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<p><strong>The favorite: </strong>Defending champion <strong>Madrid</strong> hasn't been quite as dominant as they were last year, but the Tigers have been playing fantastic basketball since the holiday break, losing just once since the calendar turned to 2026. Sophomore forward [player_tooltip player_id='2439640' first='Jevyn' last='Severson'] (24.2, 9.9 rebounds, 63.4 FG%) has stepped into the leading role this season and been fantastic, using his unique blend of size, athleticism, physicality, finesse, and flat-out talent to dominate games on the offensive end. Teams at this level rarely have an answer for him, and that appears to be the case in this district as well. Junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='2420789' first='Emerson' last='Bridgewater'] (12.0, 7.4 rebounds) is a nice second option, another skilled forward who can score around the rim, and he has served as the Tigers' top playmaker this season. This is a young group, with four more sophomores filling out the rest of the rotation in Logan Bogardus (9.6), Max Fowler (7.0), Zach Newell (5.2), and Kolbie Owens (4.5), and while they're inexperienced, they're very talented and should be considered the favorite here.</p>
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<p>The biggest threat: The bottom of the bracket could go a few different ways, but given that Mount Ayr swept Martensdale-St Marys during the regular season, the Raiders get the edge here. Senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2886911' first='Jackson' last='Ruggles'] (21.2) is a dominant scorer and two-way player who can dominate games on either end of the floor, posting 3.3 stocks to go with his scoring prowess. Three others average between 7.6 and 10.0 points per game alongside Ruggles, giving them some solid options. Like Madrid, the Raiders have played good ball after the holiday break and enter the postseason having won 11 of their last 12.</p>
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<p><strong>The dark horse(s):</strong> Senior forward Colton Wright (15.9, 9.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists) is a bit of a Swiss Army knife on both ends of the floor for <strong>Martensdale-St Marys,</strong> providing the Blue Devils with some versatility on both ends of the floor. Jack Rezac (11.7) and Jack Gavin (10.1) have both been solid alongside Wright this season, and this is a team that absolutely pounds the offensive glass, averaging 15 second chances per game.</p>
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<p>If you're looking for a real dark horse in the district, check out <strong>Woodward Academy</strong>. The Knights are led by [player_tooltip player_id='3254923' first='Benny' last='Doe'] (21.8, 4.1 assists, 5.5 steals), who is capable of having some truly explosive scoring games. He's a small, but lightning quick guard who can take over games as a scorer, playmaker, or defender. Woodward beat Mount Ayr a little over a month ago and is a team that can do some damage here if Doe gets rolling.</p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2439640' first='Jevyn' last='Severson'] (Madrid)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2420789' first='Emerson' last='Bridgewater'] (Madrid)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2886911' first='Jackson' last='Ruggles'] (Mount Ayr)<br>2026 Colton Wright (Martensdale-St Marys)<br>2027 Jack Rezac (Martensdale-St Marys)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3254923' first='Benny' last='Doe'] (Woodward Academy)<br>2027 Jace Lewis (Colfax-Mingo)<br>2027 Sevastian Scabbyrobe (Meskwaki Settlement)<br>2026 Blake Boyd (Central Decatur)<br>2026 Paxon Applegate (Central Decatur)<br>2029 Kynzer Norman (Central Decatur)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='3433725' first='Peyton' last='Scott'] (Lamoni)<br>2026 Kelan Stevenson (Lamoni)<br>2026 Lane Flesher (Mormon Trail)</p>
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<p><strong>The favorite: </strong>Given the fact that they hold a 25-point win over the #2 seed in the district, it's pretty safe to say that <strong>St. Albert </strong>is an overwhelming favorite to come out of this district and advance to the substate final. The Falcons have compiled a 17-5 record despite primarily playing 2A and 3A teams, beat Woodbine 65-40 a month ago, and are just quite clearly the most talented team in this group. Sophomores [player_tooltip player_id='2523893' first='Cooper' last='Hamilton'] (19.4) and [player_tooltip player_id='2509580' first='Colt' last='Spencer'] (14.8, 8.5 rebounds) are the headliners of the group. Both started on varsity last season and have taken their games to another level this season. Both are capable of playing with or without the ball in their hands and controlling games as scorers or playmakers. Noah Narmi (10.8), the lone senior who sees significant time, is the team's best shooter, and sophomore guard Mekai Wellage (5.3) gives them some speed in the backcourt. This is a young team that is maybe a year ahead of schedule, but they're legit. It would be a very, very big upset if St. Albert doesn't represent District 12 in the substate final.</p>
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<p><strong>The biggest threat: Woodbine</strong> has reached the state tournament in back-to-back years, and a good chunk of those rosters remains, so they know what it takes to win in the postseason when games slow down a bit. Junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1977076' first='Landon' last='Blum'] (20.7, 9.3 rebounds) may be the most talented individual player in the district, a plus athlete who can score from all three levels. The Pryor boys - Brodyn Pryor (12.3) and [player_tooltip player_id='2413631' first='Jax' last='Pryor'] (11.4) - both have a ton of experience as well. There is something to be said for having a lot of postseason experience, something that St. Albert has, but overcoming a 25-point loss is a lot of overcome.</p>
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<p><strong>The dark horse: Ar-We-Va </strong>was swept in the regular season by Woodbine, but the Rockets are the next most likely team to come out of the bottom of this bracket. Senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='3434233' first='Wyatt' last='Ragaller'] (17.7) leads a trio of double-figure scorers, and they do a pretty good job both on the offensive glass (11.7) and in limiting turnovers (11.4), both big things to take care of in postseason play.</p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2523893' first='Cooper' last='Hamilton'] (St. Albert)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2509580' first='Colt' last='Spencer'] (St. Albert)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='1977076' first='Landon' last='Blum'] (Woodbine)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3434233' first='Wyatt' last='Ragaller'] (Ar-We-Va)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='3344407' first='Carter' last='Jorgenson'] (Sidney)<br>2027 Tristen Burkhart (Boyer Valley)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731804' first='Isaiah' last='Sholes'] (Essex)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2833545' first='Collin' last='Harder'] (AHSTW)</p>
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<p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p>
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<p>Madrid vs. St. Albert</p>
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<p>The defending champs should get a chance to win their way to Des Moines to defend their title, and St. Albert <em>shouldn't</em> have many issues in their district, setting up this battle. In [player_tooltip player_id='2439640' first='Jevyn' last='Severson'], Madrid probably has the best player on the floor, but the Falcons have the second and third best players, and a significant edge in level of competition they've faced throughout the year. Both of these teams are really young, and it wouldn't be a surprise whatsoever to see them battle it out again next year, but this time in the semifinals or championship game at the state tournament. <strong>St. Albert </strong>advances to Des Moines for the first time since 2019, giving Madrid something to build on heading into next season.</p>
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