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<p><strong>The favorite: </strong>This is a really tricky substate to try and pick, because the #3 seed, Hoover, has the most high-end talent. Waverly-Shell Rock probably has the most balanced roster. And Williamsburg has put together the best, most consistent, season. Then you have a few other potential spoilers thrown in. That said, we're going to make <strong>Hoover </strong>the favorite to come out of this substate, despite being the #3 seed, because their ceiling is the highest of any team in this substate. The Huskies are led by senior point guard [player_tooltip player_id='956876' first='Chase' last='Henderson'] (21.0, 4.8 assists), a quick guard who can score from all three levels, impact the game defensively, and get others involved. Henderson is headed to play his college ball at Montana and is going to be a difficult player for any of the teams in this substate to slow down. [player_tooltip player_id='956869' first='Elijah' last='Vos'] (13.8, 39.7 3P%) is a skilled wing who can score from all three levels and is a knockdown shooter who moves really well without the ball in his hands. The Henderson-Vos tandem is the best one-two punch in the group, but the Huskies will need to get some major production out of their role players if they are going to navigate their way through here. </p>
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<p><strong>The biggest threats:</strong> <strong>Williamsburg</strong> has been really consistent over the last few years, always playing strong defense and using a balanced scoring approach behind star [player_tooltip player_id='1171685' first='Derek' last='Weisskopf'] (18.9, 8.6 rebounds) to grind opposing teams into submission. The Raiders brought a lot back from a team that made it to the 2A substate finals last year, and they've had a ton of success in the 3A-heavy WaMaC this season, so they should be prepared for postseason play. Weisskopf, a future Iowa football player, is a fantastic athlete who can do a little bit of everything on the floor for this group. He creates his own shot as well as gets looks for others. He can defend multiple positions, and he's great on the glass. Landon Jepson (12.0, 41.8 3P%) has been the only consistent shooting threat this year, an area of weakness for the Raiders (29.6 3P% as a team), and something that could hurt them in postseason play. [player_tooltip player_id='1426814' first='Ethan' last='Harman'] (11.4), a long, lanky lefty scorer, is the other major piece for this group. They'll get their semifinal game against (likely) Hoover at home, which is a boost, but will they have the shooting to keep pace and the quickness to defend the quick Huskies?</p>
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<p>After a few down years by their standards, <strong>Waverly-Shell Rock</strong> has put together a really nice season, especially since the holiday break. The Go-Hawks have gone 12-2 after the hiatus with a +17.0 point differential in those 14 games. Junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1376675' first='Cole' last='Marsh'] (14.8, 39.6 3P%) leads a quartet of double-figure scorers for a team that is shooting 40.4% from behind the arc. [player_tooltip player_id='1751095' first='Noah' last='Frazell'] (14.6, 42.6 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id='1759905' first='Luke' last='Frazell'] (12.5, 48.3 3P%), and [player_tooltip player_id='1751097' first='Benny' last='Ramker'] (10.2, 50.0 3P%) are the other big-time scorers, and this is a group that is able to go deep into their bench, with four others averaging between 3.0 and 7.0 points a game. This is a dynamic offensive team, averaging 71.3 points a game, 5th in 3A, and with the number of fantastic shooters they have, they're a real threat to do a ton of damage if they can get to Des Moines. One thing to note with WSR is that they're the second-best free-throw shooting team in the class, burying 75.3% of their attempts from the charity stripe.</p>
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<p><strong>The dark horses: Pella</strong> always has a deep stable of quality athletes, and this year is no exception. The Dutch are allowing just 53.2 points a game and have ten players averaging at least 2.0 points a game. [player_tooltip player_id='1171672' first='Luke' last='Hardman'] (13.5) leads the team in scoring, a good shooter who uses his frame to get to the bucket as well. [player_tooltip player_id='1171673' first='Romon' last='Hugan'] (10.0), Cam Schulte (8.2, 7.9 rebounds), Trey Van Hauen (7.3, 3.0 assists), [player_tooltip player_id='1167696' first='Luke' last='Keitges'] (6.6), and [player_tooltip player_id='2398044' first='Brayden' last='Traetow'] (6.2) are each viable scoring threats as well, making the Dutch a difficult team to defend. With the number of talented athletes that they can throw at opposing teams on both ends of the floor, they'll make life difficult for Waverly-Shell Rock in the semifinals and it wouldn't be a surprise at all if the Dutch are playing for a chance to go to the state tournament. </p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to watch</span><br>2023 [player_tooltip player_id='956876' first='Chase' last='Henderson'], Hoover<br>2023 [player_tooltip player_id='956869' first='Elijah' last='Vos'], Hoover<br>2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1376675' first='Cole' last='Marsh'], Waverly-Shell Rock<br>2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1751095' first='Noah' last='Frazell'], Waverly-Shell Rock<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1759905' first='Luke' last='Frazell'], Waverly-Shell Rock<br>2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1171685' first='Derek' last='Weisskopf'], Williamsburg<br>2023 Landon Jepson, Williamsburg<br>2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1426814' first='Ethan' last='Harman'], Williamsburg<br>2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1171672' first='Luke' last='Hardman'], Pella<br>2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1171673' first='Romon' last='Hugan'], Pella<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1668669' first='Landen' last='Norris'], Knoxville<br>2023 Noah Franck, Benton<br>2023 Ivan Alvarado, South Tama</p>
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<p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p>
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<p>Waverly-Shell Rock vs. Hoover</p>
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<p>Any of the four teams that we mentioned have great arguments to be made for why they can win this substate and get to Des Moines. We pegged <strong>Hoover</strong> as the #1 team in 3A back in August, and while the Huskies have been a bit disappointing, they have a chance to redeem themselves here and get to the state tournament. Behind a big three-game stretch from Henderson and Vos, the Huskies punch their ticket to Wells Fargo Arena.</p>
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