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<p><strong>The favorite: </strong>The best scoring defense in Class 2A resides in this district, <strong>Iowa City Regina</strong>. The Regals are allowing just 40.1 points per game, and enter postseason play on a 16-game winning streak. They have some serious size with 6-9 sophomore [player_tooltip player_id='2523886' first='Ben' last='Wade'] (11.3, 6.8 rebounds, 1.1 blocks), 6-5 [player_tooltip player_id='2419768' first='Tate' last='Wallace'] (17.4, 6.2 rebounds, 65.8 FG%), and 6-4 [player_tooltip player_id='2419815' first='Will' last='Litton'] (12.6, 6.2 rebounds, 53.3 FG%). And they're not only big, they're athletic. Wallace and Litton are both standout football players with a blend of size, strength, athleticism, and physicality that is rivaled by few in the class. [player_tooltip player_id='2617531' first='Miles' last='Nuzback'] (8.6) and [player_tooltip player_id='2886831' first='Drew' last='Greve'] (6.2, 4.9 assists) headline the backcourt, and that starting five is far-and-away the best in this substate. With their size, length, and athleticism, they're going to be a tough nut to crack.</p>
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<p><strong>The biggest threat: </strong>The #3 seed in the district, <strong>West Burlington</strong>, split their season series with Central Lee, and while they'll have to go on the road for that semifinal, I think the Falcons have a better chance at giving Regina a game than Central Lee does. Senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='2731885' first='Ayden' last='Figuereo'] (14.9, 8.2 rebounds) and sophomore Silas Lotzow (13.2, 9.3 rebounds) give them some real athleticism and toughness in the paint, and that tandem, despite being undersized, could give Regina's size some problems on the glass with how athletic they are. </p>
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<p><strong>The dark horse: </strong>As the #2 seed in the district, <strong>Central Lee</strong> will get to host the semifinal game against West Burlington, which should theoretically give them the edge. The Hawks are led by senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1978138' first='Will' last='Hayes'] (13.2, 6.9 rebounds), a highly efficient scorer who can protect the paint. [player_tooltip player_id='2429227' first='Carson' last='Morrison'] (11.9) is a solid perimeter scorer, and the tandem of [player_tooltip player_id='1710386' first='Owen' last='Swan'] (9.3) and [player_tooltip player_id='2429233' first='Kaden' last='Swan'] (8.4) have done a nice job limiting turnovers (9.1 per game). Do the Hawks have enough size to keep Regina off the glass? That seems like a tall task.</p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419768' first='Tate' last='Wallace'] (Regina)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419815' first='Will' last='Litton'] (Regina)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2523886' first='Ben' last='Wade'] (Regina)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731885' first='Ayden' last='Figuereo'] (West Burlington)<br>2028 Silas Lotzow (West Burlington)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978138' first='Will' last='Hayes'] (Central Lee)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2429227' first='Carson' last='Morrison'] (Central Lee)<br>2026 Gavin Spaur (Eddyville-Blakesburg-Fremont)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2906532' first='Will' last='Cocherell'] (Van Buren County)<br>2026 Alijah Frase (Cardinal)</p>
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<p><strong>The favorite:</strong> At times, <strong>Northeast</strong> can look like a state semifinalist-level team. At times, they can look like a team that could lose their first district game. And a majority of the time, they're somewhere in between. That type of volatility makes Northeast a dangerous team to trust, but they could also be the team that upsets Regina in the substate final and gets to Des Moines. The Rebels have quality wins over Alburnett, Bellevue, Beckman (twice), Monticello, Cascade, and Wilton, but they've also been boat-raced by a few teams they've beaten. Sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='2523908' first='Jaxen' last='Christiansen'] (21.9, 4.0 assists) is an explosive three-level scorer who can dominate games as a scorer and playmaker, while [player_tooltip player_id='2420792' first='Emerson' last='Kreinbrink'] (14.8, 7.8 rebounds) and Connor Soesbe (7.7, 7.2 rebounds) give them some physicality and rebounding. They're up-and-down, but when they're good, they're good. </p>
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<p><strong>The biggest threat: Mid-Prairie</strong> averages more than 25 3-point attempts per game, and they have a number of quality shooting threats who can get hot, and if the Golden Hawks have a night where they knock down 11 or 12 3-pointers, they're capable of beating anyone. Senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2520036' first='Bryce' last='Henry'] (17.7, 38.9 3P%) is the headliner of the group, and junior Brooks Weber (12.5, 3.7 assists) is the straw that stirs the drink. Like Northeast, Mid-Prairie can be up-and-down, but if the shots are falling, they can beat anyone.</p>
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<p><strong>The dark horse: Mediapolis</strong> has won five of their last six games heading into postseason play, with the loss coming to 3A Mount Pleasant. The Bulldogs have a pair of talented guards in seniors [player_tooltip player_id='1596452' first='Max' last='Griffin'] (18.2) and [player_tooltip player_id='2731857' first='Will' last='Luttenegger'] (14.9, 5.6 assists) who can control the game. Griffin is more of an off-ball guard who scores in bunches, but he's capable of setting his teammates up, while Luttenegger leads the team in helpers and is also a pest on the defensive end. They'll look to push the tempo and try and force turnovers to spark their offense.</p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2523908' first='Jaxen' last='Christiansen'] (Northeast)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2420792' first='Emerson' last='Kreinbrink'] (Northeast)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731868' first='Colby' last='Gray'] (Northeast)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2520036' first='Bryce' last='Henry'] (Mid-Prairie)<br>2027 Brooks Weber (Mid-Prairie)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1596452' first='Max' last='Griffin'] (Mediapolis)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731857' first='Will' last='Luttenegger'] (Mediapolis)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='3343951' first='Oscar' last='Cline'] (Louisa-Muscatine)<br>2028 Owen DeLong (Durant)<br>2027 Ben Feuerbach (Durant)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2754662' first='Ellis' last='Hills-Carrier'] (Columbus)</p>
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<p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p>
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<p>Regina vs. Northeast</p>
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<p>Northeast played Regina to an eight-point game way back in early December. The Rebels have the talent to play with the Regals here, but they've been inconsistent. Regina is playing really good basketball since the holiday break, winning by over 30 points a game in that stretch. They have too much size, too much athleticism, and too much talent. <strong>Regina </strong>punches their ticket to the state tournament behind a dominant effort in the paint.</p>
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