Class 1A Substate Final Preview

Substate 1: Newell-Fonda (22-2) vs. Remsen, St. Mary’s (23-0) at Sioux Center We’ve got a fairly interesting contrast in styles in this game, as St. Mary’s loves to play strong defense and suffocate teams in the halfcourt with their athleticism, length, and physicality, while Newell-Fonda looks to speed the game up, force turnovers via the press, and get up as many shots as possible. The Mustangs average nearly 13 shot attempts per game more than the Hawks do, which is a good way to show the major difference in styles. St. Mary’s has held four of their last five opponents to 28 or fewer points and is allowing just 33.5 points a game on the season, while Newell-Fonda averages 74.3 points a game. The Hawks are looking for their sixth consecutive state tournament appearance and are led by junior wing [player_tooltip player_id="1167735" first="Jaxon" last="Bunkers"] (12.9), who leads a balanced attack that sees six players averaging at least 7.2 points a game. This team does an excellent job sharing the ball (18.0 assists), limiting turnovers (7.1), and scoring efficiently (55-43-63 shooting splits). Their balance makes them difficult to defend, and they have a ton of experience in big games. Newell-Fonda counters with junior wing [player_tooltip player_id="1167701" first="Carter" last="Sievers"] (19.6) and guard [player_tooltip player_id="962677" first="Trey" last="Jungers"] (12.5, 4.3 assists), who lead a potent offensive attack that loves to get up and down. The Mustangs average 15.0 steals a game, and thrive on their ability to get teams sped up and making poor decisions. That is easier said than done against this St. Mary’s team. The ’Stangs will be looking for some revenge after St. Mary’s ended their season last year, and this should be one of the best substate finals of the night. Our pick: Remsen, St. Mary’s   [caption id="attachment_1147247" align="alignright" width="300"]<a href="https://prephoops-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/ph/uploads/2021/03/Wyatt-Helming-crop-2786x1829-1615315103-crop-446x293-1615315117.jpg"><img class="wp-image-1147247 size-medium" src="https://prephoops-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/ph/uploads/2021/03/Wyatt-Helming-crop-2786x1829-1615315103-crop-446x293-1615315117-300x197.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="197" /></a> [player_tooltip player_id="1158420" first="Wyatt" last="Helming"][/caption] Substate 2: Lake Mills (23-1) vs. Dunkerton (22-3) at Clear Lake Dunkerton got revenge for a blowout regular-season loss to Newman Catholic to get to this substate final, and that Newman Catholic team beat Lake Mills late in the season as well by 13. The transitive property obviously doesn’t apply to basketball games, but it is something to note. These two teams have been absolutely dominant on both ends of the floor all year, with Dunkerton posting a +27.0 point differential, and Lake Mills owning a +30.9 differential. The Raiders are led by their dynamic junior tandem of wing [player_tooltip player_id="1367394" first="Preston" last="Gillespie"] (24.0, 7.9 rebounds, 62.7 FG%) and guard [player_tooltip player_id="1167715" first="Casey" last="Gardner"] (16.2, 9.1 assists). Gillespie recently set the school record for points in a season, and Gardner’s name is all over the record books for his assist totals. [player_tooltip player_id="1158505" first="Kaden" last="Behrens"] (14.1) provides some size and physicality in the paint, which will be crucial against a Lake Mills team that has some size. Senior forward [player_tooltip player_id="1158420" first="Wyatt" last="Helming"] (18.0, 9.7 rebounds, 3.2 blocks) leads the Bulldogs, a versatile 6-7 combo forward who can score inside and out and defend multiple positions. Expect him to get the first crack at Gillespie, but the ’Dogs do have a number of strong, lengthy options to throw at the Raiders’ star scorer. In what should be an excellent matchup with Gardner, [player_tooltip player_id="1158456" first="Bennett" last="Berger"] (14.0, 6.5 assists), who holds a better than 6-1 assist-to-turnover ratio leads the Lake Mills backcourt, while Denton Kingland (10.9, 39.3 3P%) provides some perimeter shooting. This one should be a ton of fun, but in the end, it’s the number of options that Lake Mills can throw at Dunkerton’s scorers that gives them the slight edge in what should be an outstanding high school basketball game. Our pick: Lake Mills   [caption id="attachment_1147251" align="alignright" width="300"]<a href="https://prephoops-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/ph/uploads/2021/03/Austin-Hilmer-new-crop-2786x1829-1615315146-crop-536x352-1615315160.jpg"><img class="wp-image-1147251 size-medium" src="https://prephoops-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/ph/uploads/2021/03/Austin-Hilmer-new-crop-2786x1829-1615315146-crop-536x352-1615315160-300x197.