Analyzing the playoff race
It’s hard to believe we’re down to the final weeks of the regular season, meaning almost every game has some sort of playoff implication for the teams fighting for positioning or their playoff lives. That being the case, I took…
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Continue ReadingIt’s hard to believe we’re down to the final weeks of the regular season, meaning almost every game has some sort of playoff implication for the teams fighting for positioning or their playoff lives. That being the case, I took a deep dive on the most recent power points rankings in all classes and looked at the interesting races within them.
You can click here to see the complete rankings for 5A through Class C, and click here for the rankings between Divisions I and V.
5A
There might be a deal made about the new No. 1, East Ascension, bumping previous No. 1 Ouachita down to No. 2, but there’s no guarantee that this is permanent. Ouachita has games against Ruston, Natchitoches Central, West Monroe and other quality teams ahead, plus a really good non-district schedule will keep helping its strength of schedule situation. East Ascension has the same, however, with a pair of games against McKinley and one each against Catholic (B.R.) and Madison Prep. It’s hard to see either of these teams dropping out of the top four, which is all that matters anyway – it all turns into a neutral court situation in the semifinals, after all.
I feel like the top 10 you currently see is going to remain primarily unchanged: those teams may shift around a little here and there, but I think the 10 teams that are in the top 10 right now will also end the season in the top 10. No. 11, Comeaux, isn’t a team I see unseating Lafayette or New Iberia, Walker being in the same district as Scotlandville, Terrebonne’s continued slide and other developments like that among teams in the teens make me think there isn’t a team there poised to jump up in the final three weeks.
As for the teams fighting for playoff berths, District 1 will be an interesting follow with Southwood, Parkway and Captain Shreve all somewhere in the 30s.
4A
Let’s get real with each other for a second: this is all between 1 Washington-Marion and 2 Bossier. I love that Woodlawn (Shreve.) team at No. 3, but they aren’t at that level. Neither is 4 Westgate or any other in 4A.
This might be because I’m in the Monroe area and know these teams intimately, but I’m fascinated by District 2. Not only Tioga – if it runs the table and thus able to hold onto its top 10 spot – but also teams like Neville seemingly getting a grip on itself now and others battling for playoff spots down the stretch. That’s going to be fun. I would also look out for District 7, where 27 Assumption, 28 Morgan City and 29 South Lafourche will all be battling to the death for the playoff spots they currently own.
3A
With Carroll and Wossman both owning wins over Madison, I find it hard to believe that 1 Peabody, 2 Wossman and 3 Carroll are going to dip out of the top four. (Unless Carroll loses the rematch to Wossman later this season, which could hurt the power ratings enough for that to happen.) After that, I’m curious. A couple more Madison losses could open the window for a team like 5 Ville Platte, 6 Jena or 7 Baker to sneak in there.
Here’s a couple of races to watch: First, District 4. 9 Jennings, 10 South Beauregard, 11 Iowa, 19 Westlake and 23 Iota. Combine that with District 8 – 13 Patterson, 15 North Vemilion and 18 Berwick – and the middle portion of the 3A bracket could be quite volatile in the final weeks of the season here.
2A
Madison Prep will be No. 1 and Rayville will be No. 2. This will not change, get used to it now. I’ll go a step further and say I don’t see much – other than a few unfortunately timed injuries – keeping this from being the matchup in the state championship game.
I think most of the intrigue in this class will take place in the 18 and lower range among those teams trying to create favorable first-round matchups or fight to get into the playoffs in the first place. There’s a lot of close races in there worth monitoring.
1A
The top 15 is almost entirely to be decided by the results in Districts 1 and 2 – District 1 has Lincoln Prep, Plain Dealing, Arcadia and Haynesville in the running while District 2 has Sicily Island, Delhi Charter, Delhi, Tensas and Oak Grove. I think it will pretty clearly be Lincoln Prep and Sicily Island at the top, but outside of that, those teams are going to be battling hard in these finals weeks for playoff positioning.
Class B
Zwolle is No. 1 and almost certain to stay there, so get comfortable with that.
There may be some minor shuffling in seeds in the final three weeks, but it’s hard for me to make a solid case for more than eight championship contenders in Class B, so really, we’re just playing for homecourt advantage in the quarterfinals at this point. That’s important, sure, but not so much so that I’m going to spend a ton of time on it, considering Zwolle, Hathaway and Florien have the builds of Top 28 locks anyway.
Class C
This one is pretty similar to Class B: there will be some intriguing battles in the mid-range/bottom of the class, but with 1 Summerfield, 2 Simpson and 3 Atlanta more or less assured of their respective spots and being most of a very small group of legitimate championship contenders, that’s about it.
Division I
Obviously 1 Scotlandville and 2 St. Augustine are pretty set in their respective places. 3 John Curtis and 4 St. Paul’s could have an interesting back-and-forth for those respective spots (crucial, since St. Aug is less scary than Scotlandville at this point). I’m also captivated by the 7-10 spots: 7 Brother Martin and 9 Holy Cross from District 9 paired with 8 Byrd and 10 Evangel in District 1. All four teams involved should be doing some scoreboard watching in the final weeks.
Division II
The current power ratings lead me to believe St. Thomas More is untouchable in its top seed. The biggest battles for position should be between 2 University Lab and 3 De La Salle; 6 Parkview Baptist and 7 E.D. White; and 8 Loyola Prep, 9 Ben Franklin and 10 Lusher Charter.
Division III
The battle for the final six or seven playoff spots is going to be so good. Everyone between 9 St. Charles and 15 Christian Life are within a hair of each other. This might be the most fun playoff race in the entire state – there’s so much at stake for so many teams and every game in the last three weeks should matter a pretty significant.
Division IV
Once again, a not-too-exciting championship race: it’s hard for me to see anybpdy other than 1 Lafayette Christian or 2 Southern Lab winning this thing. (That said, Hamilton Christian isn’t bad, certainly a Top 28 team.)
The race for the final playoff spots, however, will be fascinating. 14 Ascension Catholic, 15 Catholic (P.C.), 16 University Academy, 17 Cedar Creek, 18 Hanson Memorial and 19 St. Frederick are all scary close to one another. Plus, they’re all in very similar situations: teams in the middle of the pack/lower half of really good districts and desperately needing wins to make a move into the bracket.
Division V
Not only does everyone make the playoffs, but I don’t see much room for movement here. Plus, the state championship game will be 1 Jehovah-Jireh vs. 2 Grace Christian, so not much drama there either. There might be a little movement in the 9-13 range, but I think it will be minimal.