Minnesota Playoff Central: The Biggest Section Seeding Surprises

All the section seeds are in. What do we see as the biggest surprises? Let's talk about them.   To the coaches that disagree with me, I am sorry. This is just my opinion, it's not a conspiracy, even though some of you will feel like that's the only reasoning. It's just my opinion.   6AAAA   We start here because it's the biggest conversation. Why is it the biggest conversation? I think it's the biggest debate because there are so many different aspects to talk about when it comes to Buffalo and Hopkins. The biggest item? Is the seeding conversation about who had the better year? Or who is playing better? Because personally I would pick Buffalo for the better season but Hopkins playing better basketball now.   Let's start with why Buffalo should be the second seed. Let's keep it basic, Buffalo is ranked higher in the state because they have had the better year overall from start to finish. Buffalo has no bad losses (although they have a couple rough point differentials in those losses) and when it comes to section opponents Buffalo has a better record (5-3 compared to 3-4 for Hopkins). The Bison are 21-5 on the season and we won't waste space with all the good wins (you can see them in the top ten rankings). They of course earned a win over Hopkins in the first head to head game. Overall they have a better overall resume.   Then you have Hopkins. They won the latest game over Buffalo, they have the better Lake Conference record by a game, and the Royals are the better team right now based on recent results and the recent win over Buffalo which was in the second head to head game.   So what are we measuring? Hopkins has the better league record which is a league that plays their 12 games during the second half of the season. They are playing better and they won the second head to head game. They are clearly the choice if we are talking about things right now.   But if you are measuring the full season it's Buffalo. They have the better full resume and the better mark against section opponents. Many want to lean towards the conference record but the conference is mostly or all at the back end of the schedule and it's a small league schedule.   What does it matter? Likely not much. Whatever the argument the teams are still expected to be in the 2/3 game regardless, it's just about home court advantage. How big is home court advantage in high school basketball? I don't know fully but I think in this situation it does matter. But now Buffalo is going to be angry and extra motivated. Whatever the case, I think Buffalo should be the two, but I also will be picking Hopkins to beat Buffalo because I think they are playing better basketball.   I am also curious here how St. Louis Park (10-16) jumped BOTH Washburn (15-11) and Armstrong (13-13). Washburn beat Armstrong, Armstrong beat St. Louis Park, and St. Louis Park beat Washburn. When it comes to QRF it went Washburn-Armstrong-St. Louis Park and that is what the records say the order should be as well. St. Louis Park had the best win (Hopkins) but when you look at records/QRF the order is kind of odd. But maybe I missed something.   8AAAA   Elk River is 12-14 on the season and the three seed, Monticello is 21-5 and is the four seed. The Elks are 39 in the QRF, the Magic are 28th. And of course Monticello beat Elk River 69-53 (and Monticello was up 25 at the half). Elk River has a nice 6-2 record against section teams which really helped them (really good wins over Bemidji and Moorhead), but the Magic are 4-2 and of course won head to head. The Magic have also won their last nine games so they are coming in hot. I honestly have no idea how this can happen based on what I am looking at and it matters because Alexandria is the heavy favorite and having to play them a game earlier than expected is something you work to avoid with a good season. Also, the four seed has to play Moorhead (17-9) in round one and obviously tougher than eight-win Brainerd so Monticello can't even worry about round two, they have been dealt a 21-5 vs 17-9 game in round one.   This decision alone is going to lead to people questioning if coaches should be allowed to handle this any more. That is not fair because computers can't factor in a ton of things and most sections can handle section seeding the right way without oddities like this.   3AAA   Simley had the better QRF by two points but they lost to Highland Park by eight points and Highland Park was 15-11 while Simley was 10-13. Did one have a tougher schedule than the other? Looking at the schedules, I don't see a big enough difference in that regard for Simley to jump the Scots when you have the head to head and the overall record.

All the section seeds are in. What do we see as the biggest surprises? Let's talk about them.