2017-18 Season Preview: 1st Region
October 15th is a holiday in the Commonwealth of Kentucky. High school basketball season is officially underway in the Bluegrass state. The excitement that comes with a new season will soon be replaced by the grind of the season but every school in the state starts the season with the same goal. Everyone wants to get to Rupp Arena in March. In our season preview series, we break down the favorites to make it to the KHSAA state tournament out of each region. Our previews begin in the first region, where Graves County will try to fill a D1 sized hole in its starting lineup and fight off challenges from Mayfield, Paducah Tilghman and others.
The Favorite: Mayfield (23-11 last season, graduated 3 seniors)
Best Case Scenario: Returning 3 of their top 4 scorers from the regional runner-up team motivates the Cardinals to steamroll the rest of the region. The Guthrie twins increase their scoring averages to over 20 points per game and other than a couple of losses on the road, Mayfield dominates the region and goes to Rupp Arena to represent the first.
Worst Case Scenario: After falling to Graves County all 4 times they met last season, they still can’t beat Graves. They drop the district title game and are knocked out in the first round of the regional by a district champ.
Paducah Tilghman’s JJ ReedContender: Paducah Tilghman (20-11 last season, graduated one senior)
Best Case Scenario: JJ Reed, Rodriguez Thomas and Trey Workman form the best trio in the region. Tilghman avenges their regional loss to Mayfield last season and cut the nets down on the way to Rupp.
Worst Case Scenario: The Tornado team that only went 13-7 in the region last season continues to struggle against regional foes, culminating in another regional tournament loss on the Murray State floor. Reed and Workman graduate and leave Thomas to start rebuilding.
Defending Champion: Graves County (27-8 last season, graduated 5 seniors)
Best Case Scenario: When Chris Vogt missed a large chunk of last season, the young Eagles learned how to win without him. Juniors Ryan Mathis and Jordyn Naranjo combine to make up the 17 points per game that graduated when Vogt left and Graves continues their dominance over Mayfield. They defend their title and go back to Rupp Arena.
Worst Case Scenario: A team composed of mainly sophomores and juniors stumbles in the regional tournament and doesn’t even get back to the championship game at Murray State. Their talented junior class starts to look ahead to another year of clashing with Mayfield for the district and regional crowns.
Contender: McCracken County (25-9 last season, graduated 3 seniors)
Best Case Scenario: The 5 man senior class leads a balanced scoring attack and McCracken uses depth to overwhelm their regional foes and make their first return trip to Rupp Arena since the school’s inaugural season.
Worst Case Scenario: The Mustangs cannot replace the three of their top four leading scorers who graduated in May. They especially miss the physical presence of Tyce Daniel. Their 7 man junior class underwhelms and Senior Cameron Cartwright cannot increase his production. They lose the district title game to Tilghman and go out with a whimper in the regional.
Darkhorse: Marshall County (21-11 last season, graduated 2 seniors)
Best Case Scenario: Seniors Aaron Reed and Dylan Walters combine to be the highest scoring duo in the region. The Marshall’s 7 man sophomore class provides Coach Birdsong with the depth he needs to make a run to the regional title game. They upset one of the favorites and Coach Birdsong takes his team to Rupp Arena, where he has gone with Calloway County and Graves County previously.
Worst Case Scenario: Only going 10-6 in the region a season ago, the Marshalls struggle in regional games once again. The limp to a double digit loss season and fall to Calloway County in the district title game for a second consecutive season and lose in the first round of the region to one of the teams mentioned above.