Substate Preview: 3A-4

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/3A-4.png"><img src="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/3A-4.png?w=610" alt="" class="wp-image-2348312" /></a></figure>   The favorite: This is a very tricky substate, and figures to be one that is pretty wide open. Take BC Moore rankings for what you will, but it's interesting to see that #2 seed, Assumption, is ranked 3rd in those rankings, while top seeded Marion is all the way down at 29th. When Assumption is playing at their best, they might be the best 3A team in the state, but consistency has been a bit of an issue. They have good wins this year over Bettendorf, Cedar Falls, and Davenport West, but also have losses to Davenport Central and Muscatine on their resume. Sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='1660062' first='Navon' last='Shabazz'] (15.9, 3.3 assists) leads the way on both ends of the floor. A skilled, athletic 6-3/6-4 guard with great size, Shabazz holds a handful of Division I offers already, and he's the type of dynamic player who can take over a game for stretches. [player_tooltip player_id='1759900' first='Damyen' last='Jackson'] (14.5) is another quick guard who is at his best when he's playing downhill and attacking the rim, while [player_tooltip player_id='1759943' first='Braylon' last='Thomsen'] (8.8) is an athletic, physical wing who can shoot it from the arc. [player_tooltip player_id='1759902' first='Kayvion' last='Hodges'] (8.5, 6.4 rebounds) is an undersized forward but he's a special athlete who pounds the glass on both ends of the floor, defends multiple positions, and can create off the dribble. [player_tooltip player_id='2397362' first='Joey' last='Funderburk'] (7.2) is a floor-stretching big, and [player_tooltip player_id='2511468' first='Isiah' last='Rose'] (4.9) and Joe Tallman (3.2) provide more depth. In Shabazz, the Knights have the best player in the substate, and if they can put three good games together, they're without a doubt the team to beat here. Putting together three consecutive good games will be the key, however.   The biggest threats: It's hard to get a great read on Marion, as the WaMaC wasn't quite as strong this year as it has been in recent years. The Wolves have lost just twice since the holiday break, against Solon and Waverly-Shell Rock, a pair of top-5 teams in the class. While they're the top seed in this substate, the uncertainty about the resume and the relative strength of the parochial schools in the substate, relegate them down to this category, which may be perceived as a bit of a slight to a strong program. Senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1960901' first='Kylar' last='Whitman'] (12.1, 8.8 rebounds, 58.3 FG%) is the leading scorer and rebounder, while [player_tooltip player_id='1402185' first='Austin' last='Goodrich'] (11.2, 38.1 3P%) provides shooting, and [player_tooltip player_id='2325432' first='Jordan' last='Fischer'] (9.2, 3.6 assists) is the playmaker of the backcourt and probably the most experienced player on the roster. The Wolves are solid defensively, allowing just 52.7 points a game, and they're accustomed to playing in tight games, going 8-1 in games decided by single digits this year, a benefit in postseason games.   Xavier, like Assumption, plays in a 4A-dominated league, which should in theory prepare them well for 3A postseason play. The Saints have had some solid wins this season over Waverly-Shell Rock and Linn-Mar, but they've scuffled a bit after the holiday break, going just 5-7 during that stretch. The Saints are led by senior big man [player_tooltip player_id='1751083' first='Tyler' last='Netolicky'] (12.9, 11.1 rebounds, 1.2 blocks), who is the type of mobile big man who can cause problems for some teams with his size and mobility. [player_tooltip player_id='1978144' first='Zander' last='Murray'] (10.8, 34.2 3P%) is the team's best perimeter shooting threat, a catch-and-shoot weapon who got off to a slow start in his first varsity minutes this year, but is a player who has come on fairly strong down the stretch. [player_tooltip player_id='1765554' first='AJ' last='Evans'] (4.8) provides more size and athleticism in the frontcourt, while wings [player_tooltip player_id='2204878' first='Kaleb' last='Wilgenbusch'] (9.4) and [player_tooltip player_id='2325576' first='Dominic' last='D'Amico'] (7.8, 38.8 3P%) have been solid two-way contributors. The Saints lost 55-37 in early January against Marion, getting outrebounded 31-18 in that game, an area they'll need to address in a semifinal rematch.   