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="197" /></a> [player_tooltip player_id="682273" first="Austin" last="Hilmer"][/caption] Substate 3: North Linn (23-1) vs. Edgewood-Colesburg (21-3) at West Delaware These teams split their regular-season series, with Edgewood-Colesburg ending a massive Lynx winning streak with a 52-47 win before the holiday break, and the Lynx getting their revenge with a 61-47 win on January 29. In the first meeting, North Linn shot just 29.8% from the floor, 15-27 from the free-throw line, and got outrebounded 35-21. In the second matchup, they shot 48.8%, 14-24 from the stripe (still not great), and won the rebounding battle 29-22. The long and experienced Vikings from Ed-Co know that they have what it takes to beat the Lynx if they can follow their gameplan, limit turnovers, and pound the glass, taking advantage of their strength edge. If this gets into a running game, advantage Lynx. Ed-Co’s top eight scorers are all seniors, and this group has been building towards this year for a long time. Mason Ashline (13.8) and Jack Wiskus (10.7), a pair of big-bodied, physical wings, lead a balanced attack that pounds the offensive glass (12.8 a game) and forces turnovers (14.0 steals) with their length and athleticism. North Linn wants to run, run, and then run some more, while mixing in some traps along the way. The Lynx are led by senior point guard [player_tooltip player_id="682273" first="Austin" last="Hilmer"] (20.1, 8.0 assists, 4.4 steals), the quick focal point of their attack on both ends of the floor. [player_tooltip player_id="1167704" first="Tate" last="Haughenbury"] (15.5) and [player_tooltip player_id="962658" first="Cade" last="Haughenbury"] (10.8) are a pair of highly efficient forwards who benefit playing alongside the dynamic Hilmer, routinely getting easy looks at the rim, and [player_tooltip player_id="962641" first="Dylan" last="Kurt"] (13.4, 40.3 3P%) is the team’s top shooting threat. The Lynx are experienced in big games and are capable of hanging a 20-2 run on anyone in the state in the blink of an eye. Their experience and explosiveness leads them back to the state tournament, where they’ll be considered one of the top two favorites to take home the title. Our pick: North Linn   [caption id="attachment_1290446" align="alignright" width="300"]<a href="https://prephoops-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/ph/uploads/2021/09/54-William-Kiburis.jpg"><img class="wp-image-1290446 size-medium" src="https://prephoops-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/ph/uploads/2021/09/54-William-Kiburis-300x200.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="200" /></a> [player_tooltip player_id="1167671" first="William" last="Kiburis"][/caption] Substate 4: Gladbrook-Reinbeck (23-1) vs. Bellevue (12-12) at Clear Creek-Amana One of these teams was expected to be in this game, the other was the fourth-seeded team in their district. But none of that matters on Saturday night, as one of these teams is 32 minutes away from a trip to the state tournament. Gladbrook-Reinbeck has rolled through their competition this season, winning games by an average of 24.0 points a game with their lone loss coming to Aplington-Parkersburg, one of the top teams in 2A. The Rebels are led by do-it-all junior point guard [player_tooltip player_id="1167671" first="William" last="Kiburis"] (21.7, 7.8 rebounds, 7.3 assists), a nightly triple-double threat who can dominate games even when he isn’t scoring. But he’s far from alone, with three others averaging in double-figures: [player_tooltip player_id="1158493" first="Tristen" last="Sanford-Anders"] (14.9, 9.2 rebounds), Caleb Egesdal (10.9, 43.7 3P%), and Luke Riffey (10.4). Sanford-Anders is a physical 6-4 forward who controls the glass and scores efficiently, while Egesdal and Riffey help space the floor with their shooting. Bellevue entered postseason play with a 9-12 record but have rattled off three straight wins, including upsets of Easton Valley and Springville. The Comets