ADM is an Overwhelming Favorite in 3A-6

<!-- wp:image {"id":3506648,"sizeSlug":"large","linkDestination":"media"} --> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/02/Screen-Shot-2026-02-18-at-1.54.56-PM.png"><img src="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/02/Screen-Shot-2026-02-18-at-1.54.56-PM.png?w=615" alt="" class="wp-image-3506648" /></a></figure> <!-- /wp:image --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The favorite: </strong>Since a January 20 loss to Carroll, <strong>ADM</strong> has been blitzing tams. They enter the postseason on an eight-game winning streak, winning games by an average of 26 points per game. The Tigers entered the year with high expectations, and that loss may have re-focused them coming down the stretch. The trio of senior guards - [player_tooltip player_id='1978130' first='Hudson' last='Lorensen'] (22.4, 52.5 FG%, 46.3 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1978115' first='Trey' last='Bryte'] (15.2, 9.2 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 55.9 FG%, 44.2 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='1978146' first='Hudson' last='Shull'] (11.1, 47.5 3P%) - are as good as they come. Lorensen is one of the state's elite scorers, a truly dominant lefty guard with a tremendous feel for the game. He's hyper efficient, with 53-46-95 shooting splits. Bryte is a nightly triple-double threat who uses his 6-5 frame to control games from the point guard spot, and Shull is an absolute sniper off the catch. That trio is the best trio in 3A. They get quality production out of a number of other role players - [player_tooltip player_id='2520020' first='Hayden' last='Dohlman'] (5.1), [player_tooltip player_id='2772351' first='Walker' last='Holmberg'] (4.7), and Carson Oberhoffer (3.9), to name a few. The Tigers never turn it over (8.4 a game) and they have two of the most free-throw shooters in the state to help ice away games late, if they're close, in Lorensen (95.0%) and Shull (93.3%). It would be a pretty substantial upset if anyone beats the Tigers, and a surprise if anyone really tests them in this substate.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The biggest threat:</strong> Nevada (19th at BC Moore) and Mount Vernon (25th) at the 2nd and 3rd seeds in this substate, the lowest ranked 2nd and 3rd seeds in any substate. <strong>Nevada</strong> has the best scoring defense in 3A, allowing just 38.5 points per game, but the Cubs have played a schedule that ranks 60th out of 64 3A teams. They're led by senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1765535' first='John' last='Nelson'] (16.8, 7.7 rebounds, 2.1 blocks), a four-year varsity contributor who has the length and athleticism to cause some problems on both ends of the floor. He's a bouncy forward who is the lynchpin of the Cubs defense. Drake Hinson (9.1, 7.9 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.7 blocks) is another really athletic piece on the perimeter who can defend multiple positions. Nelson's younger brother, freshman George Nelson (12.0), has been a strong second scorer for the Cubs, and he and Gavin Egeland (9.2) will need to step up and take some of the pressure off of the elder Nelson as postseason play progresses.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Mount Vernon</strong> is another strong defensive team, 8th in 3A at 49.6 points per game, and is a group that is comfortable playing at a slower pace. Senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='2413532' first='Kellen' last='Haverback'] (19.7) is their big scorer. He's a long wing who can get to the rim off the dribble or with off-ball movement. Three others average around nine points per game in [player_tooltip player_id='2906497' first='Seth' last='Rushford'] (9.3), [player_tooltip player_id='3344388' first='Maddox' last='Thede'] (9.1), and [player_tooltip player_id='2906500' first='Luke' last='Rushford'] (9.0). The question for Mount Vernon is how well has the WaMaC prepared them for postseason play. The league is down as a whole, especially when compared to the Little Hawkeye and Raccoon River, and that could become a factor as early as their quarterfinal meeting with Bondurant-Farrar.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The dark horse: </strong>Speaking of <strong>Bondurant-Farrar</strong>, if you're looking for a sleeper team to make a run, check them out. The 6th-seeded Bluejays have played the toughest schedule in 3A, according to BC Moore - having to play Ballard, ADM, and Carroll twice each will do that to you. The Jays showed what they can be capable of with a nice win over Gilbert a few weeks ago, and having gone through an absolute gauntlet throughout the regular season, they aren't going to be intimidated by anything that Mount Vernon throws at them. Junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='2617495' first='Drake' last='Pfaltzgraff'] (16.5, 11.3 rebounds, 52.4 FG%) is a dominant interior scorer and rebounder who can control the painted area on both ends of the floor, and junior guard Owen Werner (12.0) has been a solid piece in the backcourt. Don't be shocked to see Bondy make a run to the substate final.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978130' first='Hudson' last='Lorensen'] (ADM)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978115' first='Trey' last='Bryte'] (ADM)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978146' first='Hudson' last='Shull'] (ADM)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765535' first='John' last='Nelson'] (Nevada)<br>2029 George Nelson (Nevada)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413532' first='Kellen' last='Haverback'] (Mount Vernon)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2906415' first='Beckett' last='Boeset'] (Clear Creek Amana)<br>2028 Carson Meskimen (Clear Creek Amana)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='3344391' first='Myles' last='Howell'] (Clear Creek Amana)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2617495' first='Drake' last='Pfaltzgraff'] (Bondurant-Farrar)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731750' first='Eli' last='Patterson'] (Benton)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2906425' first='Isaac' last='Fandeh'] (Hoover)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2772138' first='Ryan' last='Diehl'] (Clarke)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2772063' first='Peyton' last='Lynn'] (Clarke)</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph {"fontSize":"medium"} --> <p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Bondurant-Farrar at ADM</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>We'll go with the surprise here and take the Bluejays to upset both Mount Vernon and Nevada to reach the substate final, but that's where the magic ends. <strong>ADM</strong> is on another level from any of the other teams in this substate and shouldn't have too many issues cruising into a state tournament appearance, where they'll be one of the co-favorites to win the title.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph -->