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<p><strong>The favorite: Southwest Valley</strong> is in the midst of their best season since 2012-13, when they won 22 games. The Timberwolves enter postseason play with an 18-3 record and have lost just once, the regular season finale against 2A Red Oak, since the holiday break. [player_tooltip player_id='1765523' first='Cael' last='Hogan'] (17.3, 5.1 assists, 4.3 steals) leads a trio of double-figure scorers in the backcourt, joined by Wyatt Mendenhall (14.8, 4.0 assists, 3.3 steals) and [player_tooltip player_id='3218248' first='Walker' last='Bissell'] (12.3, 4.0 assists, 4.0 steals). As evidenced by those stat lines, all three of them are capable of setting the table for their teammates, and all three are menaces on the defensive end. The Wolves do a great job forcing turnovers (14.9 steals per game) and limiting them (8.6), a great recipe for success in postseason play.</p>
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<p><strong>The biggest threat:</strong> The third-seeded team in the district, <strong>East Mills</strong>, will have to travel to Bedford for their district semifinal game, but the Wolverines and Bulldogs have played three times this season, with East Mills holding a 2-1 edge, including two wins in the last three weeks. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2906418' first='Mason' last='Camden'] (23.2, 4.4 assists) has been fantastic this season, scoring from all three levels as well as leading the team in assists and steals. Freshman guard Beau Burdic (14.9, 42.4 3P%) is the team's top perimeter shooting threat, and sophomore guard Zayne Graybill (6.7, 37.9 3P%) gives them another floor spacer. It's rare to see a 1A team with as much shooting as the Wolverines have, knocking down 36.4% of their 3-point attempts on the season, and the 3-point line can be a huge difference maker. </p>
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<p><strong>The dark horse: Bedford</strong>, as the result of being the #2 seed in the district, will get to host the semifinal matchup against East Mills, which is obviously a huge edge. Junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='3343950' first='Quentin' last='Dalton'] (21.4, 53.3 FG%) is a big-time scorer who can take over games on both ends of the floor, while the trio of Hayden Riedel (11.7, 6.5 rebounds), Camden Powell (9.6, 7.3 rebounds), and Ashton Nally (5.3, 6.0 rebounds) does a nice job controlling the glass. Bedford obviously has a ton of familiarity with East Mills, and they've been stellar defensively, allowing just 32.3 points per game (albeit against a schedule that ranks 129th in Class 1A).</p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765523' first='Cael' last='Hogan'] (Southwest Valley)<br>2026 Wyatt Mendenhall (Southwest Valley)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='3218248' first='Walker' last='Bissell'] (Southwest Valley)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2906418' first='Mason' last='Camden'] (East Mills)<br>2029 Beau Burdic (East Mills)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='3343950' first='Quentin' last='Dalton'] (Bedford)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='3343952' first='AJ' last='Clarke'] (Murray)<br>2026 Owen Whittington (Diagonal)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2853953' first='Peyton' last='Amdor'] (Riverside)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='3218251' first='Cole' last='Jeppesen'] (Riverside)<br>2026 Brodee Sowers (Stanton)<br>2027 Gabe Staley (Hamburg)<br>2026 Mason Reed (Fremont-Mills)<br>2026 Anders Langille (Fremont-Mills)</p>
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<p><strong>The favorite: </strong>Things couldn't set up much better for the top-ranked team in 1A, <strong>St. Edmond</strong>. The next highest ranked team at BC Moore in the substate is Southwest Valley at #20, and the highest ranked team in this district is Ankeny Christian, at #23. The Gaels are a massive favorite to come out of this district. They reached the semifinals last season, brought back a majority of that roster, and have lost just twice - to a 3A Clear Lake team that has spent the entire season ranked, and to Bishop Garrigan by two, a team that has been ranked inside the top-5 in 1A almost all year. They avenged the Clear Lake loss, and may get a chance to avenge the Garrigan setback in Des Moines. Senior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1907683' first='Hunter' last='Horn'] (26.4, 9.0 rebounds) is the school's all-time leading scorer, a dominant 6-4 combo forward who can score inside and out. [player_tooltip player_id='2517050' first='Carson' last='Bargfrede'] (14.1, 39.8 3P%) has emerged as a reliable second scoring threat and has greatly improved as a perimeter shooter, while [player_tooltip player_id='2887801' first='Jakob' last='Koopman'] (9.5, 8.8 rebounds), Grant Galles (7.5), and [player_tooltip player_id='2887821' first='Jack' last='McElroy'] (4.2, 6.4 assists) round out a strong starting five. Horn is far-and-away the best player in the substate, one of the top three players in 1A, and St. Ed shouldn't have many issues getting through this bracket.</p>
