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<p><strong>The favorite: </strong>Just like conference rival ADM over in Substate 6, <strong>Ballard </strong>is a massive favorite here. The top-ranked Bombers have both the third-ranked scoring offense (72.4) and third-ranked scoring defense (43.0) in the class, one of only two teams (Knoxville) to boast top-5 ranks in both. Their lone loss came on January 30, by five, against ADM, and only one other game, a season-opening win over 4A Norwalk, has been decided by single digits. Simply put, Ballard has been a juggernaut. Junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='2419714' first='Evan' last='Abbott'] (19.5) leads an efficient, potent attack. An Ankeny Centennial transfer, he has good size on the wing and is capable of scoring from all three levels, posting 55-42-76 shooting splits. Senior point guard [player_tooltip player_id='1765518' first='Jude' last='Gibson'] (16.2, 4.8 assists, 3.7 steals), a four-year starter, is having his best year ever, putting up great efficiency numbers of his own (51-42-77). He's a menace on the defensive end, one of the best on-ball defenders in the state. Junior [player_tooltip player_id='2419750' first='Parker' last='Miller'] (11.7) is an athletic, long combo forward who can score inside and out and is a really nice tertiary piece. The Bombers come at you in waves, constantly applying different pressure looks, and if you can't handle defensive intensity, good luck.</p>
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<p><strong>The biggest threat: Oskaloosa </strong>has been a bit up-and-down this season, but they have a season sweep of Pella as well as a quality win over Dallas Center-Grimes on their resume. When they're playing well, they can play with just about anyone in 3A. Junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='2757890' first='Tommy' last='North'] (15.9) is the only player averaging in double figures for the Indians, and also leads the team in assists. [player_tooltip player_id='3343990' first='Tyler' last='Edgar'] (9.4), another junior, and seniors Heavon Knox (7.1), [player_tooltip player_id='3258705' first='Ethan' last='Stek'] (7.9), and Landon Romas (6.4), round out a balanced top five. Oskaloosa prefers to play a bit slower tempo, averaging 58.5 points per game, and they'll need to protect the ball and drag the game to a crawl if they're going to put some pressure on Ballard.</p>
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<p><strong>The dark horse: Winterset </strong>is the other contender to come out of the bottom of the bracket. The Huskies 2-3 zone can give teams some issues, and they have a very balanced group of scorers, with six players averaging between 5.4 and 9.9 points per game, led by seniors [player_tooltip player_id='2488765' first='Jake' last='Hall'] (9.9) and Jace Bellamy (9.7, 6.5 rebounds). The Huskies were swept by Ballard in the regular season, losing by 36 and 32 points, so it would be a really big upset if they were to knock the Bombers off, but crazy things can happen in a one-game setting.</p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765518' first='Jude' last='Gibson'] (Ballard)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419714' first='Evan' last='Abbott'] (Ballard)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419750' first='Parker' last='Miller'] (Ballard)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731749' first='Easton' last='Ersland'] (Ballard)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3255116' first='Mojoe' last='Nybong'] (Ballard)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2757890' first='Tommy' last='North'] (Oskaloosa)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='3343990' first='Tyler' last='Edgar'] (Oskaloosa)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3258705' first='Ethan' last='Stek'] (Oskaloosa)<br>2026 Heavon Knox (Oskaloosa)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2488765' first='Jake' last='Hall'] (Winterset)<br>2026 Jace Bellamy (Winterset)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2478778' first='Jackson' last='Baer'] (Winterset)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978133' first='Max' last='Town'] (Des Moines Christian)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2523885' first='Ajay' last='Bakke'] (Des Moines Christian)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2530654' first='Davis' last='Tokheim'] (Des Moines Christian)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='2979803' first='Isaiah' last='Slaughter'] (Newton)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2754714' first='Trey' last='Osterhaus'] (Carlisle)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419752' first='Hayden' last='Schulte'] (Carlisle)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='3343974' first='Coyce' last='Bertran'] (Webster City)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731902' first='Dylan' last='Weisskopf'] (Williamsburg)</p>
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<p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p>
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<p>Oskaloosa at Ballard</p>
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<p>Oskaloosa has had a nice season, and have some pieces to carry some real momentum into next year, but they're probably no match for a <strong>Ballard</strong> team that has absolutely blasted teams this season. The Bombers look like they're on a mission, and they're not going to be denied here.</p>
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