Postseason Preview: Class 3A, Substate 6
The favorite: No team in 3A has made or attempted as many 3s as Pella, and the Dutch have gone 6-0 this season against teams in this substate, including a 60-53 win over second seeded Ballard. The Dutch are…
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The favorite: No team in 3A has made or attempted as many 3s as Pella, and the Dutch have gone 6-0 this season against teams in this substate, including a 60-53 win over second seeded Ballard. The Dutch are back to their old style of free-flowing, up-tempo play that made them so successful in the middle part of the decade, and have four players averaging in double figures. Logan Shetterly (17.6) is the leading scorer, with Ryan Gustafson (12.0), John Oltman (10.5) and Nick DeJong (10.4) joining him in double figures. Shetterly, Gustafson and Oltman have each attempted 105+ 3-pointers, and role players Grant Nelson (6.7, 24 3PM) and Karl Miler (4.6, 20 3PM) are also quality shooters. The Dutch are one of the most explosive offenses in 3A, averaging 69 points a game, good for 5th in the class. This group has a lot of weapons, goes really deep and is going to be tough for any team in this district (where the top threats aren’t really strong defensive teams) to keep pace with.
The biggest threat: Ballard hasn’t been playing good basketball down the stretch, going just 3-7 in their last 10 games, but the Bombers are still the biggest threat to the Dutch here, as they’re definitely the most likely team to come out of the bottom of the bracket. The Bombers are the best defensive team in the substate, allowing 54.9 points a game (24th in 3A), and have seven players averaging at least 4.7 points a game, led by Connor Drew (16.2) and Max Olsan (11.5). Drew does most of his damage inside the arc, while Olsan and Chase Winterboer (7.9) are the team’s top perimeter threats. They’ll have their hands full trying to keep pace with Pella in the substate final, and will likely look to use Drew to try and slow the game down.
Collin ListerTwo other contenders: The winner of the Carlisle-Grinnell game could make Pella sweat in the semifinal. Grinnell has played the Dutch fairly tough two times this season, taking them to overtime in a 71-66 loss, then dropping a 56-44 game a few weeks ago without leading scorer Jake Hull (20.1). The 6-3 junior wing is having a huge season and is a threat to take over any game with his ability to score inside and out. AJ Wilkins (8.3) and Cole McGriff (7.4) give the Tigers a few additional shooting threats, and Grinnell is very familiar with Pella. Carlisle has played strong ball down the stretch, winning five of their last seven games, and have the most explosive scorer in the group with Collin Lister (24.9, 61 3PM). He’s a threat to drop 40 on a given night and could carry the Wildcats to three wins.
The dark horse: Knoxville has a potent scoring threat in Kieren Nichols (20.2), and have three players who have made at least 42 3s on the season in Nichols (44, 42.7%), Elliott Schmidt (12.3 points, 42 3PM, 37.2%) and Tyler Vaske (8.8, 43 3PM, 37.7%). They would need that trio to get crazy hot from deep for three straight games to come out of this substate, but hey, crazier things have happened.
Players to watch
2020 Logan Shetterly, Pella
2019 Nick DeJong, Pella
2019 Ryan Gustafson, Pella
2020 John Oltman, Pella
2021 Connor Drew, Ballard
2019 Collin Lister, Carlisle
2019 Jordan Collins, Bondurant-Farrar
2020 Tyler Sansgaard, Nevada
2020 Kody Kruschwitz, Nevada
2020 Jake Hull, Grinnell
2021 Kieren Nichols, Knoxville
SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION
Pella vs. Ballard
Ballard should have no issues getting through the bottom half of this bracket, while Pella could get a game from either Grinnell or Carlisle. That said, Pella is the best team in this substate, and if they’re able to dictate the tempo, nobody is going to keep up with them. After a one-year break, the Dutch return to Des Moines.