Substate Preview: 4A-2

<!-- wp:image {"id":1797503,"sizeSlug":"full","linkDestination":"media"} --> <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/02/4A-2.png"><img src="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/02/4A-2.png" alt="" class="wp-image-1797503" /></a></figure> <!-- /wp:image --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The favorite: </strong>This is one of the trickiest substates in 4A. The #1 seed, Centennial, has six losses, but five of them are to Valley, Northwest, or Waukee, teams that have been ranked in the top 4 in the state for a majority of the season. Cedar Falls has the best player in the substate, Iowa City West is finally healthy and starting to play pretty good basketball and has a really talented roster, and Dowling Catholic split with Centennial, and like the Jaguars, has played a loaded schedule. In a group that is separated by very little, we're going to side with the team that has the best player and make <strong>Cedar Falls</strong> the favorite here. The Tigers are led by senior wing [player_tooltip player_id='956870' first='Dallas' last='Bear'] (19.8, 9.4 rebounds, 37.8 3P%). The future Augustana (SD) sharpshooter has great size at 6-8, a pure stroke, and has really improved as an all-around scorer this year. Junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='1171693' first='Cade' last='Courbat'] (12.8, 2.7 blocks) is an athletic, rim-protecting big man who can provide a ton of versatility on the defensive end, and sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id='1199979' first='Anthony' last='Galvin'] (12.5, 41.1 3P%) has had some ridiculous games this year as a shooter. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The biggest threats: </strong>In junior point guard [player_tooltip player_id='1288923' first='Luke' last='Winkel'] (17.0, 5.3 assists), <strong>Centennial</strong> has one of the most improved players in the state and the type of dynamic guard who can absolutely take over a game in the blink of an eye and carry his team for long stretches of time as a scorer and facilitator. A quick guard with a great feel for the game, he's at his best when he's playing downhill, but he's a good enough shooter that it's a weapon that needs to be respected. Bob Fontana always has good defensive teams, and this is no exception, with the Jaguars allowing 52.6 points a game, good for 12th in the class. [player_tooltip player_id='1240076' first='Evan' last='Bryan'] (9.9), a lengthy senior wing, [player_tooltip player_id='1751094' first='Nick' last='Vaske'] (9.9), a quick junior guard, and [player_tooltip player_id='1256299' first='Chase' last='Schutty'] (5.6, 6.9 rebounds), a physical junior forward, are all big parts of that excellent defensive unit. Winkel is one of the best players in the substate, and as we mentioned before, of their six losses, five have come to the best of the best teams in the state, and they've pretty much cruised against everyone else (in 15 non-Waukee/Northwest/Valley losses, they've posted a +16.6 point differential).</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Iowa City West</strong> got off to a strong 6-1 start to the season before dropping back-to-back games in early January following an injury to standout junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='1171670' first='Kareem' last='Earl'] (12.1, 50.4 FG%). Earl missed eight games, in which the Trojans went just 2-6, with the six losses coming by a combined 16 points. In total this year, five of the Trojans' nine losses have come by three or fewer points, so they've been extremely close to being a #1 seed in their own substate. Sophomore forward [player_tooltip player_id='1381414' first='Jack' last='McCaffery'] (17.4, 7.6 rebounds, 3.8 blocks) is having a breakout sophomore year, showing why he's so highly regarded nationally. A 6-8 forward who can score inside and out, protect the rim, and create plays for others, he's the type of player who can dominate games on both ends. [player_tooltip player_id='1376672' first='Jacob' last='Koch'] (9.7, 38.5 3P%) is a good shooter, and fellow junior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1256297' first='TaeVeon' last='Stevens'] (9.6) can be streaky, but he's a talented offensive weapon who can create shots for himself and others. This team is dangerous, and it shouldn't surprise anyone if they're playing for a chance to get to Des Moines. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The dark horse: </strong>Few teams in the state will be more prepared for postseason play than <strong>Dowling Catholic</strong>, who are probably ready to get away from the CIML powers that they have to play on a nightly basis. Senior guard [player_tooltip player_id='1288853' first='Andrew' last='Mauro'] (12.0) is a tough, physical guard who can score from all three levels, and junior [player_tooltip player_id='1378073' first='Joey' last='Coppola'] (11.0) has really started to come on strong as the season has progressed. The Maroons don't shoot it well (39-30-63 shooting splits), but this is a typical tough, defensive-minded Maroons team that is going to be an absolute bear to play in the postseason. They play the type of game that nobody has any fun preparing for, and they've gone through the gauntlet of the CIML schedule and won't be intimidated by Cedar Falls in the semifinals. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to watch</span><br>2023 [player_tooltip player_id='956870' first='Dallas' last='Bear'], Cedar Falls<br>2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1171693' first='Cade' last='Courbat'], Cedar Falls<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1199979' first='Anthony' last='Galvin'], Cedar Falls<br>2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1288923' first='Luke' last='Winkel'], Centennial<br>2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1240076' first='Evan' last='Bryan'], Centennial<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1381414' first='Jack' last='McCaffery'], Iowa City West<br>2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1171670' first='Kareem' last='Earl'], Iowa City West<br>2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1240079' first='Makelle' last='Taylor'], Prairie<br>2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1376680' first='Reid' last='Burkle'], Prairie<br>2023 [player_tooltip player_id='1288853' first='Andrew' last='Mauro'], Dowling Catholic<br>2024 [player_tooltip player_id='1378073' first='Joey' last='Coppola'], Dowling Catholic<br>2023 Javion Jondle, Fort Dodge</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph {"fontSize":"medium"} --> <p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Centennial vs. Cedar Falls</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>It seems like it's the year of the CIML. The Des Moines area has been where the majority of the power around the state has come from, and we'll continue to go with that here. <strong>Centennial</strong> draws up a plan to limit Bear's effectiveness, and the Jaguars grind out a win to send them to the state tournament for the second time in school history (opened in 2013-14).</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph -->