Substate Preview: 3A-7

[player_tooltip player_id="1158412" first="Levi" last="Gurwell"] The favorite: Four of the top 10 teams in BC Moore’s 3A power rankings reside in this substate. Are they actually four of the top 10 teams in the state? We don’t necessarily agree, but there…

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[player_tooltip player_id="1158412" first="Levi" last="Gurwell"]

The favorite: Four of the top 10 teams in BC Moore’s 3A power rankings reside in this substate. Are they actually four of the top 10 teams in the state? We don’t necessarily agree, but there has been some uproar around the state with this “Group of Death”. Winterset has been one of the hottest teams in the state since the holiday break, winning 11 of 13 games, including quality wins over Ballard (twice), Van Meter, Harlan, North Polk, and Bondurant-Farrar. The Huskies have arguably the best backcourt trio in the class in seniors Levi Gurwell Levi Gurwell 6'0" | SG Winterset | 2022 State IA (16.7, 3.2 assists) and Dawson Forgy Dawson Forgy 5'11" | PG Winterset | 2022 State IA (11.4, 3.5 assists), and junior Brayden Dinkla Brayden Dinkla 6'0" | PG Winterset | 2023 State IA (9.5, 6.7 assists). Gurwell is a versatile three-level scorer with good footwork, Forgy is a powerful and quick guard who thrives playing downhill, and Dinkla is a two-way threat who is also swiping 3.2 steals a game. Forward Nathan Avery Nathan Avery 6'3" | SF Winterset | 2022 State IA (7.3, 40.7 3P%) can stretch the floor a bit, and Blake Feuring (6.8) and Charlie McDonald Charlie McDonald 6'2" | SF Winterset | 2023 State IA (6.2) provide some additional scoring. Guard play wins in the postseason, and the Huskies have the best guard play in the substate.

[player_tooltip player_id="962617" first="Noah" last="Allen"]

The biggest threats: Defending champion Pella has had an up-and-down season, but won three straight heading into postseason play and may be finally putting it all together. The Dutch brought back several key contributors from that championship team, led by senior wing Karl Miller Karl Miller 6'4" | SF Pella | 2022 State IA (15.2, 39.3 3P%) and guard Noah Allen Noah Allen 5'10" | PG Pella | 2022 State IA (14.5, 39.0 3P%) who pace an offense that likes to play up-tempo and get a number of players involved. Parker Elder Parker Elder 6'4" | SF Pella | 2022 State IA (9.1, 4.0 assists) has stepped into a lead guard role this season and played well, and Keegan Hansen (7.8) and Preston Rowe (6.8) have contributed as well. The Dutch haven’t shot it as well from 3 as a team as they have in recent years, but their experience could end up being a difference-maker as they progress through this wide-open substate.

[player_tooltip player_id="956874" first="Colby" last="Collison"]

Junior wings Colby Collison Colby Collison 6'4" | SF Bondurant-Farrar | 2023 State IA (18.4) and Jaxson Fried Jaxson Fried 6'6" | SF Bondurant- Farrar | 2023 State IA (13.1) lead a Bondurant-Farrar team that has posted strong wins over Winterset, Ballard, and North Polk this season. The Blue Jays are actually the highest-ranked team in the aforementioned BC Moore power rankings and have been the best defensive team in the substate, allowing 50.6 points a game. Both Collison and Fried are long wings who can score from all three levels at an efficient clip, posting combined 53-43-72 shooting splits. That tandem is good enough to get this team through the substate.

[player_tooltip player_id="682289" first="Jevin" last="Sullivan"]

The other highly-regarded team in this substate is North Polk, who had lost five straight games down the stretch before beating Dallas Center-Grimes on Tuesday night. The Comets have posted some really strong wins, but also have questionable losses to Gilbert and Boone. Senior wing Jevin Sullivan Jevin Sullivan 6'5" | SG North Polk | 2022 State IA (17.3, 8.2 rebounds) is a strong, physical wing who can get to the bucket and stretch the floor. His efficiency numbers have dipped this year, but he’s a talented player who can take over games at any time. He’ll play his college ball at Kansas City. A long and athletic frontline is the focal point of a defensive team that has been really strong and will frustrate teams with their athleticism and physicality. Of the four top contenders in the substate, North Polk’s peak might be the highest, but their floor is also probably the lowest.

The dark horse: Clarke has put together their best season since they went 19-3 in 2006-07 behind the dominant play of sophomore wing Jack Cooley Jack Cooley 6'5" | PF Clarke | 2024 State IA (20.2, 7.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists), a stat-sheet stuffing 6-5 athlete who can dominate games on both ends of the floor. Fellow sophomore Bo Otto Bo Otto 6'0" | PG Clarke | 2024 State IA (9.0, 4.5 assists) has provided a solid presence in the backcourt, a good ball-handler who doesn’t turn it over, and Kamis Bullis (10.1, 9.2 rebounds) is an efficient scorer in the paint. The Indians share the ball well and pound the offensive glass (13.2 a game), which helps offset their poor perimeter shooting a bit. They play against primarily 2A teams during the year, with their only three games against 3A competition coming via a season sweep of Knoxville and a win over Saydel, which could be a concern, and is the reason that they are a #5 seed despite a 15-5 record.

SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION

Winterset vs. Pella

You could go a number of different directions in this substate, as any of the top four seeds are viable contenders to make it to the state tournament. We’ll go with the chalk and take the top-seeded teams to make it to the substate final, where the Huskies and Dutch meet in a fun, up-tempo game. The strong guards of Winterset, and the slightly hotter team, lead the Huskies to a win and a trip to the state tournament.