Iowa Playoffs: Class 3A State Tournament Preview
No. 1 seed: Chariton (23-1)
About Chariton: The Chargers’ trio of stars have carried them to a 23-1 record. Daric Laing (22.5 points per game), T.J. Hockenson (19.9, 10.5 rebounds) and Lim Chuol (10.9, 11.5). They’re capable of putting up points on anyone, and the duo of Hockenson and Chuol can dominate the glass. Their schedule ranks 58th out of 64 in Class 3A, which is cause for some concern.
Why they can win it all: Perhaps no other team in the field has the trio of star power that Chariton does, and they’re capable of controlling the glass against just about anyone.
Chances they win it all: 10%. Despite being the top-seeded team here, the Chargers’ poor regular season schedule will hurt them here. They’ve got some talent, but their lack of depth will be a detriment.
No. 2 seed: Pella (22-1)
About Pella: The highest scoring team in 3A, the Dutch have only lost to 4A power West Des Moines Valley in a game in which the Tigers hit 11 3-pointers. Pella’s up-tempo attack goes deeper than any other team in the field, and their attacking style of defense will cause problems for teams that don’t take good care of the ball. Led by Ryan Van Wyk (14.3 points, 67.0 FG%) and Will Warner (13.5 points), the Dutch have a very good inside-out attack with a number of scoring options.
Why they can win it all: The depth and scoring power of this group will present problems for teams that can’t keep up with their tempo. They’re a good defensive team, have lots of athleticism and can beat you in a number of ways.
Chances they win it all: 15%. The Dutch should get through their first round game against Perry, a team they match up well with. A semi-final date with either Spirit Lake or Xavier could present some issues with those teams’ respective stars.
No. 3 seed: Spirit Lake (21-3)
About Spirit Lake: Behind their pair of Division I players, the Indians have put together the most efficient offensive attack in the glass (56.0 FG%). Ryan Kriener (Iowa) is averaging 22.5 points and 12 rebounds a game while shooting 69.1% from the floor, and Billy Brown (North Dakota) is averaging 22.1 points and 5.7 assists. The dynamic inside-out combination is tough for opposing teams to slow down.
Why they can win it all: Star power. The Indians are the only team in the field with a pair of Division I players, and that duo can carry them to a title.
Chances they win it all: 15%. Throughout the regular season, Kriener and Brown have been the best players on the floor. And while that will almost certainly still be the case, the competition will be better, the gameplans will be better and opposing teams’ depth and role players will be better. The duo is good enough to win the title, but they’ll need a few role players to make contributions.
No. 4 seed: MOC-Floyd Valley (21-3)
About MOC-Floyd Valley: If you like 3-pointers, this is the team for you. Led by Levi Jansen (17.3 points) and Christian Korver (14.8), the Dutchmen toss up 21 3-point attempts a game, hitting 40.8% of their attempts. They’re a balanced group that has gotten very good production out of their role players, with six players averaging between 4.0 and 9.9 points per game.
Why they can win it all: Jansen is one of the best individual scoring threats in the tournament, with the ability to take over any given game. With the way this group shoots the ball from deep, they’re capable of knocking off any team in the field if they get going.
Chances they win it all: 12.5%. Their odds would be higher were they not playing Wahlert in the first round. If they’re able to get through that game, however, they would be favored to make it to the title game.
No. 5 seed: Dubuque Wahlert (19-5)
About Dubuque Wahlert: The two-time defending champions enter the tournament on a six-game winning streak behind the dominant play of Iowa signee Cordell Pemsl. The power forward is averaging 21.8 points and 10.2 rebounds a game, shooting 64.3% from the floor. He’s joined by a pair of veterans who saw substantial time on last year’s team, David Wedewer (11.8) and Riley Till (9.7). Playing in the always tough MVC gives the Golden Eagles an advantage come tournament time, and teams will struggle to not only keep Pemsl down, but also with their length on the defensive end.
Why they can win it all: This team has a championship pedigree and Pemsl is the best player in the field. His dominance on the interior should be a problem for every team in the field outside of maybe Spirit Lake, who they wouldn’t see until the championship.
Chances they win it all: 30%. They enter the tournament as the favorite, and while this team probably isn’t as good as their previous two, it’ll take a big effort to knock them from their throne.
No. 6 seed: Cedar Rapids Xavier (16-8)
About Cedar Rapids Xavier: The Saints make their second straight tournament appearance behind the strength of a dynamic inside-out combination. Max Techau (14.0 points, 59.9 FG%) mans the interior and has been great on both ends of the floor. Sophomore guard Matt Mims (12.5) is a great playmaker and scorer on the perimeter who has complete control of the game, and Jackson Joens (43 3P%) has proven capable of stretching the floor. The big question for the Saints is the availability of leading scorer Mitchell Burger (16.6), who was suspended for both the district and substate finals. If he’s unavailable, life gets a little harder for the Saints.
Why they can win it all: They’ve gone through the grinder that is the MVC regular season schedule, and they’ve got a number of ways they can beat you. If Burger is available, he adds another dimension to their arsenal that makes them capable of putting up points in a hurry.
Chances they win it all: 12.5%. Their odds would likely go up a bit if we knew the status of Burger. Nonetheless, this team is certainly capable of winning it all with their blend of size, guard play and the experience they have playing against quality teams throughout the MVC schedule.
No. 7 seed: Perry (15-9)
About Perry: One of the state’s highest scoring teams, the Bluejays enter the tournament averaging 71.5 points per game. Led by Shammond Ivory’s 22.4 points, they’ve got four players averaging in double figures (Kyle Nevitt, 15.5; Janier Puente, 11.0; Ryan Rathje 10.4). They play an up-tempo style game and it’ll be interesting to see how that translates to the bigger court.
Why they can win it all: Shammond Ivory is one of the top players in the field, and he’s got the ability to take over a game. If the Bluejays are able to push the tempo and play at their pace, they can do some damage.
Chances they win it all: 4%. I’m not sure the Bluejays play good enough defense to make a run through three games against the level of competition they’ll see here, but with a player of Ivory’s caliber, they’ve always got a chance.
No. 8 seed: Solon (10-14)
About Solon: After losing eight straight games entering the postseason, the Spartans have ridden strong play from guard Streeter McIlravy through their district and substate rounds, culminating in an upset of Mount Vernon in the substate final. McIlravy averaged 19.7 points per game during their three postseason wins, a slight uptick from the 16.8 he averaged for the season. Jacob Coons and Brevin Hill have given the Spartans nearly 10-points a game as well.
Why they can win it all: McIlravy has been playing great basketball down the stretch. If they can play defense like they did against Mount Vernon in the substate final, they’ve got a chance.
Chances they win it all: 1%. There’s an old saying in poker, “a chip and a chair”, meaning they’ve got a chance until they get knocked out, which is exactly what Solon has. And while their run through district and substate play was nice, the competition reaches a new level at this point.
OUR PICKS
Tony
Quarterfinals: Chariton, Dubuque Wahlert, Pella, Cedar Rapids Xavier
Semifinals: Dubuque Wahlert, Pella
Champion: Dubuque Wahlert
T.J.
Quarterfinals: Chariton, Dubuque Wahlert, Pella, Spirit Lake
Semifinals: Dubuque Wahlert, Pella
Champion: Dubuque Wahlert
Travis
Quarterfinals: Chariton, Dubuque Wahlert, Pella, Spirit Lake
Semifinals: Dubuque Wahlert, Spirit Lake
Champion: Spirit Lake