The dark horses: Dark horse teams can come in all shapes, sizes, and styles of play. One of the potential sleepers in this substate is built on an explosive offense, while the other is comfortable playing in grinding rock fights. We'll start with the dynamic offensive team, Maquoketa, a team averaging 71 points a game behind the fantastic senior trio of [player_tooltip player_id='1376691' first='Tye' last='Hardin'] (20.8, 8.6 rebounds), [player_tooltip player_id='1751093' first='Tyler' last='Hinz'] (14.6, 5.3 assists), and [player_tooltip player_id='1376709' first='Carter' last='Meyer'] (13.0). All three of these skilled guards are capable of playing with or without the ball in their hands, and all three can score 25 points on any given night. [player_tooltip player_id='2820184' first='Eli' last='Lemke'] (6.9) and [player_tooltip player_id='2413548' first='Nolan' last='Ehlinger'] (6.9) provide some additional scoring punch, and while this team doesn't shoot it particularly well from the arc (29.4% as a team), they play so fast that they're able to get a ton of shots up to offset some of the inefficiency. The pace that they play at can be difficult to keep up with.   Mount Vernon is the type of program that is always dangerous in a postseason setting, a team that likes to play at a bit slower tempo and is comfortable playing in tight games. They're physical and athletic, with a number of football players on the roster, and they can wear teams down as the game progresses. The health of standout senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1171688' first='Jackson' last='Kutcher'] (15.2) is in question heading into postseason play, and if he's unable to go, that's obviously a significant blow for the Mustangs. Joey Rhomberg (11.0, 5.9 rebounds) and [player_tooltip player_id='2397355' first='Joe' last='Briesemeister'] (9.6, 6.9 rebounds) are a pair of strong, athletic forwards who control the glass, and sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='2413510' first='Kellen' last='Haverback'] (10.9) has provided some perimeter scoring. This is a tough, defensive-minded team that ranks 3rd in 3A in scoring defense, giving up just 47.8 points a game.   Players to watch 2024 Kyler Whitman, Marion 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1402185' first='Austin' last='Goodrich'], Marion 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='2325432' first='Jordan' last='Fischer'], Marion 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1660062' first='Navon' last='Shabazz'], Assumption 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1759900' first='Damyen' last='Jackson'], Assumption 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1759902' first='Kayvion' last='Hodges'], Assumption 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1171688' first='Jackson' last='Kutcher'], Mount Vernon 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1376688' first='Joe' last='Rhomberg'], Mount Vernon 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413510' first='Kellen' last='Haverback'], Mount Vernon 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1376691' first='Tye' last='Hardin'], Maquoketa 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1751093' first='Tyler' last='Hinz'], Maquoketa 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1376709' first='Carter' last='Meyer'], Maquoketa 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1751083' first='Tyler' last='Netolicky'], Xavier 2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978144' first='Zander' last='Murray'], Xavier 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2204878' first='Kaleb' last='Wilgenbusch'], Xavier 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1484410' first='Ryan' last='Watters'], Central DeWitt 2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1751186' first='Landon' last='Schroeder'], Central DeWitt 2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2165699' first='Riley' last='Perkins'], Fairfield   SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION   Marion vs. Assumption   There are a number of teams that we could see getting to this substate final, but at the end of the road, we'll side with the top two seeds reaching this spot. If Assumption has gotten here, that means they're playing good basketball, and when they're playing well, they're too explosive and athletic for Marion to keep up with. [player_tooltip player_id='1660062' first='Navon' last='Shabazz'] delivers a big game, and Assumption punches their ticket to the state tournament.