Postseason Preview: Class 4A, Substate 4
Picking the first round games Iowa City Liberty at Davenport North: This is an interesting game that could help showcase the difference between the MVC and the MAC. Both teams finished with similar records (Liberty 8-12, North 9-12), but…
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Picking the first round games
Iowa City Liberty at Davenport North: This is an interesting game that could help showcase the difference between the MVC and the MAC. Both teams finished with similar records (Liberty 8-12, North 9-12), but does having to go through the really difficult MVC help the Lightning here? They enter the postseason riding high off a win over #3 Dubuque Senior, and will be looking to carry that momentum into this matchup. The Lightning are led by junior forward Andre Brandon (14.7), an efficient scorer around the rim who has put together a really strong season. Ethan O’Donnell (10.2) is the headliner in the backcourt, but this is a group that goes deep without too much dropoff, which could benefit them against the athleticism and quickness of North. The Wildcats are led by TJ Vesey (11.4), Quincy Wiseman (10.5) and Jayden Houston (9.9), a trio of athletic wing players who could create some issues on the defensive end of the floor for Liberty. If Liberty protects the ball and is able to run their offense, they will score. If they struggle with turnovers, North will be able to get out in transition and get easy buckets to help jumpstart their offense. These evenly matched teams should be tight throughout, and we’ll give the edge to North, playing at home.
Our pick: Davenport North 55, Iowa City Liberty 52
Clinton at Cedar Rapids Washington: The Warriors struggle at times on the defensive end, allowing 64.6 points a game, which ranks 42nd in 4A. Luckily for them, Clinton is the second worst offense in the class, averaging just 40 points a game, so it’s unlikely that the River Kings can expose the holes in Washington’s defense. Mick McCurry (18.5), Washington’s leading scorer and rebounder, is far and away the best player on the floor in this contest, and they should cruise through this one, setting up a meeting with Senior in the semifinals.
Our pick: Cedar Rapids Washington 68, Clinton 45
Previewing the semifinals
Davenport North at Bettendorf: Headlined by future Ohio State point guard DJ Carton (24.2), the #1 Bulldogs are the hottest team in 4A, having won 16 straight games, including a season sweep of North, 79-71 and 59-47. Bettendorf has started to get some high level production out of the role players around Carton, which is why they’ve rattled off so many wins in a row. Trevor Feller (9.4, 56 3PM, 44.1 3P%) made the game-winning 3 against North Scott, and Blake Tyler (7.3, 24 3PM, 34.8 3P%) gives them another shooter. Lucas Hayes (6.8) and Oliver Bakeris (5.4) have played well in the paint, and the ‘Dogs are one of the best defensive teams in 4A, allowing just 47 points a game. In a postseason setting, and a slower game, the more disciplined, better defensive team should lock down North and cruise through to the substate final against Senior.
Our pick: Bettendorf 62, Davenport North 46
Cedar Rapids Washington at Dubuque Senior: An odd loss to Liberty (former Senior assistant Ryan Kelly, now at Liberty, probably played a big part in that) is the only blemish on the resume for Senior since a December 11 loss to Iowa City West. The Rams have been great on both ends of the floor this year, ranking 11th in scoring offense (64.6) and 7th in defense (50.4). The Rams opened the year ranked #1 by us, and after an odd 1-2 start without Sam Link (8.5) in the lineup, they rattled off 13 straight wins. Noah Carter (22.2) is the headliner here. The future UNI forward is a dynamic scorer from anywhere on the floor, and is capable of dominating any game. Nick Timmerman (10.1) and Link (43.8 3P%) give the Rams some additional shooting around Carter, while Cooper Medinger (6.7, 67.9 FG%, 95 assists, 25 turnovers) has been rock solid at the lead guard spot, rarely turning it over and taking really efficient shots. Landon Hermsen (8.5) gives the Rams more size in the paint and an additional rim protector alongside Carter. Senior blasted Washington in the regular season finale, 76-55, and shouldn’t have too much trouble rolling past the Warriors again here to set up a massive matchup against Bettendorf.
Our pick: Dubuque Senior 72, Cedar Rapids Washington 56
Players to watch
2019 DJ Carton, Bettendorf
2019 Noah Carter, Dubuque Senior
2019 Nick Timmerman, Dubuque Senior
2019 Bret Myli, Clinton
2019 TJ Vesey, Davenport North
2021 Jayden Houston, Davenport North
2019 Mick McCurry, Cedar Rapids Washington
2020 Andre Brandon, Iowa City Liberty
SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION
Bettendorf vs. Dubuque Senior
If you’re a proponent of BC Moore’s power rating system, his rankings give a major edge to Senior here, ranking the Rams as six points better, despite Bettendorf’s 20-1 mark. The key piece of that is the difference between the MVC and the MAC, and in Substates 4, 5 and 6, we should get a real look at the power of each league. Both teams have dominant players who the other team will likely struggle to contain with Carton and Carter, but we had Senior ranked #1 to open the year for a reason – their role players and defensive system are high level, and those role players make the difference here. Despite Bettendorf entering the postseason ranked #1 by us here, it’s Senior who we have coming out of this substate in a tight game. Noah Carter makes a few more plays down the stretch, giving Senior a five-point win and a trip to Des Moines.