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<p><strong>The favorite: Carroll</strong> has been one of the most pleasant surprises in 3A this season, entering postseason play with a 16-5 record, a mark that includes quality wins over Kuemper Catholic, ADM, and Gilbert, among others. This is a senior-heavy team, with their top seven scorers all being seniors. [player_tooltip player_id='2413644' first='Jared' last='Mohr'] (14.6, 8.0 rebounds, 4.1 assists) leads the team in scoring and assists, and is second in rebounding behind just [player_tooltip player_id='3255087' first='Lual' last='Tharjiath'] (9.0, 8.1 blocks, 2.9 blocks). Tharjiath has been a revelation in his final year, using his bouncy, long 6-8 frame to protect the rim at an incredibly high level, and his rim protection will be a huge determining factor in just how far the Tigers can go. Trey Tassell (11.6) and [player_tooltip player_id='2413647' first='Mac' last='Collison'] (11.2, 39.6 3P%) are the other big scoring threats for the Tigers, and they can comfortably go seven or eight deep. There are two areas that can be a concern for Carroll – the 3-point line and the free-throw line. They're shooting just 31.7% and 59.9%, respectively, from those two areas, and that could come into play the deeper we get into postseason play.</p>
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<p><strong>The biggest threats: </strong>Defending champion <strong>MOC-Floyd Valley</strong> got off to a slow 4-3 start under new head coach Parker Mulder, but the Dutchmen have caught fire since the holiday break. They enter postseason play having won 13 of their last 14 games, with the lone loss coming to Western Christian. That stretch includes good wins over Boyden-Hull (twice), Unity Christian, Sioux Center, and Rock Valley. Junior forward [player_tooltip player_id='2758688' first='Jacob' last='Mulder'] (14.0, 8.1 rebounds, 58.6 FG%) has been awesome for MOC, anchoring the paint and scoring efficiently. He gives them some size, toughness, and physicality, and the rest of the roster feeds off of it. [player_tooltip player_id='1978131' first='Draeden' last='Punt'] (6.1) isn't a big scorer, but he's arguably the most versatile defender in 3A, capable of protecting the paint or switching onto smaller guards and holding his own on the perimeter. He gives the Dutchmen a lot of different options on that end of the floor. [player_tooltip player_id='3255104' first='Carter' last='Brightwell'] (11.9, 48.4 3P%) and [player_tooltip player_id='1765504' first='Nicolas' last='Ballenger'] (9.5, 40.7 3P%) are both high-level shooters, and key returnee from last year's team [player_tooltip player_id='2887838' first='Carter' last='Van Gelder'] (11.7) does a little bit of everything on both ends of the floor. This is a team that is shooting over 40% from the 3-point line, which would give them a significant edge over Carroll, should they meet in the substate final.</p>
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<p><strong>Sioux Center </strong>split their regular season series with MOC-Floyd Valley, so it certainly wouldn't be a surprise if the Warriors beat the Dutchmen and reached the substate final. Junior wing [player_tooltip player_id='2906403' first='Braedon' last='Perez-Hietbrink'] (17.2) is a versatile three-level scorer who can take over games on the offensive end, and the Warriors have five others averaging between 5.0 and 9.4 points per game, giving them some depth. [player_tooltip player_id='3437328' first='Tyler' last='Moeller'] (9.4, 7.7 rebounds), a senior forward, will be the X-factor if they are going to contend with MOC on the glass and try to limit their production in the paint. Turnovers (15.0 per game) have been an issue at times for Sioux Center, but if they're able to limit the giveaways, they're capable of beating anyone in this substate.</p>
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<p><strong>The dark horse: LeMars</strong> lost to Sioux Center, 71-60, back on January 5 and will be anxious to get a shot at them against in the quarterfinals. If the Bulldogs can pull off that upset, they'll be riding high into a rematch against MOC-Floyd Valley, a team they lost to 62-48 back on January 8. The ‘Dogs are playing better of late, winning three straight heading into postseason play. [player_tooltip player_id='2114193' first='Jackson' last='Wells'] (13.8, 3.8 assists) is a talented junior lead guard who leads the team in scoring and assists, while Tycen Augustine (12.0) and Andrew Grant (10.4) are both viable scoring threats as well. They're a dark horse for a reason, it's not likely, but being tested against 4A schools for a majority of the season prepares them for postseason play and there is enough talent here for the Bulldogs to make some noise.</p>
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<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413644' first='Jared' last='Mohr'] (Carroll)<br>2026 Trey Tassell (Carroll)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413647' first='Mac' last='Collison'] (Carroll)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3255087' first='Lual' last='Tharjiath'] (Carroll)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2758688' first='Jacob' last='Mulder'] (MOC-Floyd Valley)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3255104' first='Carter' last='Brightwell'] (MOC-Floyd Valley)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2887838' first='Carter' last='Van Gelder'] (MOC-Floyd Valley)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1765504' first='Nicolas' last='Ballenger'] (MOC-Floyd Valley)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978131' first='Draeden' last='Punt'] (MOC-Floyd Valley)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2906403' first='Braedon' last='Perez-Hietbrink'] (Sioux Center)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='3437328' first='Tyler' last='Moeller'] (Sioux Center)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2114193' first='Jackson' last='Wells'] (Le Mars)<br>2026 Tycen Augustine (Le Mars)<br>2026 Andrew Grant (Le Mars)<br>2028 [player_tooltip player_id='3424737' first='Evan' last='Stanislav'] (Glenwood)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731811' first='Jack' last='Johnson'] (Glenwood)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2617551' first='Xavier' last='Bowmaker'] (Glenwood)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731882' first='Gage' last='Moreno'] (Saydel)<br>2027 Jacob Oltmanns (Saydel)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731871' first='Gustavo' last='Drahos'] (Perry)<br>2026 Dylan Timmer (Spencer)</p>
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<p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p>
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<p>Carroll vs. MOC-Floyd Valley</p>
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<p>Carroll has been great this season and is a deserving state tournament team, but so is MOC-Floyd Valley. The Dutchmen's strength and physicality in the paint could prove to be too much for a Carroll team that has size, but the Tigers' size is a bit more long and lanky than tough and physical. The defending champions have some players who have been here before and know how to win tough, physical postseason games, and that gives <strong>MOC-Floyd Valley</strong> the edge here. Dutchmen punch their ticket back to Des Moines in a slugfest.</p>
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