Substate Preview: 3A-6

<!-- wp:image {"id":2779258,"sizeSlug":"large","linkDestination":"media"} --> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/3A-6.png"><img src="https://prephoops.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/3A-6.png?w=615" alt="" class="wp-image-2779258" /></a></figure> <!-- /wp:image --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The favorite: </strong>One of two remaining undefeated teams in 3A, <strong>Knoxville</strong> rightfully earned the #1 seed in the substate with a sterling 20-0 record. They are one of two teams in the class (fellow unbeaten Clear Lake) to rank within the top five in both scoring offense (5th, 72.4) and defense (1st, 43.3). The Norris brothers - senior [player_tooltip player_id='1668669' first='Landen' last='Norris'] (19.9, 7.6 rebounds, 59.1 FG%) and sophomore [player_tooltip player_id='2231637' first='Lincoln' last='Norris'] (18.4, 45.5 3P%) - pace the potent offensive attack. Landen is a three-level scorer with size, length, and athleticism, while Lincoln has been on a truly ridiculous heater from the 3-point line seemingly all season long. He has "in the gym" range and when he gets it going, he's impossible to defend. The X-factor for the Panthers, and the Swiss Army knife defensively, is [player_tooltip player_id='2511505' first='Kaiden' last='Smith'], a rangy 6-6/6-7 wing who can defend one through five at this level. [player_tooltip player_id='2731843' first='Drake' last='Larson'] (8.2, 5.3 assists) has been really strong as a lead ball-handler and decision maker as well, posting a 3.42 assist-to-turnover ratio. The biggest question about this group is how much they've been tested, with a strength of schedule that ranks 60th out of 64 teams in 3A according to BC Moore.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The biggest threat:</strong> There's a good chance that <strong>Keokuk</strong> doesn't come out of the bottom of the bracket, they are after all the #3 seed and will have to travel to Mount Vernon. But this is the team that poses the biggest threat to Knoxville because of one player - [player_tooltip player_id='1978100' first='Jaxon' last='Clark'] (22.9, 14.7 rebounds, 2.1 blocks). The 6-10 big man has received interest from Illinois and Purdue, among others around the country, and has the raw size, footwork, physicality, and skill set to be an absolute matchup nightmare for Knoxville. [player_tooltip player_id='1720208' first='Brenton' last='Hoard'] (11.3) is another long wing who can be a force defensively and bully his way to the rim, but the reason this team is dangerous is Clark.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>The dark horse(s): </strong>There are three potential teams outside of those first two mentioned that we could see making a run to the substate final, and subsequently, a substate title - Mount Vernon, Fort Madison, and Oskaloosa. We'll start with <strong>Mount Vernon</strong>, the #2 seed in the substate. The Mustangs have had a really solid season, going 15-5 to this point, riding the 9th ranked scoring defense in 3A (49.5), but they can, at times, struggle to score. Josef Briesemeister (16.6, 7.4 rebounds) and [player_tooltip player_id='2413532' first='Kellen' last='Haverback'] (16.6) are the headliners of the group, both quality options, but if one of them goes cold, they could be in trouble. As the #2 seed, they'll get the semifinal at home, which is a benefit.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Is it likely that <strong>Fort Madison</strong> goes on a run and wins three straight in this substate? No, of course not, they're the #4 seed for a reason. But the Bloodhounds do have four double-figure scorers in [player_tooltip player_id='2731702' first='Nolan' last='Guzman'] (14.8, 4.2 assists), Kenden Bowie (13.2, 6.3 rebounds), [player_tooltip player_id='2511523' first='Dayton' last='Lamar'] (12.6, 7.0 rebounds, 2.5 blocks), and Julian Dear (12.2, 7.2 assists), which makes them a difficult team to prepare for and defend. Dear and Guzman are both talented playmakers who take care of the ball, and Bowie and Lamar hold down the painted area, giving them some balance.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Oskaloosa</strong> has played the toughest schedule of the teams in the substate, including a narrow 2-point loss to #1 seed Knoxville on February 10. The Indians have a really talented sophomore guard in [player_tooltip player_id='2757890' first='Tommy' last='North'] (13.0) leading the charge, and he has had some big-time scoring nights, especially later in the season. It would be a tall task for Osky to make a run all the way to the substate title, but seemingly every year, in some class, a very unexpected team makes a run to the substate final, and Oskaloosa <em>could</em> be that team this year. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline">Players to Watch<br></span>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1668669' first='Landen' last='Norris'] (Knoxville)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2231637' first='Lincoln' last='Norris'] (Knoxville)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2511505' first='Kaiden' last='Smith'] (Knoxville)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='1978100' first='Jaxon' last='Clark'] (Keokuk)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1720208' first='Brenton' last='Hoard'] (Keokuk)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731702' first='Nolan' last='Guzman'] (Fort Madison)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2511523' first='Dayton' last='Lamar'] (Fort Madison)<br>2025 Julian Dear (Fort Madison)<br>2025 Kenden Bowie (Fort Madison)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2886850' first='Aiden' last='Humble'] (Mount Pleasant)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2731795' first='Noah' last='Lange'] (Mount Pleasant)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='1428956' first='Logan' last='McDole'] (Washington)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2419825' first='Nic' last='Stone'] (Washington)<br>2025 Josef Briesemeister (Mount Vernon)<br>2026 [player_tooltip player_id='2413532' first='Kellen' last='Haverback'] (Mount Vernon)<br>2025 [player_tooltip player_id='2165699' first='Riley' last='Perkins'] (Fairfield)<br>2026 Eli Zillman (Fairfield)<br>2027 [player_tooltip player_id='2757890' first='Tommy' last='North'] (Oskaloosa)</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph {"fontSize":"medium"} --> <p class="has-medium-font-size"><strong>SUBSTATE FINAL PREDICTION</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Keokuk at Knoxville</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Knoxville hasn't been to the state tournament since 2000, so getting a home game with a chance to end that drought, I have to imagine the atmosphere in the gym will be intense. The Panthers could struggle with Clark, but the Chiefs will struggle with the perimeter talent and shooting that Knoxville possesses. In a tight, good game, <strong>Knoxville </strong>keeps their undefeated season going and advances to Des Moines for the first time in 25 years.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph -->