Substate Preview: 3A-5

<p><a href="https://prephoops-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/ph/uploads/2022/02/3A-5.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1384057" src="https://prephoops-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/ph/uploads/2022/02/3A-5.png" alt="" width="739" height="423" /></a></p> <p><strong>The favorite: Marion</strong> headlines a substate that is probably the weakest among the eight in Class 3A from top-to-bottom. The Wolves are 8-3 since the holiday break behind the strong play of junior guard [player_tooltip player_id="956878" first="Brayson" last="Laube"] (19.5, 45.1 3P%). A 6-2 guard who can fill it up from all three levels, Laube grew and gained more athleticism over the summer, and that has translated to the high school season, where he has become a dynamic scorer and facilitator who can take over games. Fellow junior guard [player_tooltip player_id="1367405" first="Alex" last="Mota"] (8.9, 2.9 assists) gives them more athleticism on the perimeter, while Boede Rahe (6.0) and [player_tooltip player_id="1158501" first="Cael" last="Hodges"] (7.8) are undersized but physical players in the paint. A deep and strong defensive team, they split their season series with possible semifinal opponent Mount Vernon (the last meeting was a 22-point Marion win) and beat possible substate final opponent Clear Creek-Amana by 16 two weeks ago.</p> <p><strong>The biggest threats: Fort Madison</strong> was the last remaining undefeated team in 3A, getting off to a 15-0 start before dropping four straight games as they dealt with some illnesses that were going around the team. The Bloodhounds have held 14 of their opponents to 50 points or fewer with their strong, athletic, and physical style on both ends of the floor. They pull down 12 offensive rebounds a game for an offensive rebounding rate of 41.6%, led by senior forward [player_tooltip player_id="962688" first="Dayton" last="Davis"] (18.9, 12.3 rebounds), a walking double-double who finishes around the rim and is an impact player on the defensive end (4.2 steals a game). Davis pulls down 6.3 offensive rebounds a game on his own, using his physicality and athleticism to outwork opponents on the glass. Senior guard [player_tooltip player_id="1155945" first="Miles" last="Dear"] (17.3, 4.3 assists) is the top perimeter option, a quick guard who can score from all three levels, and like Davis, he’s a pest on the defensive end, averaging 2.7 steals a night. The Bloodhounds don’t shoot it well from 3 (26.6%), but they force a lot of turnovers and pound the offensive glass to gain extra possessions. Their physical play could cause issues for the rest of the teams in the substate. </p> <p>The other threat here would be <strong>Clear Creek-Amana</strong>. The Clippers have had an up-and-down year, getting off to a 9-1 start, then losing six of their next 10 games. The difference has been on the defensive end, as they allowed 48.8 points a game in those first 10 games, but are giving up 56.9 a night in the next 10. If they want to make some noise in this substate, it’ll start on the defensive end. Offensively, they’re paced by a pair of high-level shooters in seniors [player_tooltip player_id="1352883" first="Ben" last="Swails"] (16.8, 44.7 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id="1158465" first="Kyle" last="Schrepfer"] (13.7, 38.8 3P%), who can carry this team offensively with their ability to stretch the floor and open up opportunities for others. Grant Kruse (9.7) and Harrison Rosenberg (7.3) have been solid role players for the Clippers, both solid ball-handlers and decision-makers with some length, and this is a team that rebounds the ball well. If they can get back to the defense they played in the first half of the year, they could be dangerous. </p> <p><strong>The dark horse:</strong> Speaking of defense, <strong>Mount Vernon</strong> has been really solid on that end of the floor this season, allowing 47.8 points a game, good for fifth in 3A. The Mustangs have been playing a slower style than they have the previous few years, grinding games down and the results have been mixed. They own quality wins over Marion, Xavier, and Beckman Catholic, but have also had seven games in which they’ve scored 37 points or fewer. They’re a young team that has three sophomores and two juniors among their top five scorers, so this is a good building year for them. [player_tooltip player_id="1376688" first="Joe" last="Rhomberg"] (10.8, 8.1 rebounds) and [player_tooltip player_id="1376710" first="Evan" last="Brase"] (9.3, 6.2 rebounds) are strong on the glass, good athletes who compete hard, while the return of sophomore guard [player_tooltip player_id="1171688" first="Jackson" last="Kutcher"] (9.0) could be the boost that the Mustangs need on the offensive end, a sharpshooting guard who can really fill it up. He missed the first 18 games but has gone 6-9 from 3 since his return two games ago. </p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Players to watch</span><br /> 2023 [player_tooltip player_id="956878" first="Brayson" last="Laube"], Marion<br /> 2023 [player_tooltip player_id="1367405" first="Alex" last="Mota"], Marion<br /> 2022 [player_tooltip player_id="962688" first="Dayton" last="Davis"], Fort Madison<br /> 2022 [player_tooltip player_id="1155945" first="Miles" last="Dear"], Fort Madison<br /> 2022 [player_tooltip player_id="1352883" first="Ben" last="Swails"], Clear Creek-Amana<br /> 2022 [player_tooltip player_id="1158465" first="Kyle" last="Schrepfer"], Clear Creek-Amana<br /> 2024 [player_tooltip player_id="1376688" first="Joe" last="Rhomberg"], Mount Vernon<br /> 2024 [player_tooltip player_id="1171688" first="Jackson" last="Kutcher"], Mount Vernon<br /> 2023 [player_tooltip player_id="1167688" first="Max" last="Weaton"], Fairfield<br /> 2023 [player_tooltip player_id="1167747" first="JJ" last="Lane"], Fairfield<br /> 2022 [player_tooltip player_id="1158484" first="Dewon" last="Trent"], Mount Pleasant<br /> 2022 [player_tooltip player_id="1158485" first="Keaton" last="Flaherty"], Oskaloosa<br /> 2022 [player_tooltip player_id="1352939" first="MJ" last="Davis"], Keokuk</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3 style="text-align: center;">SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</h3> <p style="text-align: center;">Marion vs. Fort Madison</p> <p>Both of these teams have scuffled a bit down the stretch, but we’ll side with <strong>Marion</strong>, who will have the best guard on the floor in [player_tooltip player_id="956878" first="Brayson" last="Laube"]. The athleticism of the Wolves backcourt proves to be too much to handle, and Marion punches a ticket to Des Moines. </p>