have gotten to this point behind the other-worldly play of junior guard Jensen Wedeking (12.0), who has been unstoppable in their three postseason wins, averaging 23.0 points on 52.9% shooting along with 8.7 rebounds. He was averaging 10.5 points a game coming into the playoffs, but has exploded under the bright lights. [player_tooltip player_id="1158506" first="Colby" last="Sieverding"] (13.2) is the team’s leading scorer, and Jackson Mueller (7.7, 7.8 rebounds) will need to keep Sanford-Anders off the glass if the Comets want to continue their magical run. Our pick: Gladbrook-Reinbeck   [caption id="attachment_1290563" align="alignright" width="300"]<a href="https://prephoops-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/ph/uploads/2021/09/152-Sawyer-Nelson.jpg"><img class="wp-image-1290563 size-medium" src="https://prephoops-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/ph/uploads/2021/09/152-Sawyer-Nelson-300x200.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="200" /></a> [player_tooltip player_id="1235044" first="Sawyer" last="Nelson"][/caption] Substate 5: Danville (22-2) vs. WACO (20-4) at Fairfield While several of the other substate finals promise to be exciting, up-tempo affairs, expect this one to be an absolute grinder between a pair of defensive-minded teams that know each other very well. Danville swept the season series, taking 43-38 and 39-37 decisions about two weeks apart from each other. Danville comes in allowing 41.0 points a game, and WACO gives up 40.5 a night. Both teams pound the offensive glass hard (12.9 a game for WACO, 12.6 Danville), and force a ton of turnovers. This probably won’t be the prettiest game, but neither team will care about that, it’s all about punching the ticket to Des Moines. Danville is led by senior guards [player_tooltip player_id="1352966" first="Drake" last="Johnson"] (14.3) and [player_tooltip player_id="962692" first="Ty" last="Carr"] (8.6), forward [player_tooltip player_id="1235044" first="Sawyer" last="Nelson"] (10.0, 9.5 rebounds), and junior wing [player_tooltip player_id="1288859" first="Caiden" last="Gourley"] (13.9). Nelson and Carr were huge in their district final win over Winfield-Mt. Union, with Carr routinely knocking down big shots, and Nelson’s work as a rim protector and on the offensive glass proving to be vital contributions. Hunter Hughes (11.9), a sophomore guard who leads the Warriors in scoring, assists, and steals, is WACO’s top option, but they have a balanced attack with six others averaging between 4.0 and 9.8 points a game. The experience of Danville proved to be a difference-maker in the district final, and it may be the difference again here, as they’re led by three seniors, while WACO’s top six s comprised of three juniors and three sophomores. This should be tight, low-scoring, and physical, but we’ll side with the team that has the more experienced option in the backcourt as the deciding factor. Our pick: Danville   Substate 6: Lynnville-Sully (18-6) vs. North Mahaska (19-5) at Oskaloosa These league rivals split their regular-season series, with North Mahaska winning 77-45 on December 10, and Lynnville-Sully getting revenge, 51-45, on January 28. In that second meeting, North Mahaska shot an uncharacteristic 29.3% from the floor, gave up 18 offensive rebounds, and was outscored 30-14 in the second half. It’s hard to imagine any of those three things happening again, which should give the edge to the Warhawks. They’re led by [player_tooltip player_id="1167743" first="Nash" last="Smith"] (20.4, 6.9 rebounds, 4.0 assists), a talented and long do-it-all wing who can score from all three levels, facilitate, and is a menace in their halfcourt trapping defense. [player_tooltip player_id="1367407" first="Lane" last="Harmon"] (14.2, 41.2 3P%) is a really good shooter who moves off the ball, and [player_tooltip player_id="1167746" first="Braden" last="Steel"] (9.6, 9.5 rebounds) is a force on the glass. Lynnville-Sully doesn’t have the firepower that the Warhawks do, but they do have balance, with four starters averaging between 9.4 and 13.7 points a game (and it would’ve been all five if [player_tooltip player_id="1167730" first="Preston" last="Rodibaugh"] wasn’t hurt). [player_tooltip player_id="1240095" first="Conner" last="Maston"] (13.7, 42.4 3P%) is the team’s leading scorer, but anyone can lead the team on a given night. They’ll need to get a big effort from [player_tooltip player_id="1376719" first="Klayton" last="Van