Iowa Playoffs: Class 1A State Tournament Preview
No. 1 seed: Danville (24-1)
About Danville: The Bears have gone undefeated against in-state competition this year, with their lone loss coming to Payson-Seymour (IL). They’ve played a solid chunk of the season without (arguably) their best player in Kolton Jackson, but he started to work his way back into the rotation in the district semi-final, and should play a big role in Des Moines. The Bears have four double-figure scorers (Jackson, Dillon Sanchez, Mitch Martin, Mason Lorber), are fairly comfortable going deep into their bench and play a pressing style that could wear teams down.
Why they can win it all: This is a team and coaching staff that is accustomed to being in Des Moines. That experience can’t be overstated, and with their balanced attack, they’ll be tough to match up with.
Chances they win it all: 15%. The Bears are the top-seeded team for a reason, and they haven’t lost to an Iowa team yet this season. With their slew of talent on the offensive end, they can put up points on anyone.
No. 2 seed: Grand View Christian (25-1)
About Grand View Christian: The state’s highest scoring team averages 80.6 points per game and has obliterated teams by an average of 36 points a game. The Thunder make nearly 12 three-pointers per contest and do so at an efficient clip (41.5%). How their shooting translates to a big arena will go a long way in how far this team can go. Led by Stephen Glenn’s 15.8 points, Grand View has four players (Noah Burt, Robbie Seyler, Grant DeMeulenaere) averaging double digits. Like Danville, they play an up-tempo, pressing style that can wear down the opposition. Another concern with the Thunder is the schedule they’ve played in the Bluegrass Conference. According to BC Moore’s power rankings, their schedule ranks 97th in 1A, which is 32 spots lower than the next weakest schedule in the field.
Why they can win it all: They’ve got four players in the rotation that can really shoot the ball, they take great care of it (562-191 assist-to-turnover ratio) and force a big number of turnovers. If they can dictate tempo and knock down some shots, they’ll be a bear to take down.
Chances they win it all: 10%. Despite being the second seeded team in the field, the weak schedule throughout the regular season is cause for concern, as is a team that relies this heavily on the three-point shot transitioning to a much larger arena with an unfamiliar shooting background.
No. 3 seed: Gladbrook-Reinbeck (23-2)
About Gladbrook-Reinbeck: The defending champions have put together another solid season, racking up 23 wins and entering the state tournament on a 14-game winning streak. The Rebels are led by sensational junior guard Joe Smoldt (24.8 points, 51.8 FG%, 82 3PM), the best player in the field. They’ve got some players who have been through the state tournament grind and know what to expect.
Why they can win it all: The Rebels have the benefit of having the best player in the field on their roster, something that can’t go overstated in a field that appears to be as balanced as this one does. If Smoldt is able to come close to his season averages, while also getting his teammates involved, this team will be tough to beat.
Chances they win it all: 20%. In a field that looks as balanced as this one does, we make Gladbrook-Reinbeck a slight favorite due to the fact that they’ve got the best player in the field on their side.
No. 4 seed: West Hancock (23-2)
About West Hancock: The Eagles have blasted teams by an average of 32 points a game this season and have only been held under 70 points four times this season. The high scoring duo of Connor Sonius (20.5) and Nate Paulus (20.4) have put up big numbers, and they’ve found an enforcer on the interior in Seth Weiland (117 blocks) that allows them to take chances defensively. This group got their feet wet in the state tournament last year and will be looking to improve their performance.
Why they can win it all: Unlike many other teams in the field, West Hancock has a pair of players who can dominate the game in the scoring column. Connor Sonius (209-46 assist-to-turnover ratio) has been a wizard with the ball and they’ve got a number of role players who can provide additional offensive punch. Weiland can control the paint and help limit what some other teams in the field want to do offensively.
Chances they win it all: 20%. We’re making West Hancock a co-favorite, along with Gladbrook-Reinbeck. They’ve got a nice balance of players, pairing an explosive offense with a player who can control the paint and limit opportunities at the rim.
