Substate Preview: 3A-8

<p><a href="https://prephoops-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/ph/uploads/2022/02/3A-8.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1384063" src="https://prephoops-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/ph/uploads/2022/02/3A-8.png" alt="" width="774" height="437" /></a></p> <p><strong>The favorite: Harlan</strong> got off to an 11-0 start before going just 4-5 down the stretch. Three of those five losses have come by four points or less, so the Cyclones have been really close in their losses and should be considered the favorite in this substate as the group’s top seed. Four players average in double-figures in juniors [player_tooltip player_id="1367398" first="Jacob" last="Birch"] (15.2, 40.6 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id="1167729" first="Bradley" last="Curren"] (12.9, 4.2 assists), Aidan Hall (12.0, 8.4 rebounds), and senior [player_tooltip player_id="1158445" first="Connor" last="Frame"] (11.7). Coach Mitch Osborn has a physical group that loves to pound the offensive glass, averaging 11.2 offensive boards a game. They are physical, strong, and athletic, and they’ll compete hard on both ends of the floor. </p> <p><strong>The biggest threats: Heelan</strong> has played the toughest schedule of any team in the substate as they play in the Missouri River Conference against primarily 4A schools. The Crusaders are led by sophomore wing [player_tooltip player_id="1171695" first="Matthew" last="Noll"] (13.9, 7.7 rebounds), a 6-5/6-6 three-level scorer who has enjoyed a breakout year. Senior forward Nick Miller (11.1, 7.9 rebounds) is a force on the glass and an efficient interior scorer, while [player_tooltip player_id="1367436" first="Sam" last="Skinner"] (9.0), [player_tooltip player_id="1288894" first="Carter" last="Kuehl"] (8.8), and [player_tooltip player_id="1288898" first="Beau" last="Chamberlain"] (5.0) give them some perimeter scoring options. Noll will be a difficult matchup for a majority of the teams in this substate, which could give Heelan an edge.</p> <p>In senior guards [player_tooltip player_id="962631" first="Kaleb" last="Booth"] (20.1, 4.9 assists) and [player_tooltip player_id="962671" first="Nick" last="Macke"] (10.4), <strong>Carroll</strong> may have the best backcourt in the substate, and they’re starting to play pretty good ball, winning four straight as of this writing. Booth is armed with an excellent pull-up game, getting the ball into his shooting pocket quickly, and he’s an excellent ball-handler with good footwork that he uses to create space to get his shot off, while Macke is a good off-ball guard who can really shoot it. Caden Kock (9.0) and Evan Hammer (7.6) will be key for the Tigers, as they’ll need to control the glass against some of the bigger, more physical teams that they may meet. </p> <p><strong>Lewis Central</strong> split their season series with Harlan, losing 55-53 on January 4 and winning 53-43 on February 4. The Titans also hold a 50-37 win over Denison-Schleswig, so they know that they’re capable of making the substate final in this group. Sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id="1376689" first="Cole" last="Arnold"] (14.5) leads the team in scoring and is the team’s best 3-point shooting threat, while senior wing [player_tooltip player_id="1158489" first="Wyatt" last="Hatcher"] (12.4, 5.3 rebounds) and junior forward Colby Souther (8.4) are the other key scorers. Senior forward Trenton Johnette (3.9, 7.1 rebounds) may be a key piece for the Titans in this substate, as he’s a long 6-6 forward who can protect the rim and control the glass. The Titans have also been the best defensive team in the group, allowing just 49.3 points a game, good for 8th in 3A.</p> <p><strong>The dark horses:</strong> You could pretty much make an argument for any team in this substate with the exception of Perry. <strong>Atlantic</strong> has wins late in the season over Harlan and Denison-Schleswig, <strong>Glenwood</strong> has a standout guard in junior [player_tooltip player_id="1240101" first="Caden" last="Johnson"] (18.7) who can carry them, and<strong> Denison-Schleswig</strong> has two talented guards in [player_tooltip player_id="1367445" first="Carson" last="Seuntjens"] (13.9) and [player_tooltip player_id="1376724" first="Luke" last="Wiebers"] (10.5) who are capable shooting threats that could get hot. This substate is as balanced as we can remember, and it really wouldn’t surprise us to see any of the top seven seeds emerge. </p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Players to watch</span><br /> 2023 [player_tooltip player_id="1367398" first="Jacob" last="Birch"], Harlan<br /> 2023 [player_tooltip player_id="1167729" first="Bradley" last="Curren"], Harlan<br /> 2023 Aidan Hall, Harlan<br /> 2024 [player_tooltip player_id="1171695" first="Matthew" last="Noll"], Heelan<br /> 2022 Nick Miller, Heelan<br /> 2022 [player_tooltip player_id="962631" first="Kaleb" last="Booth"], Carroll<br /> 2022 [player_tooltip player_id="962671" first="Nick" last="Macke"], Carroll<br /> 2024 [player_tooltip player_id="1376689" first="Cole" last="Arnold"], Lewis Central<br /> 2022 [player_tooltip player_id="1158489" first="Wyatt" last="Hatcher"], Lewis Central<br /> 2023 [player_tooltip player_id="1240101" first="Caden" last="Johnson"], Glenwood<br /> 2023 [player_tooltip player_id="1367445" first="Carson" last="Seuntjens"], Denison-Schleswig<br /> 2022 [player_tooltip player_id="1352969" first="Dayton" last="Templeton"], Atlantic<br /> 2024 [player_tooltip player_id="1376690" first="Colton" last="Rasmussen"], Atlantic<br /> <br /> </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3 style="text-align: center;">SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</h3> <p style="text-align: center;">Harlan vs. Heelan</p> <p>You could mix and match any of the top seven seeds in this game, but we’ll stick with the chalk and the top two seeded teams. Harlan’s balanced attack got the Cyclones off to an excellent start this year, and it may be too much for Heelan to contain on the defensive end. The balanced attack from <strong>Harlan</strong> gets the Cyclones back to the state tournament for the 20th time in school history. </p>