Dyke"] (10.5, 9.5 rebounds) as a rim protector and in keeping Smith and Steel off the glass if the Hawks want to punch their ticket to the state tournament. Too much Smith on both ends of the floor, and for the first time in 16 years, the Warhawks are headed to Des Moines. Our pick: North Mahaska   [caption id="attachment_1147291" align="alignright" width="300"]<a href="https://prephoops-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/ph/uploads/2021/03/Manny-Hammonds-crop-2786x1829-1615315783-crop-507x333-1615315795.jpg"><img class="wp-image-1147291 size-medium" src="https://prephoops-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/ph/uploads/2021/03/Manny-Hammonds-crop-2786x1829-1615315783-crop-507x333-1615315795-300x197.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="197" /></a> [player_tooltip player_id="962674" first="Manny" last="Hammonds"][/caption] Substate 7: Grand View Christian (23-0) vs. St. Albert (12-11) at Dowling Catholic Grand View Christian has rolled through 1A competition this season, winning games by an average of 38.2 points a game behind a dynamic backcourt and dominant shot blocker on the defensive end. But they’ll have their work cut out for themselves against a St. Albert team that plays against primarily 3A schools during the season and really cuts their teeth against bigger teams. These teams met in last year’s substate final, a 67-65 Thunder win, and each of their three all-time meetings have been decided by single digits. The Thunder are led by their high-scoring senior backcourt of [player_tooltip player_id="962674" first="Manny" last="Hammonds"] (24.3) and [player_tooltip player_id="1141465" first="Josh" last="Baucum"] (19.3), a pair of guards who can fill it up in a hurry and force a ton of turnovers. [player_tooltip player_id="1367400" first="Josh" last="Sanderson"] (10.2, 6.2 assists) has been a good distributor and perimeter shooting threat, and junior big [player_tooltip player_id="956875" first="Daniel" last="Tobiloba"] (8.2, 14.3 rebounds, 4.6 blocks) is the ultimate eraser at the backend of the defense. St. Albert is led by a trio of double-figure scorers in Carter White (13.6), Colin Lillie (13.4), and DJ Weilage (12.2), and they do a pretty good job limiting turnovers, especially given the fact that they routinely play against bigger, more athletic schools. The size of Tobiloba in the paint is probably the difference-maker here, but this game will be a lot, lot closer than BC Moore’s 32-point spread. Our pick: Grand View Christian   Substate 8: AHSTW (23-1) vs. West Harrison (21-3) at Council Bluffs Jefferson This promises to be a very exciting game between a pair of teams looking to make their first trip to the state tournament. AHSTW put together a really strong season last year and then dropped down to 1A this season. Their lone loss this season came by 5 against Grand View Christian. The Vikings are led by their dynamic trio of scorers in juniors [player_tooltip player_id="1167687" first="Brayden" last="Lund"] (18.3, 7.2 rebounds) and [player_tooltip player_id="1167692" first="Kyle" last="Sternberg"] (16.0), and senior [player_tooltip player_id="784987" first="Raydden" last="Grobe"] (18.0). All three of them shoot above 41% from behind the arc, can put the ball on the floor, and are long players who can score from all three levels. Junior point guard [player_tooltip player_id="1240070" first="Cole" last="Scheffler"] (4.1, 4.8 assists) is an excellent floor general who gets others involved at a high clip and limits turnovers. As a team, AHSTW turns it over just 8.3 times a game. West Harrison counters with their own "Big Three" of juniors [player_tooltip player_id="1288871" first="Mason" last="King"] (15.6, 45.1 3P%), [player_tooltip player_id="1167693" first="Koleson" last="Evans"] (14.4, 9.9 rebounds), and [player_tooltip player_id="1167703" first="Sage" last="Evans"] (13.6, 13.9 rebounds, 6.4 assists). The Hawkeyes are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the state, pulling down 15.5 second chances a game. [player_tooltip player_id="1167703" first="Sage" last="Evans"] is an undersized forward but he plays with a relentless, non-stop motor and he gets others involved well. If AHSTW, which is bigger, is able to keep the Hawkeyes off the offensive glass, the Vikings should punch their first ticket to the state tournament. They’re the more dynamic team on both ends of the floor and have played a tougher schedule. Our pick: AHSTW