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<p><strong>The biggest threat: </strong>The most likely team to come out of the bottom of the bracket is <strong>Ankeny Christian</strong>, who just beat likely semifinal opponent Southeast Warren, 66-59, a week ago. The Eagles can be potent offensively, averaging 73.5 points per game behind four players who average in double digits. Junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='3344417' first='Marcus' last='Pedersen'] (15.1, 63.1 FG%) leads the attack, while [player_tooltip player_id='2906492' first='Jed' last='Rood'] (13.6, 43.2 3P%) and Kade Clarkson (10.2, 42.4 3P%) give them some perimeter shooting. They like to press, cause turnovers, and get out in transition whenever possible, but that'll be easier said than done against St. Edmond.</p>
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<p><strong>The dark horse(s): Southeast Warren</strong> has four players who average in double figures, led by senior guards [player_tooltip player_id='2496427' first='Jamison' last='Ewing'] (15.6), [player_tooltip player_id='2886812' first='Lucas' last='Dirkx'] (15.6), and Reece Youmans (14.9). All three are capable of playing on or off the ball and controlling the game with the ball in their hands. The Warhawks pound the offensive glass hard, pulling down nearly 15 second chances per game, which will be huge against ACA in a district semifinal rematch.</p>
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<p><strong>Earlham </strong>got off to a strong 7-0 start, but the Cardinals have gone just 5-9 since the holiday break. However, a majority of those games came against 2A and 3A competition, so they won't be intimidated if they get past Colo-Nesco and see St. Ed in the semifinals. [player_tooltip player_id='2479688' first='Griffin' last='Messer'] (17.0) and [player_tooltip player_id='3343988' first='Brady' last='Reynolds'] (10.5, 4.6 assists) headline the group that made 185 3-pointers during the regular season, second in 1A. If the Cardinals get hot early and put some pressure on St. Ed, anything can happen. </p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1907683' first='Hunter' last='Horn'] (St. Edmond)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2517050' first='Carson' last='Bargfrede'] (St. Edmond)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2887801' first='Jakob' last='Koopman'] (St. Edmond)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='3344417' first='Marcus' last='Pedersen'] (Ankeny Christian)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2906492' first='Jed' last='Rood'] (Ankeny Christian)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2496427' first='Jamison' last='Ewing'] (Southeast Warren)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2886812' first='Lucas' last='Dirkx'] (Southeast Warren)<br>2026 Reece Youmans (Southeast Warren)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2479688' first='Griffin' last='Messer'] (Earlham)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3343988' first='Brady' last='Reynolds'] (Earlham)<br>2026 Bo Starr (AGWSR)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3255082' first='Brady' last='Handsaker'] (Colo-Nesco)<br>2027 Jensen Waigand (East Union)</p>
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<p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p>
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<p>Southwest Valley vs. St. Edmond</p>
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<p>Southwest Valley has had a really nice season, but the Association gave <strong>St. Edmond </strong>a pretty clear path to Des Moines in this substate. The Gaels should cruise through district play, win this substate final comfortably, and get to the Casey's Center where they'll be one of the favorites to win it all.</p>
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