No. 5 seed: IKM-Manning (22-2)
About IKM-Manning: The Wolves are a veteran team that enters the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the state, having won 11 straight games. They haven’t lost to 1A competition this season. They’re led by Kyle Wagner, who is averaging just shy of 23 points a game. He’s joined by Ben Wegner (12.7) and Jared Vollstedt (11.5), giving IKM a trio of reliable scoring options.
Why they can win it all: They’ve got one of the best scorers in the field in Wagner, a player who can take over games and their staff has proven capable of finding ways to limit another team’s star in their split with 2A Treynor and the work they did on Nolan Chapman.
Chances they win it all: 10%. They’d probably have a better chance with a different draw, but seeing West Hancock in the first round isn’t ideal for them.
No. 6 seed: Jesup (22-3)
About Jesup: Led by junior point guard Ethan Wyant (18.3 points), the J-Hawks are undefeated against 1A competition this year. They’re a solid defensive team and an efficient, patient offensive team (50.2 FG%). They’ve got a pair of players on the interior in Tyler Lienau (13.7 points, 55.7 FG%) and Rodney Ciesielski (11.4, 55.2) that despite being a bit undersized have proven to be capable of controlling the paint and the glass.
Why they can win it all: They’ve got a dynamic lead guard in Wyant who has been great in big games this season, and they’re a team that is able to dictate and control the tempo. Additionally, should it come down to it, they’re the best free-throw shooting team in the field, shooting 70.2% from the line as a team.
Chances they win it all: 10%. Their chances vastly improve if they’re able to knock off Gladbrook-Reinbeck in the opening round. This is a disciplined, well-coached group with a lead guard who has routinely made big plays down the stretch in important games.
No. 7 seed: South O’Brien (22-3)
About South O’Brien: The Wolverines enter the tournament with the best scoring defense in the field, allowing just 42.5 points per game. Damon Struve (19.0 points per game) leads a group that gained valuable experience at the state tournament last season.
Why they can win it all: They’ve proven throughout the course of the season that they’re a very good defensive team, and at the state tournament, games tend to slow down a bit. The first round matchup against Grand View Christian presents an interesting contrast. If they’re able to dictate the tempo and slow the game down into more of a half-court setting, they’re capable of beating anyone in the field.
Chances they win it all: 10%. The Wolverines may have received the toughest draw of any team in the field, with a big contrast in styles in the first round, then a possible matchup with the defending champion in the semifinals. That said, with the way they defend, they can grind wins out.
No. 8 seed: Council Bluffs, St. Albert (15-9)
About Council Bluffs, St. Albert: The Falcons play in a league with bigger schools, something that gives them an edge here, as they won’t be scared by any team they run into. They’re led by Travis Miller (15.4), but this is the least efficient offensive team in the field (36.8 FG%). They’ll need to rely on a defense that has been very good this season against 1A competition.
Why they can win it all: The Falcons won’t be intimidated by anyone, as they’re a 1A school playing primarily 2A and 3A teams throughout the season. Nothing they see in the 1A field will surprise them and their defense has been sensational against 1A teams this year (38.6 points per game in five games).
Chances they win it all: 5%. Sure, they won’t be intimidated by anyone in the field and they’ve been good defensively, but this group will likely struggle to keep pace with some of the high powered attacks in the field.
OUR PICKS
Tony
Quarterfinals: Danville, West Hancock, Grand View Christian, Jesup
Semifinals: West Hancock, Jesup
Champion: Jesup
T.J.
Quarterfinals: Danville, West Hancock, Grand View Christian, Gladbrook-Reinbeck
Semifinals: West Hancock, Gladbrook-Reinbeck
Champion: West Hancock
Travis
Quarterfinals: Danville, West Hancock, Grand View Christian, Gladbrook-Reinbeck
Semifinals: West Hancock, Gladbrook-Reinbeck
Champion: West Hancock