. This is a deep, athletic team filled with players who can impact the game on the defensive end.</p>
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<p><strong>The biggest threat: </strong>A senior-heavy <strong>Muscatine</strong> team is the #2 seed in the substate and is as capable as anyone of winning this bracket. Senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1517427' first='Talan' last='Becker'] (17.0, 39.7 3P%), who missed a majority of last season with an injury, has been fantastic this season, scoring from all three levels at an efficient clip and using his long 6-4 frame to impact the game on both ends. [player_tooltip player_id='1574870' first='Spencer' last='Biah'] (12.7, 57.4 FG%) is a tenacious on-ball defender with great hands, and [player_tooltip player_id='3230922' first='Adrian' last='Gonpue'] (10.4, 72.2 FG%) is a great athlete in the paint who finishes efficiently and can defend multiple positions. Junior combo forward [player_tooltip player_id='2419783' first='Sam' last='Church'] (7.6) hasn't been as productive as he was last season, but is still a talented player who can score inside and out, and [player_tooltip player_id='3230932' first='Gaige' last='Curtis'] (4.7, 46.7 3P%) has provided some real shooting from the 3-point line alongside Becker. The Muskies are experienced and can beat anyone. Their four losses this year have come by a combined 11 points, so they're really close to being undefeated.</p>
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<p><strong>The dark horse:</strong> A young but talented <strong>Kennedy</strong> team has lost just once since January 20, entering postseason play on a 10-1 run. During that stretch, the Cougars have good wins over Xavier, Linn-Mar, and Iowa City West. They start two freshmen, and play a third significant minutes, so the rest of the state should take notice of what's going on in Cedar Rapids. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2164515' first='Jaxson' last='Bean'] (12.5, 5.4 assists) leads the team in scoring and assists. Freshmen [player_tooltip player_id='2918369' first='Kaden' last='Gomez'] (10.4, 45.5 3P%) and Drew McKowen (8.2, 40.7 3P%) are both really good shooting threats, and McKowen has impressed as a playmaker. He's a strong, athletic guard who can play downhill and attack the bucket. Senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1978105' first='Justin' last='Powell'] (9.7, 41.2 3P%) is another potent shooting threat, and as a team, the Cougars are shooting 37.4% from the 3-point line. With their ability to throw a ton of different defensive looks at you, they can frustrate teams, and they clearly have a number of quality shooting threats. Sometimes youth can be an advantage in settings like these.</p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch</span><br>2026 Tevin Schulz (Senior)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765555' first='Drake' last='Medinger'] (Senior)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765536' first='Cooper' last='Porter'] (Senior)<span style="text-decoration: underline"><br></span>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1517427' first='Talan' last='Becker'] (Muscatine)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1574870' first='Spencer' last='Biah'] (Muscatine)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3230922' first='Adrian' last='Gonpue'] (Muscatine)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2164515' first='Jaxson' last='Bean'] (Kennedy)<br>2029 [player_tooltip player_id='2918369' first='Kaden' last='Gomez'] (Kennedy)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978105' first='Justin' last='Powell'] (Kennedy)<br>2029 Drew McKowen (Kennedy)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2754686' first='Cayson' last='Neely'] (Pleasant Valley)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2887793' first='Gavin' last='Kettmann'] (Pleasant Valley)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2523925' first='Trae' last='Fields'] (Cedar Rapids Washington)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2906423' first='Jayden' last='Faulkner'] (Cedar Rapids Jefferson)</p>
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<p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p>
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<p>Muscatine at Senior</p>
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<p>Kennedy has a real chance to upset Muscatine, but I'll take the Muskies, who have been really good all year, to reach the substate final and book a trip to Dubuque. Senior has been fantastic this season, a few buckets away from being undefeated and probably the top-ranked team in the state. [player_tooltip player_id='1172887' first='Tevin' last='Schultz'] won't be denied, and Dubuque Senior punches their ticket back to the state tournament for the third year in a row.</p>
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